MAINLY QUARRELS IN THE "FAMILY" FOR THE TIME BEING

Discord Among the Bosnian Serbs

Summary:

Milosevic is trying to take advantage of the discord between Pale and Banja Luka to exert pressure on Karadzic. Banja Luka wants more power, but it is not certain if it accepts the peace plan. Pale still control the situation.

AIM, BEOGRAD, February 4, 1995

The crack which appeared in the unified block of the Bosnian Serbs is widening. It is most glaringly manifested through the conflict of interests between the region of Banja Luka, the largest enclave in Bosnia, and the central authorities at Pale.

The region of Banja Luka is in every way dominant in the area controlled by the Bosnian Serbs. It gives most soldiers, most deputies to Parliament, over two thirds of the economic facilities of the Serbian authorities are located there.

While Yugoslavia was still one state and Bosnia and Herzegovina its federal republic, the region of Banja Luka opposed the domination of the center in Sarajevo. At the time the Moslems, Croats and Serbs of Banja Luka formed a unified block striving to affirm the interests of their common region.

Today, there are almost no Moslems and Croats in Banja Luka and the conflict with the central authorities, this time located at the former Sarajevo picnic grounds at Pale, is very far from an inter-regional "healthy competitive spirit".

The Serbian population in Banja Luka truly feels exploited. Apart from giving most of the soldiers and the lion share of goods that the Republic of Srpska is producing, it lives on an area whose survival literally depends on a narrow strip of land near Brcko, the so called "Posavina corridor".

People in that area do not "lean" on Serbia and Yugoslavia and cannot easily escape over the Drina river if the front lines were seriously endangered. Consequently their constant need to exert much more influence than hitherto on developments within the central authorities, or to be the "bosses", just as they are the strongest when it comes to manpower for the army and economy.

What Does the Opposition Want and What the SDS?

In other parts of the Republic of Srpska there is practically no resistance to the central authorities at Pale. Banja Luka is the center of all the opposition parties of different orientations, from hard core nationalistic ones, such as the Serbian Radical Party, to the somewhat more moderate Socialists and Liberals. There is also the very strong regional organization of the ruling Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) of the Serbian lands, which also is not always in "full agreement" with the headquarters at Pale.

Officially, the SDS of Banja Luka exclusively engages in criticism because their region is neglected. Thus, for instance, the President of the Banja Luka Government, Rajko Kasagic, a member of the top leadership of the SDS, usually does not skip the opportunity of saying that "perhaps as much as 90 percent of the economy of the Republic of Srpska" is concentrated in the Banja Luka region, but he is always ready to defend the global policy of Pale.

Opposition parties outside Parliament have substantially different requests and quite overtly criticise the authorities. Thus, on January 26, the leaderships of the Serbian Democratic Alliance, the People's Radical Party, the Serbian Radical Party and the Socialist Party met in Prijedor. It seems that the opposition parties were more concerned with political issues than with the economy at that meeting. They issued a demand for calling new elections, requested that Parliament adjust the electoral law to the needs of all parties and not only those in Parliament, asked for equal treatment in the media and called for the "political unity" of the Serbian people.

Milosevic on the Offensive

The President of Serbia, Slobodan Milosevic, long ago realized the importance of the evident differences between Pale and Banja Luka and is now trying to make use of them in his efforts to "soften" Karadzic and make him negotiate. First of all, last month, he convened a meeting of the newly formed group of seven independent deputies and the Contact Group staying in Belgrade. The authorities at Pale harshly condemned this, emphasizing that a "marginal political group", which Belgrade was trying to instrumentalize, was in question.

Last Wednesday Milosevic received over 50 economists, mainly from the Banja Luka region. Judging by the information published in the Belgrade press, the main topic of the talks was the peace process, and Milosevic on the whole front page of Politika and in prime time News programmes explained to his guests the importance of continuing the peace process and accepting the plan, which they listened to carefully. Already tomorrow Rajko Kasagic said that the economists had gone to Belgrade after a preliminary agreement with Pale and Radovan Karadzic and that their main task was to look into possibilities for renewing economic cooperation. He added that he was of the opinion that at the moment it was very important to avoid any form of political confrontation. That same day, a statament was made by the President of the Parliament of Bosnian Serbs, Momcilo Krajisnik, who confirmed that the economists went to Belgrade with the knowledge of the Pale authorities and said that he expected a report on the contents of the talks. He assessed that political issues were imposed on the talks and that he believed that mainly economic relations were discussed.

The group which Milosevic received on Wednesday was evidently mixed. In addition to directors loyal to the Pale authorities, there were also others, ready for political cooperation with Milosevic. This was, in a certain way, confirmed by Krajisnik himself, saying that it was probable for such a large group to contain people whose aim is not only economic cooperation.

What Can Milosevic Count On

However, it is still highly disputable to which extent the disagreements between the Banja Luka region and Pale are a matter of "family quarrels" among the Bosnian Serbs themselves and to which extent they can realistically be used for more serious political changes. Probably the most important question is the attitude towards the peace plan of the Contact Group, but for the time being, there are no reliable indications that any of the streams in the Republic of Srpska opposed to Karadzic is ready to accept that document. Thus, for instance, even opposition parties speak about the need for creating a "unified Serbian state in the Balkans in the ethnic Serbian areas". That, like the stances of the SDS people from the Banja Luka region, is completely contrary to the provisions of the peace plan.

The most disputable issue for Banja Luka are certainly the maps on territorial division which practically eliminate the "corridor" and of no less importance are the demands to return the territories held by the Serbs. Namely, the people of Krajina know that precisely they have to return considerable territories which they have taken and do not seem ready to do that.

Naturally, the region of the Republic of Srpska in the economic and every other respect depends on Serbia and Yugoslavia and it is logical to assume that Milosevic, if he had sufficient time to shuffle the "political cards" and implement the strategy of "gradually undermining" Karadzic's position, could finally force the outcome he wants. But, there is not much time. The leadership at Pale has also, naturally, realized what Milosevic wants, and has taken a number of measures to prevent a "silent coup" in Parliament. The SDS leadership held meetings offering support to the ruling team, and reshuffling of the Government is announced for Friday. The authorities at Pale thereby wish to show how democratic they are and ready to substitute ministers performing poorly, and it is certain that they will take this opportunity to "cleanse" the Government of people they deem suspicious in respect of possible cooperation with Milosevic.

Dragan Janjic