PROGRAMMED CHAOS

The political and social situation in Croatia has been brought to the boiling point. Dissatisfaction is growing, the problems are only being postponed by fire-extinguishing measures, and at the moment when the trade unions are threatening with a general strike, Prime Minister Valentic arrogantly rejects their demands, committing a suicidal move. But is that only an illusion and what is behind the chaos which is being supported, and why has the president of the Republic, Dr. Franjo Tudjman, decided to appear in Parliament after two years, and speak about the situation in the Croatian state and nation?

AIM, ZAGREB, December 20, 1994

When the leader of a state feels endangered, he introduces a dictatorship, and Croatian Prime Minister Valentic resorted to a decree to prohibit Christmas bonuses, as a result of his fury and impotence. This is how the president of the strongest Croatian trade union, Dragutin Lesar, commented on the decision of the Croatian Government to prohibit the payment of a 13th salary or increased wages in any form, even in kind, for all employed in state institutions and state-owned enterprises.

Valentic did this while the successful strike of the railways is still on, incurring enormous losses on the Croatian economy, when the strike of "Croatia Airlines" pilots began, and only a day before the two-hour warning strike to which over 80% of the employed population responded. And that was only the dress rehearsal for the real strike. Many therefore ask why Valentic is making that decisive step towards a definitive political suicide, and has not the prime minister, according to all polls, the most popular Croatian politician, actually been pushed onto thin ice?

With his hitherto economic policy, Valentic managed to curb inflation and stabilize the kuna (in the past month the German mark has fallen by as much as three percent), and create an impression of some sort of security in the people, but it is also known that he is one of the rare politicians who dare oppose Tudjman. One of the leading people of the Croatian Peasants' Party, Tihomil Radja, allegedly recently said that there was no love lost between Tudjman and Valentic.

It is hard to disentangle all the threads of the Croat court games and whether Valentic is only a victim or ready to leave for the sake of some future times for reasons of his unbacked principled stance, as there are speculations that show that he is ill-advised (still, he is a lawyer, not an economist). But one thing is certain: the Croatian political and social scenes are progressing towards their boiling points.

Dissatisfaction is growing on all sides, so that some sociologists are ready to claim that nationalism as the connecting tissue of the society has become rather worn out and that a critical mass which could incite social rebellion has already been created. There are arguments galore in support of such a claim. From plunder in ownership transformation, which brought profits to those sitting in Zagreb, and not those bleeding in war theatres, to the increasing number of unemployed and legislation according to which the worker enjoys less protection than in the 18th century, to the fact that no one any longer believes fairy tales that life is now better than before. The champions of the option on the growth of a critical social mass have on their side the move of Parliament to increase the salaries of parliament deputies by as much as 80%, while at the same time it does not have funds for childrens' allowances, and all that at a time when it is widely being said that the Croats are dying out. They find the key argument for their thesis in the fact on the success of the strike of the railway workers and pilots, which the authorities have not tried to crush by force and by the so-called work obligation so far, and in the success of the warning strike.

But, there are also those who think differently, as for instance Goran Granic (the brother of foreign minister Mate Granic), the president of the shadow HSLS government who says: " Major social riots do not stand a chance in Croatia today, because the scene is taken up by war and fear for Croatia's statehood. That situation is disciplining the citizens, so that they will not make the moves they would make under normal conditions".

A combination of the two options essentially reveals the troubles of Croatian politics, because the people are fed up with empty promises and zig-zag moves in which it is difficult to discern any future whatsoever, except survival from day to day and salvation through fire-extinguishing measures. Namely, there are great doubts as to what Croatia should have done in the case of Bihac and Velika Kladusa, and why, precisely at the moment when the battle was being fought for the Cazin krajina, of exceptional geostrategic importance to Croatia, an agreement was signed with the Knin Serbs and negotiations with Belgrade intensified.

Confusion is also increasing with regard to UNPROFOR's fate and threats that on January 10, Croatia will terminate its mandate if the implementation of the agreement with Knin does not start, especially since Hrvoje Sarinic said that he would have never signed the "Zagreb agreement" if he had known what he was signing. There are more and more voices against the confederation with the Bosniac-Croatian Federation, which is going through hard times itself, for fears are being expressed of the renewal of Yugoslavia if the Bosnian Serbs are accorded the same right. After President Tudjman's firm statements that he will definitively say good-by to UNPROFOR, softer variants are now in play, like as, for instance, we shall see, we shall discuss that, if the implementation of the agreement begins, and similar.

And that UNPROFOR does not even care what Croatia thinks, because it has been in the hands of the big powers for a long time and Tujdman is only their pawn or chaser, is proved by the fact that the Croatian nationals working for UNPROFOR have recently been taken on for an indefinite period of time, and that journalists' accreditations are issued within six months as of the date of application.

To all this we should add upheavals within political parties with the epicentar within the HDZ itself, where the battle is continuing for leadership, because the hard core of the founders will not abandon the settling of accounts with new-comers and technocrats. The situation seems complicated, but it appears that the Croatian party picture is actually taking on definite form and that party controls will not prevent the process of "birds of a feather flocking together". For, that precisely is the answer to why parts of the ruling party are moving close to parts of the opposition and vice versa. The process is a natural one, but creates additional difficulties because it can call into question the majority in Parliament, and thereby open up the possibility of early elections, a topic much discussed in the past weeks.

Even HDZ leaders do not shy from this subject, although Goran Granic is rather right in claiming that elections, which he does not rule out, would be a great risk for many current deputies who would certainly not be reelected and who are more concerned with their own security than with the "holy Croatia". It will be necessary to wait for the moment when, according to Granic, by no means alone in this opinion, a figure will be created or strengthened which could oppose Tudjman, which Manolic and Mesic did not succeed in doing. In that case, Valentic also is in the game, and therefrom those quandaries whether he is being set up or waiting for better times. But, it could equally be Vladimir Seks. There seems, however, to be something because of which Tudjman now has him in his power, and because of which he discharges the dirtiest jobs in Parliament, where he was transferred from the Government to help the extremely incomptent president, Nedeljko Mihanovic, who is incapable of guiding even sessions, let alone politics.

So far Tudjman successfully maintained his rule by fluctuating between different streams, but also gradually reinforced it by purging the army of unreliable generals and by bringing in his amateurs, by the strike on the police, and finally by establishing the legal basis to create a new Croatian KOS, (Counter-intelligence Service) i.e. an organization to which all intelligence services would be subordinated. Rule which should, with the help of the newly-created capitalists he chose, ensure his famous several decades. And here we go back to the beginning of the story and Lesar's hints about dictatorship.

But who needs the chaos now threatening Croatia and is it not blasphemous to ask who and why is feeding and inciting that chaos. We will get some answers already on December 22, when the joint session of both Houses is scheduled, when, as shortly reported by the Hina, "President Tudjman will report on the condition of the Croatian state and nation". Someone might ask why is it strange for the president to address Parliament, but it is strange that Tudjman did not appear in parliament for a full two years. Why does he need that right now?

GOJKO MARINKOVIC