PEACE IS NOT GETTING CLOSER

AIM, BELGRADE, April 12, 1995

Milosevic and Recognition of B&H

President of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic has evidently refused the proposal of the international community to recognize Bosnia & Herzegovina in exchange for six months suspension of the sanctions. On Tuesday evening in Belgrade, after a several hours long meeting with the representatives of the Contact Group, only the Russian representative, Alexander Zotov, made a statement for the press, but apart from the phrase that he "feels progress after each meeting with Milosevic", he said nothing "tangible".

The frowning face of the German representative in the Contact Group was much more indicative for the journalists. His bad mood, silence of the other members of the Contact Group and Zotov's statement in monosyllables were sufficient for everyone to understand that the journey to Belgrade marked as "the last try", ended as a failure.

The international community had decided to offer the Serb President Milosevic suspension of the sanctions in exchange for recognition of Bosnia & Herzegovina, but not of Croatia, because it was faced with the increasing certainty of a general escalation of war in Bosnia when the agreement on four months cessation of hostilities expires on April 30.

A curt statement was issued from the office of the President of Serbia after talks of the previous night, which say that the peace plan "is a realistic formula", as "a starting point for a global poliical solution", and that this formula could be the basis for "renewal of negotiations between the parties in conflict".

The offer made in Belgrade was, as it was presented in the world media, the minimum below which the international negotiators did not intend to go. The international mediators abandoned with it the initial intention to demand from Belgrade recognition of all former Yugoslav republics in exchange for suspension of the sanctions.

Contacts between Belgrade and Sarajevo

On the territory of former Yugoslavia, lively diplomatic activities preceded this event, within which the President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic and the Bosnian President Alija Izetbegovic, exchanged messages through mediators on several occasions.

The Bosnian Ambassador in Bern, Muhamed Filipovic, verfired that he had talked with President Milosevic in Belgrade on the possibilities for recognition of Bosnia by the FRY. Filipovic said that Milosevic had not accepted the proposal, but that he had not rejected it either.

Towards the end of last week, a group of intellectuals and journalists from Belgrade travelled to Sarajevo, to establish contacts, among other, with the official authorities. Among them was the former Communist official, Ivan Stambolic, who had once been the rival of the current President Milosevic, and who had withdrawn from the public eye after a fierce conflict with him. Word came from well-informed political circles in Serbia that Stambolic was in fact taking a message from Milosevic to Izetbegovic.

Belgrade is, however, silent about it all, neither verifying nor denying the frequent speculations on the possibilities of recognition of Bosnia under offered conditions. It is indicative, though, that last week a leader of the opposition nationalistic Democratic Party (DS), Zoran Djindjic, slightly changed his rigid stance concerning recognition of Bosnia.

After his visit to Pale where he had met the President of the Republic of Srpska, Radovan Karadzic, Djindjic said that he had advised Karadzic to start a new peace initiative and establish the minimum Pale would not cross. The "minimum' for Djindjic is the existence of "some form" of Bosnia & Herzegovina, which Karadzic is still not ready to accept.

Djindjic's party is part of the so-called "Serb national block" among the opposition parties, which is the only one that persisted in supporting the struggle of the Bosnian Serbs for a separate state after the split between Belgrade and Pale in August 1994. The fact that the DS decided to revise its rigid stance shows that some wavering has appeared among the supporters of the hard-core Serb national policy, which objectively weakens the position of Karadzic.

On April 11, in Belgrade, this same party then offered its own plan for peace process on the territory of former Yugoslavia, demanding direct negotiations of the parties in conflict, with taking into consideration the diplomatic activities of the international community. In a document pompously titled "Declaration of the DS on the Possibilities for Resolution of Crisis in Former Yugoslavia", the DS proposed convening of a new international conference on the topic.

Bosnian Serbs Believe in Belgrade

Bosnian Serbs have scheduled a session of their parliament for April 14 and 15. One of the major issues on the agenda will be the proposal for establishment of a confederation between the Republic of Srpska (RS) and the Republic of Serb Krajina (RSK). Only a part of the leadership from Krajina is inclined towards the union, and it is still uncertain what will the response be to the latest initiative from Pale.

By launching the idea on the confederation, Karadzic is obviously trying to organize a political and military front of the Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia in order to oppose the efforts to have Belgrade agree to concessions such as recognition of Bosnia or Croatia.

In the course of last week, two high officials from Pale, the president of the parliament, Momcilo Krajisnik, and the vice president of the RS, Nikola Koljevic, declared that they did not expect Belgrade would recognize Bosnia & Herzegovina. They still believe that with such an act Milosevic would deny everything he had done in the past almost ten years, and that it would be difficult for him to remain in power after such a great shift.

Dragan Janjic