...PERHAPS WAR!?

Some time ago an analysis made by CIA, the American Central Intelligence Agency, carried also by the German radio "Deutsche Velle" forecast the possible outbreak of war in Kosovo, no less than in a couple of months. A few months before that, when forecasting developments in Kosovo, the same agency stated that the problem of Kosovo would be solved by 1996. The year was thus specified, but it remains open whether the solution to this major problem - Kosovo - implies war. It is a fact that such pieces of information do not leave the local citizens exactly indifferent. The long-lasting state of neither war nor peace continues in Kosovo and it is uncertain when an end to it might be in sight...

Both the Serbian and the Albanian side see dialogue as one of the most reasonable solutions. But, nothing has moved from a standstill yet. Both sides are still striving to win better political positions - both because of stronger international pressure tomorrow and because of their own people.

It is a fact that no serious conversation can be conducted when the stronger side manifests its strength through the use of force, or repression as it is called here. Deliberately or not, the negotiating table is a priori rejected through the created atmosphere of fear. Needless to say, in Kosovo it is never known which straw will break the camel's back and what could cause the conflagration of the conflict. Until very recently local prominent circles thought that the last straw for the conservative Albanians would be the news on the rape of their compatriot. This recently happened in Gnjilane, and was committed by a member of the Gnjilane Department of the Interior, to make the irony even greater. But, nothing happened. Neither the cowboy shooting, nor the killing and wounding of a number of citizens of the capital of Kosovo, again by the police, have caused the rebellion of the majority Albanians. Glaring and very dangerous cases. "Internal anger is there and it is difficult to guarantee for a long time to come that the non-violent conduct of the Albanians can last for ever", say those who know the mentality of this region well.

All this, coupled with the coming into force of the Decree of the Federal Government on the settlement of Kosovo by Serbs and Montenegrins, i.e. the tactless statements of the representatives of some radical circles, that "a solution to Kosovo can be arrived at only after an ethnic balance is struck", and that is actually possible only if ethnic cleansing is rigorously applied, the appetites of the "Nikola Pasic" fraction of the Serbian Radical Party which demands that even 200 thousand Serbs be settled in this area, the latest foreign currency law and the territorial management plan whose draft is being prepared, then it is clear in what mood every idea on the establishment of a dialogue between the Serbs and the Albanians at an early date is received here.

In a recent meeting with the press representatives of the Party for National Unity, UNIKOMB, stated that "16,200 criminals and different delinquents which the regime would use to colonize Kosovo, are currently in Serbian prisons. According to an internal poll, says this party, which was conducted in prisons in Serbia, about 15 thousand of them are willing to come to Kosovo in exchange for their freedom".

Irrespective of whether this figure is correct or not, the opinion advocated by the leader of the Kosovo Albanians, Dr.Ibrahim Rugova, is most widespread, namely that "the greatest danger are the accumulated police and army forces in Kosovo, but that the Albanian people will not be allowed to fall for the provocations of the Serbian authorities". This does not mean that this statement of Rugova's did not irritate some intellectuals and circles on the Albanian political scene. Their differences range from the fact that changes are necessary in respect of the policy pursued so far, to rumours that protest gatherings, demonstrations or some other form of civil disobedience should be organized. The most influential party of the Albanians of Kosovo, DSK, is cautious: "All this could provoke the current Serbian authorities and any attempt at the so called "radicalization" of the situation would lead to a catastrophe".

But, to go back to the beginning of the story. The possibility of the spreading of the war to the southern part of the former Yugoslavia was never ruled out. It is a hackneyed phrase "that everything began in Kosovo and everything will end there", but the fact cannot be escaped that the Yugoslav crisis started precisely in Kosovo and that perhaps everything might end there. In any case, there are numerous foreign experts on Balkan issues and those dealing with the opus and figure of Slobodan Milosevic, who claim that he is "saving Kosovo as his trump card". The Director of the Sector for Eastern Europe of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, Janos Bugajsky explained this as follows: "If he loses everything in the north, then he will use Kosovo for the reawakening of nationalism".

On the other hand, the termination of UNPROFOR's mandate by Croatia is interpreted by some analysts as an opportunity for war to break out again in Croatia, and the Croatian television in its show "Picture versus Picture" broadcast the reports of a number of foreign agencies which do not rule out the possibility of the outbreak of conflicts in Kosovo too. On the same programme, the American Defence Minister, William Perry, announced the arrival of a new contingent of American troops to Macedonia, which instilled an additional dose of fear of possible war among the Kosovo Albanians.

Although there are many of those who still remember the statements both of the former President George Bush and the current US President, Bill Clinton, "that America will not allow war in Kosovo", Mr.Janos Bugajsky seems a bit skeptical. He says that matters concerning a possible USA intervention in case war should break out in Kosovo have not been concretely elaborated in the White House. Namely, he goes on "it is not known what would be the climax of the repressive offensive on the part of Serbia which would provoke an American response".

The opinion "that it takes two sides to wage war" prevailed for a long time in Kosovo. However, in an interview to the political weekly in the Albanian language, KOHA, the editor-in-chief of the independent Sarajevo magazine DANI, Senad Pecanin, said that only shortly before war broke out in Bosnia and Herzegovina, president Alija Izetbegovic had also said that two sides would be necessary for war: "If the Serbs want war, we do not want it", said Izetbegovic then. Pecanin today comments on his statement: "This experience has taught us in Bosnia that one side is enough for war. Therefore, it is useless to speak about whether the Albanians want war or not and whether they are preparing for it or not".

Messages coming from the international scene to the effect that the exclusivity of the Serbian top political leadership that Kosovo is Serbia's internal problem and its territory, and that it will be so at any cost, and the resolute demand of the Albanians on the other hand for an independent Kosovo, inevitably lead to war. This inexhaustible subject can on this occasion be concluded with the words of the former renowned politician and sociologist Mahmut Bakali: " It seems that everyone is forgetting that the further prolonging of this state of neither war nor peace and any attempt to institutionalize this "status quo" leads directly to conflict".

Besim ABAZI AIM Pristina