A SEASON OF SOCIAL UNREST

AIM, Skopje, January 15, 1995

Now when accounts are balanced in all aspects of life, and therefore in the economy as well, it is not difficult to conclude that 1995 will be a year of social unrest in Macedonia. Strikes of workers of well known firms in front of the parliament building which lasted for days towards the end of December announced that this could be expected. Workers of the famous wood industries "Treska" are on strike for weeks now. Workers of FAS "11 Oktobri", which was once known in the whole of former Yugoslavia for the buses it manufactured, are also on strike. New strikes are announced from different directions; from the Steel Complex in Skopje, "Gazela", Metal Processing Complex "Tito", while noone even bothers to count small firms which are on strike or are announcing strikes. Trade Union activists do not even reject the possibility of a general strike of all enterprises in Macedonia, because future is dubious even for the firms which have no serious financial difficulties at the moment.

Demands of the workers most frequently refer to irregular payment of salaries. In Macedonia, 130 thousand workers receive their salaries with a delay of two to ten months. Apart from their salaries, the workers are disturbed by the fact that most of them will be left without jobs, because, according to the Government program elaborated in cooperation with the World Bank, only from 23 firms which suffered losses, about 18 thousand workers will be a surplus manpower.

In order to alleviate the situation, the Government elaborated the mentioned project which involves twenty five enterprises which suffered greatest losses in Macedonia and are awaiting restructuring. For the implementation of the program it was necessary for the deputies of the Assembly of Macedonia to discuss the so-called Law on enterprises suffering losses at their tenth session, which was a precondition for getting a loan from the World Bank and for signing a new stand-by arrangement in March. Although the deputies agreed that such a law is necessary, there were numerous objections concerning the procedure for its adoption as an urgent matter, and even concerning it being in accordance with the Constitution. Some even believe that, instead to resolve the problem, this will expend the problem on other enterprises and that there will soon be 1,600 enterprises suffering losses in Macedonia. The Law on restructuring part of the enterprises suffering losses during operation is a project the Government of Macedonia was engaged in elaborating for already a year. This Law prescribes that such enterprises be given a term of three to six months to get back on their feet. The main objective is to protect and promote production in the phase of restructuring and to transform those parts of entreprises which are not functional into new forms. All this predicts that a large number of workers will be left without their jobs.

In order to complete this job as successfully as possible, the Government invited the experts of the World Bank. They have given their opinion and they were quite obviously not too "considerate" about giant enterprises, such as the Skopje Steel Complex, "Fenimak" from Kavadarci and "Hero Toza Dragojevic" for which they planned winding up. Therefore, the opinion expressed by world experts did not suit many firms in Macdonia, so it is believed that their opinion contributed to the first wave of workers' dissatisfaction which resulted in the strikes in the end of last year. That the opinion of the World Bank experts and that of domestic economists are conflicted is best verified by the example of "Treska" which, according to the assessment of world financial experts, has 800 out of the total of 1400 employees who are a surplus. Opposed to these assessments stands the opinion of managers of this firm according to whose calculations only 200 workers are a surplus.

The greatest problem will be the social status of the workers who will be left without their present jobs. Only 23 enterprises which have suffered losses have a surplus of 18 thousand workers. This figure is far from being a realistic picture of all those who will remain in the street, because almost every day in Macedonia a firm is wound up mainly in the category of the so-called small enterprises, which is something that hardly anyone seems to be much concerned about at the moment.

Therefore, the most difficult issue for the young Prime Minister Crvenkovski and his ministers will be resolving the economic and social problems. Privatization of giant economic enterprises and their restructuring will probably be painful. Workers' strikes from the end of last year were just an announcement of a "season of strikes" which will most probably culminate in the course of this year. Workers of Skopje Steel Complex have announced that they would go on strike in January. If there will be a general strike as the Trade Union of Macedonia announces, it would mean that over 200 thousand people would come out in the streets. And this is one tenth of the population of Macedonia. One such strike would be welcomed by the extra-parliamentary opposition which may direct dissatisfaction of the workers in a completely different direction. When the fact that Macedonia has other, not much less significant problems, such as those in the interethnic sphere and Greek-Macedonian controversy, it is not difficult to foresee what social unrest may mean for it. Therefore, those who say that directing workers' dissatisfaction towards economic reform will be the hardest exam for Branko Crvenkovski are not at all wrong. Even harder than the one concerning pacification of interethnic passions and aspirations of its neighbours towards Macedonia.

KIM MEHMETI