TO SPLIT BY TRAIN

AIM, ZAGREB, April 6, 1995 As it could be assumed already after Mr Ghali submitted his report to the UN Security Council, now that Resolution 981 about the new UN peace forces in Croatia has finally been adopted and published, it has become quite clear that Croatia has practically achieved nothing. It turned out that Drazen Budisa was right when he predicted right after Copenhagen, that it is a matter of just cosmetic changes. Or Stjepan Mesic who picturesquely and folksly described it with "it is not shit, but it was shat by a dog".

The opposition in general, with certain exceptions such as, for instance, the Istrian Democratic Assembly, is sharply criticizing the Croat President for giving in, claiming that the new Resolution means nothing else but that UNPROFOR is leaving and UNCRO is staying, and that it does not even resemble what has been publicized in Copenhagen. Everybody agrees, however, that it is a great thing that the Security Council has once again confirmed the territorial integrity of the Republic of Croatia, but they also wonder how supervision of the recognized borders will be carried out, and what kind of integrity it is when representatives of the authorities from Knin are treated as equal partners, as international subjects almost.

But, it is interesting what the oppositionists are offering as their contribution to finding a way out of this stalemate which, they claim, is pushing Croatia towards a situation similar to that of Cyprus. Stjepan Mesic, the leader of Croatian Independent Democrats, claims that "this Resolution is the result of a wrong Croat policy which still believes that Bosnia can be divided in an agreement with Milosevic, and that he will in return give 'Krajina' back to Croatia. Croatia has no conception of its own policy, it keeps expecting that somebody else will solve its problems. Croatian authorities have pursued wrong policy concerning Bosnia and it must get rid of those who have pushed it into the war with the Muslims, just as they must get rid of such individuals on their side. But, let everybody sweep away in front of their doorstep first".

The President of the strongest opposition party HSLS, Drazen Budisa, goes along the same lines, but he is more explicit: "I am in favour of the war option, in close cooperation with the Army of B&H should, diplomatic efforts bring no results. As things appear at the moment, our diplomatic activities have failed, and Croatia is expected to accept the status quo, to accept officially the situation like in Cyprus. I think that the Croats should not act as if the Security Council were their political leadership".

Representatives of some other parties, especially of the Croatian Party of Right, also see this direct connection between Bosnia and Croatia, and they believe that the solution should primarily be sought in an alliance with the Muslims, as well as in a definite abandoning of the idea about division of Bosnia. They publicly state fears that Muslims could otherwise seek solution in cooperation with the Serbs, and Izetbegovic's absence from Washington as well as the latest statement of B&H Ambassador, Muhamed Filipovic, are taken as highly serious warnings.

Croat official policy has obviously decided to take the completely opposite course of action, rejecting for the moment even the slightest notion of a war option. Thus, the Chairman of the Assembly, Vladimir Seks, stated the other day that the Croats had waited to have their state for too long to risk to lose it now by making adventurous moves and jeopardizing even what they had. With just a bitter smile he commented on the question whether he knew that the people called the Z-4 plan - "forget about one-fourth"? The state press joined in the defence of this curious turn - as the Secretary General of the HSLS, Bozo Kovacevic calls it - in which Croatia first vigorously announced departure of UNPROFOR and then we were witnesses to a feverish struggle of Croat representatives to have the resolution which establishes the presence of peace forces adopted.

The Editor-in-Chief of the Croat newspaper with the largest circulation, Vecernji list, Branko Tudjen, writes in this sense: "What did Milosevic have and what does he have now? Let us leave the empty talk, and let us look seven or eight years back, let us look at what he had, and where Croatia and Tudjman were then and what they have done in the meantime. Milosevic received a series of heavy blows in

1. Failure with introduction of the state of emergency, giving up Slovenia, aggression on Croatia which has Milosevic's capitulation in Den Haag as its outcome - Badinter and international recognition of the two republics. Several months later, Macedonia left, which directly meant annulment of the Serb victory in the Second Balkan War, according to Greater-Serbia criteria. Then war in Bosnia began, whose end is not in view yet. And the result of all that? Let us travel by the highway, let us read NIN, let us listen to the radio... These are the effects ofpolicy of this allegedly successful politician. And as for us, just another appeal to be patient".

The message of this text, and there are many similar to it, is quite clear. We must be patient, because what Croatia has lost in the war, it will regain by peace. The culmination of such optimism is the statement of President Tudjman made on Tuesday, April 4, that the process of peaceful reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories would continue, and that he would soon come to Split by train with his associates, by the railway which passes through Knin. It is difficult to judge whether this announcement is just a gush of euphoria, or a realistic assessment of the situation, but it cannot hurt to remind that the Croat Minister of Defence promised that he would buy coffee for everyone in Drnis back in 1993.

Although April 21 is still ahead of us, when Mr Ghali is expected to propose measures for implementation of the mandate of UNCRO in Croatia, needed in order to make the final assessment of the "great Croat diplomatic victory", one could say with no doubt that the political situation is extremely complex. So far the results of Croatia's giving in can be neither seen nor felt, because the agreement about rescheduling debts with the Paris Club or several minor loans could hardly be the price for such a salto mortale. Rising political dissatisfaction which is primarily characterized by confusion, is accompanied lately by social upheaval which will hardly be curbed by the policy of the Government which continues to get rid of everything that is unprofitable without making investments into new production at the same time. The ruling HDZ has also definitely split, whose rightist faction is already openly criticizing Tudjman.

The rule of the HDZ is shaken by a series of other unexpected developments and processes, such as the decision of the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Croatia to abolish the tax levied on "Herald Tribune" and to cancel appointment of judges of the Supreme Court by the State Judicial Council, which caused resignation of the Minister of Justice, Ivica Crnic. The news that the Government of the Republic of Croatia has nominated Krunislav Olujic for the President of the Supreme Court was received with great surprise, since he is now the head of the Office for National Security, which means that the current President, Milan Vukovic, is definitely relieved from his post. There is a number of various details which speak of an intense conflict between the hard-core rightists and the moderates in the party, and that Tudjman has evidently now chosen the moderate variant, since he has always courted first the ones, and then the others.

This will certainly reflect on the relations in the Assembly as well, but especially on the next elections which some believe will be early. Drazen Budisa announced several days ago establishment of election committees of the HSLS, because according to the assessment of his party, HDZ could lose the majority in the Assembly. But, there are other opinions as well: the time until August 1996 when regular elections are due, Tudjman will try to use for consolidation of his party and reestablishment of trust. In this context, travelling to Split by train via Knin would be something like "action Maslenica" so necessary to prove the victorious march of his policy in the last minute.

In this context, reestablishment of trust which was not lost because the people wished to go to war, but because of sowing of illusions, actions of the Association of Refugees is also interesting, which openly declared itself against Resolution 981, because it does not anticipate their return. The President of this organization, Mato Simic, who has announced his resignation, seems to have abandoned the idea, but according to what he keeps saying he will allow again these poor people be abused for the sake of petty-politics. Refugees will, similarly as last summer, start protests, blockades and various actions again, in order to pressure the world public, but the Croat Government as well, to begin finally seriously considering the possibility for their return.

Croat authorities have also to finish the very complex job of settling relations with B&H and within the B&H Federation, and it also must finally take a stand in relation to the offensive of the B&H Army, because it would be very dangerous to lose the only military ally. All this might be an indication that concerning the territory of Croatia, Tudjman did chose peaceful reintegration, but that he will to a certain extent participate in military operations in Bosnia, as news from Bosnian battlefields already prove.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC