BELGRADE INCREASES ITS DEMANDS

AIM, Belgrade, February, 25 1995

Negotiations about mutual recognition of ex-Yu states

Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic stipulates the condition - first, lifting of the sanctions and then, continuation of negotiations, and Yugoslav foreign minister, Vladislav Jovanovic, sarcastically denies that Belgrade and Zagreb will soon recognize each other, as Croatian President Tudjman announced not long ago.

Not even after three-days long negotiations (February 17-19 in Karadjordjevo) did the Russian chief of diplomacy, Andrey Kozirev, according to what most of commentators think, succeed to convince the President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, to accept the proposal made by the Contact Group which offered conditional lifting of the sanctions during two months, if Serbia recognized Bosnia&Herzegovina and closed the border on the Drina. Yugoslav Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vladislav Jovanovic, a participant in the talks, claimed on Friday, February 24, however, that mutual recognition was not even on the agenda of the talks with Kozirev, but that these and other "informal" meetings were used for an exchange of opinions on "various ideas and possibilities which are in an initial phase and which will be subjects of future contacts". FoNet correspondent from Moscow, Branko Stosic, was told by a representative of the Russian Foreign Ministray that Kozirev's visit was "considered a success", but that the possibility that negotiators would use "various tricks" should not be excluded. A Russian diplomat stated for news agencies Beta and Interfax that "all the parties involved in resolving the problem significantly increased their demands, which is only natural - the closer the resolution of the problem, the greater the stakes".

Belgrade weekly "Telegraf" which was the one that revealed a quite precise version of the Z-4 plan, on Wednesday February 22, published that Milosevic had agreed to recognize Bosnia and Croatia during the talks with Kozirev - in exchange for complete lifting of the sanctions, the right of the FRY to succession, and a lasting ceasefire. According to a plan of eight items which was presented to Kozirev by Milosevic, according to what "Telegraf" writes, everything would be resolved at a new summit meeting of leaders of all Yugoslav republics which would be held under the auspices of the International Conference on Former Yugoslavia before the mandate of UNPROFOR in Croatia expires, and which would be attended by the President of the FRY, Zoran Lilic, too, "as a concession to Milosevic's demand for succession".

All the republics would recognize each other, but each one would be able to formulate the reserves it has in relation to it, according to the following principle - "while constituting nations in the republics do not reach an agreement on internal system, territorial demarcation and other disputable issues", when Bosnia is concerned, or "that Serbs in Krajina and the administration of the Republic of Croatia reach an agreement based on Z-4 plan". "Police and monitoring" forces would be posted along all the borders in former Yugoslavia, controlled by the International Conference on Former Yugoslavia (ICFY), with broader authorizations than for the mission on the Drina river. The mandate of UNPROFOR in Croatia would be "partially changed", and its name would be changed into Monitoring Forces of the ICFY. In this way, the journal states, the danger of an outbreak of a new war after March 31 would be reduced, and "Tudjman's demand that UNPROFOR leave would formally be satisfied".

Former Yugoslav foreign minister, Ilija Djukic, in a conversation with a journalist from the independent weekly "Vreme" assesses that this version cannot be denied a certain authenticity, "or at least, one can say that it does not sound unrealistic". Djukic believes that a phase of the ex-Yugoslav crisis has reached its end. But, the current Yugoslav foreign Minister, Vladislav Jovanovic, after a closed session of the Foreign Policy Committee of both Chambers of the FRY Assembly, on Friday, February 24, denied for the press that the President of Serbia had promised to recognize Croatia and Bosnia&Herzegovina, claiming that it was an "ordinary newspaper canard". The statement of Croatian President Tudjman that Belgrade and Zagreb could mutually recognize each other by the end of March was commented on by Jovanovic with sarcasm: "Tudjman obviously has certain reasons which enable him to foretell a certain date, we have no such reasons". Croat Minister of foreign affairs, Mate Granic will come to Belgrade "when we agree about the time for his visit". The announced summit of Milosevic, Tudjman and Izetbegovic in Belgrade has neither been considered "nor is there any decision about it".

Several days before this, in an interview to "The New York Times", Jovanovic accused Croatia of "shameful behavior" towards the Serbs and made it clear that recognition of Croatia was not possible in the near future due to "the unfortunate, harmful and unconstructive decision" of the Croatian President to cancel the mandate of UNPROFOR. He accused Zagreb of sabotaging "a gradual but efficient" peace process. According to what he thinks, the problem between Croatia and Krajina should be resolved gradually, by establishing economic relations, opening of the border between Krajina and Croatia and offering guarantees to the Serbs that they would be properly treated. After that, Jovanovic said, the Serbs in Krajina "should be left under protection of the United Nations for several more years", and then, after four or five years of establishing mutual confidence, when Croatia would become a potential member of the European Union, the Serbs would, maybe, consider the issue of reintegration, Jovanovic declared and added that "formal recognition of Croatia" would be the "culmination of this process".

According to Jovanovic, recognition of Bosnia&Herzegovina at this moment is also unreasonable, because that country is dismembered. "The situation on site is not clear - you have the former Yugoslav republic B&H, the Muslim-Croat federation and the Serb entity there. Who should we recognize?" - Jovanovic stresses, who believes that the first step in Bosnia should be recognition of the right to an equal treatment for the Serbs over there as the Muslim-Croat federation has, which means "the right to enter a confederation with us".

Some American journals call Jovanovic the main bearer of the campaign for lifting of the sanctions, who almost daily sends word to the international community that the first step towards resolving of the crisis in the Balkans begins with complete lifting of the sanctions imposed on Serbia and Montenegro, which would in the end, when this and all other conditions of Belgrade are fulfilled, enable mutual recognition of former Yugoslav republics. To the question of a reporter from the FRY Assembly what are the chances for lifting of the sanctions, he answers that there is a great need for that and that it is urgent and growing on all sides, and that the FRY "is vitally interested" for the initiative of Greece that neighbouring countries should address a demarche to the Security Council of the UN because of the sanctions. After the meeting of Milosevic with the envoy of the UN Secretary General, Asushi Akashi, Belgrade state media kept stressing Milosevic's sentence in which he suggested that UN Security Council should reach a "positive, tangible decision". In the pending negotiations Belgrade is obviously increasing its demands which is, probably, motivated by internal political reasons.

Seselj's Radicals and Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia keep repeating the words "recognition" and "treason". Seselj's rally in Kragujevac, where the leader of Serbian Radicals accused Milosevic of having "blocked the Drina because of bread crumbs", was attended by about 10 thousand people, which is news considering the fact that this party has never before managed to organize mass demonstrations. Before Kozirev's visit to Belgrade, nervousness grew among the Bosnian Serbs - the assembly of the "Republic of Srpska" held on February 14 in Samac, addressed an embittered letter in which they reminded Milosevic of the slogan "Serbia will never stoop", and the bishop of Zahumlje and Herzegovina, Atanasije appealed to deputies "not to sign any capitulation". According to one version, several members of a pro-Milosevic "Dodig's" group, visited Karadjordjevo, and the foreign minister of the "Republic of Serbian Krajina", Buha, came to Belgrade last week "to visit his family" and met with Minister Jovanovic on the occasion, "as part of an effort" to resolve the problems faced by the Serbian nation through "mutual agreement".

On Tuesday, February 21, the spokesman of the US Administration, Christine Shelley, stated without going into details, that the US administration was "in contact" with President Milosevic, that there was a difference between his private and public statements, and that this might mean that he sought a formula for lifting the sanctions. An American official said later that Milosevic would like to see complete and unconditional lifting of the sanctions before he even considered recognition of Bosnia and Croatia, but that this was unacceptable for the USA.

On February 23, President Milosevic received political directors of foreign ministries of Great Britain, France and Germany to talk "about the issues significant for further progress of the peace process". The details about the meeting are still unknown, with the exception of a vague hint in the statement of the spokesman of French foreign ministry that it was "necessary to make a diplomatic breakthrough now more than ever". Representatives of countries members of the Contact Group, according to what agency "Beta" says, left Belgrade with "mixed feelings". This agency, referring to diplomatic sources, announces that they could come to Belgrade again in the same composition or "enforced" with the American and Russian representatives, to hear Milosevic's reply to the offered proposals which, as stated, "quite certainly" are not an offer of complete lifting of the sanctions in exchange for recognition of Croatia and Bosnia&Herzegovina. This means that the end is still not in sight.

Milan Milosevic