BOTH PEACE AND WAR IN SIGHT

Aleksandar Nenadovic Changes and Illusions

AIM, BEOGRAD, February 10, 1995

While waiting for a partner for a game of chess in Politika's Club after his retirement, the founding father of Yugoslav political caricature, Pjer Krizanic, used to joke with the foreign policy commentators asking them: "Come on you know-it-alls, tell us: will war break out?" Attempting to return tit for tat, one of them made everybody laugh repeating the then popular Russian dissident joke: "No, there will be no war, but in the fierce fight for peace, everything will be razed to the ground!".

It goes without saying that these are no times for carefree jokes, and the balance of power and impotence in Europe after the cold war has been fundamentally changed. There no longer exist irreconcilable ideological - military camps; as if the former deadly enemies are becoming political partners. But, to no avail. As if that global change for the better does not apply to our region.

While the greater part of Europe and of the world is moving away from the danger of large scale wars, here, in the center of the Balkans, a new "black hole" has opened up. Viewed from it, Europe, integrating in the name of more harmonious, civilized development, looks like another, for us, unreachable planet. Here, history continues to be "created" mainly with cannon, hand grenades and knives; as if, under the curse of some greater powers, it is destined to repeat itself as a bloody farce. It remains, in any case, shrouded in ruthless manipulations in the name of defending sacrosanct cults for which the state is more important than human freedom, and the defence of the might of the stronger more important even than the future of one's own people.

This, perhaps only illusory paradox, evokes bitter comparisons. Don't you, for example, think that the present uncertainties regarding the choice between the peaceful settlement and the continuation of the war in Croatia and Bosnia, have an ominous similarity with the situation alluded to in the joke from the cold war past? Precisely when, after Carter's "peace breakthrough" at Pale and the initial rapprochement between Zagreb and Knin, it seemed that possibilities for resolving the situation were growing, the danger of even broader armed conflicts started suddenly intensifying.

After exhausting discussions, the UNPROFOR Command managed, late last week, to obtain the consent of the warring sides for opening the "blue roads" in the violence-torn Sarajevo and its surroundings. Humanitarian aid has started arriving more safely and more regularly to other parts of Bosnia too. But, as ill-luck would have it, just as hope emerged that the sufferings of the city almost three years under the seige of Serbian weapons would be at least mitigated, grenades again started falling on Sarajevo in the middle of this week.

To make the irony even greater, somehow at the same time, on both sides of the politcal barricades, statements which look like unexpected manifestations of infinite goodwill were made. First Alija Izetbegovic, before journalists in Sarajevo, uttered a sentence, which will if it stands the test which follows, be remembered as a courageous act of statesmanship wisdom: "There are things in life which have to be done". It was the reply to the question of whether the Bosnian President was ready to negotiate with Radovan Karadzic, leader of the Bosnian Serbs.

A day later, a somewhat politically reticent but rhetorically sufficiently promising reply came from Pale. Karadzic sent a message to his main rival in Sarajevo saying that the "Serbian side does not set any preconditions for the negotiations" and that the "Serbian people harbours no enmity against the Moslem people" but does not desist from repeating the standard, ambiguous warning that the "negotiations imply equitable treatment of all the parties to the conflict".

"Eppur si muove", doesn't it. For, if there is reason to believe that these statements are irrevocable, both warring sides in Bosnia could meet half way with those they depend on. The government in Sarajevo would, because of "things which have to be done" give up its, probably futile pressures on America to unilaterally lift the arms embargo. Instead of dreaming of charges on the battle field, which would bring back what it had lost in this unequal war, it would try to attain that by meeting with its main opponent at the negotiating table.

For their part, the Serbian leaders at Pale, instead of opposing the entire world, even Belgrade, to their own detriment, should listen to the advice repeated to them this week by the head of the Belgrade diplomacy "to come back to earth", i.e. join the strategy Milosevic's authorities in Belgrade are in charge of.

Perhaps neither these Bosnian statements nor the Belgrade recommendations should be neglected. But, sight should not be lost of what could be heard the same day, or just before that. Here are just two quotations:

Izetbegovic: "Our government will continue its diplomatic efforts, but we shall go on building our own army, which has during the war grown from 18,000 to 200 thousand soldiers".

Karadzic: "If pressures on us continue, we shall unite the Republic of Srpska and the Republic of Serbian Krajina and the world will have to recognize that...It is not late to unite even now and put the world before a fait accompli. Giving in to pressures from the West is a historic disaster, we must remain firm and we shall win..."

So as to make it clear to whom the Pale leader with pan-Serbian aspiration is alluding, there is the sharp warning to the Belgrade authorities that only the Republic of Srpska can lift the sanctions on FRY. And that, primarily "by its firm position and military victories".

Karadzic can really not be reproached that he is not speaking his mind. And those who think that he is plunging into isolation which will force him to submit to Belgrade, can only guess whether the spring will bring relative peace or even fiercer war to Bosnia.

Things are not much better on the Croatian proving grounds of the Yugoslav tragedy. Tudjman's decision to terminate UNPROFOR's mandate on March 31, has caused much consternation both among the Krajina Serbs and all Croatia's foreign partners. Primarily, the Americans and other big western forces on whose support the future of Croatia's economy and even politics crucially depend. For instance, American Ambassdor Galbright, warns Zagreb that if it drives UNPROFOR away it cannot count on American help. Even less on the possibility for NATO to enter the territories from which Tudjman is driving away the "blue helmets".

Evidently shaken by such and similar warnings, the Croatian government generously gives promises that it wishes only the "peaceful reintegration of occupied territories". It turns out that, despite horrifying tensions, there will be no war after all. Don't be too sure. The outcome, in any case, also depends on the Serbian authorities in Knin, which Karadzic is trying with all his might to tie to Pale, while Belgrade, from the background, is pushing them into negotiations. It is very difficult to say who will win, especially after the decision of the Assembly of Knin to freeze the already made economic agreements with the Government in Zagreb.

At the same time, despite heated oratory and all sorts of other temptations, the political communications between Belgrade and Zagreb remain, it seems, active. Not only formally, through the "liaison offices" in the two capitals, but also behind the war and belligerent scenes, especially between Milosevic and Tudjman, who are said to be in almost ideal harmony.

But, even on the very bold assumption that this harmony is not only firm but also extremely benevolent towards the other participants, i.e. victims of the nationalistic war adventure, it is difficult to overlook the sorrowful scenes on the other side of the same medal. Currently, the situation is, to say the least, confusing: just as you think that the truce could last and that peace is no longer wishful thinking, there comes, from one or the other side, a cold shower.

Among the ideological, political and military leaders on which our future crucially depends, the most numerous or the most persistent are those who consciously or inadvertently act as self-styled illusionists in the Balkan political cabaret. As if they have convinced themselves that they can, along the same road and at the same time, move in both directions - both towards war and towards peace.

How long could that last?

If at Pale, in Sarajevo, Knin, Zagreb, Belgrade and everywhere where decisions on the "higher interests" of the nation, state and religion are made, such positions remain unchanged, what are our prospects? If power gained by political or armed violence is more important than everything, even peace - what can be expected upon the expiry of the winter truces? The lesser the democratic political control over nationalistic bullies - if it exists at all - the greater the danger. (AIM)