NEW PARLIAMENT - OLD PROBLEMS

The new parliament of Macedonia has been constituted, in which a possibility of a maelstrom lies hidden below an apparent harmonious similarity of the parties. The Albanians are represented by 19 deputies altogether - less than in the previous parliament. Deputies of the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM) are in the majority with the total of 58 deputies (meaning that they can make decisions on their own). The opposition VMRO-DPMNE and Gosev's Democratic Party remained outside the Parliament, and all that is left for them to do is to lie in ambush and wait for the ruling SDSM to make a mistake in order to begin to operate by means of "street democracy". The name of the new Prime Minister is already known - it will be the former Prime Minister, Branko Crvenkovski, but his ministers are still not known. The Albanians are offered only three portfolios - two less than in the previous government - which they do not wish to accept.

AIM, Skopje, November 30, 1994 The new republican parliament of Macedonia has finally been constituted and it had three sesions in the meanwhile. According to political colours, the benches of the Assembly of Macedonia seat 58 deputies of the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), 29 deputies of the Liberal Party (LP), eight deputies of the Socialist Party (SP), one deputy of the Party of Full Emancipation of the Romanies (PCER), one deputy of the Social Democratic Party of Macedonia (SDPM), one deputy of the Democratic Party of the Turks (DPT), one deputy of the SDSM-LP, one deputy of the Democratic Party of Macedonia (DPM), 10 deputies of the Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP), four deputies of the National Democratic Party (NDP), four deputies from the so-called "Taci's group", and two independent deputies - one Macedonian and one Albanian. More parties are represented in the present parliament than in the previous one, but it is considered to have been left without the real opposition, if the one based on nationality is excluded - the participation of Albanian deputies. The opposition VMRO-DPMNE and the DP abstained from the elections and decided to act outside the parliament. Briefly, such composition of the republican parliament at first sight offers a peaceful parliamentary life in Macedonia. But, just at first sight, because a more profound analysis can show that such a uniform parliamentary composition can in fact be the greatest handicap in making important decisions which are in line waiting their turn on the agenda.

Stojan Andov was elected Chairman of the Assembly again. Will he have an easier job without the arrogant and at times insolent members of the VMRO still remains to be seen. The new vice-chairmen are also parliamentarians from the previous composition and known for their tolerance and constructiveness - Tito Petkovski, Abdurahman Aliti and Kiro Popovski. When Aliti was being elected, Mersel Bilali reacted claiming that only posts of vice-presidents were planned for the Albanians, and only one third of them. He alluded to the fact that it was impossible for a non-Macedonian to reach the presidential post in Macedonia. From the aspect of an "interethnic democracy based on consensus", his remark may be justified, but from the aspect of parliamentary democracy, it cannot be founded at all: in a parliamentary democracy, the number of deputies, and not the national composition of the population, is decisive.

Briefly, the new composition of the republican parliament, as already stressed, offers more peace in the operation of the parliament and greater efficiency than the previous, because a single party (SDSM) practically has the absolute majority for adoption of laws and taking decisions that require two thirds of the votes. The SDSM can now act on its own and with no great difficulties can ensure the two additional votes it lacks for the necessary majority in voting. But, this increases its responsibility. It would have all been possible if Macedonia had not been a multiethnic country and when it would be enough just to count the deputies according to their party affiliation. Crvenkovski - the newly elected mandatary of the Government

• is well aware that the majority representation of his party in the Assembly of Macedonia is not sufficient to enable him to compose a government from the ranks of his party sympathizers.

Rumours say that Crvenkovski is seriously considering to share the power with the Albanians and to leave other "Macedonian" parties out of the game for division of power. If he finds the courage to do it, he is consciously risking to have his recent allies (LP and SP) join the VMRO-DPMNE and the DP in waiting for each wrong move he makes. Branko Crvenkovski can even exclude the Albanians out of the game, but he is aware that it would be too great a risk and that he can thus lose more than he can gain, especially in the eyes of the international public where he has acquired great reputation for having succeeded to convince the Albanians to participate in the previous composition of the government of Macedonia. What Crvenkovski wishes to accomplish at this moment refers to a reduction of the number of portfolios planned for the Albanians: he is offering them only three portfolios instead of five they had in the previous government. Naturally, the Albanian laders do not wish to accept this, and for the time being, it is uncertain whether they will participate in the new government of Macedonia at all. If the statement of the leader of the PDP, Abdurahman Aliti, that his party will participate in Crvenkovski's government only if some previous agreement concerning Albanian issues is reached, the uncertainty increases. From the ranks of the Albanian parties voices can be heard that they will leave the parliament if the new rules of procedure deprive them of the right to use their mother tongue at the platform of the republican parliament.

Therefore, although the new composition of the parliament may seem more compact than the previous, some analysts assume that soon the parliament will face a crisis and that the newly elected deputies will not live to see the end of their mandate. Such a possibility is founded on the presumption that the newly elected Albanian deputies will leave the republican Assembly and that they will move the centre of their activities to Tetovo. Such anticipation are not unfounded, especially when it is known that now both the SDSM and the other "noderate" parties must clearly state their stance concerning the Albanian demands. Now there is no VMRO-DPMNE to interfere with their Albanophobia, nor Gosev's DP with its nationalistic stances. SDSM will finally have to answer publicly what its "limits" are when speaking of Albanian demands. And this holds double danger for it: on the one hand, it can lose its reputation with the voters of Macedonian nationaity, and on the other, it can force the Albanian deputies to make up their minds to leave the parliamnetary benches, which would finally mean that they would act through some kind of a "parallel parliament" of their own.

While the parties which are represented in the republican parliament are busy dividing the power and portfolios, the VMRO-DPMNE and the DP appear as if still in a "knockdown". They have not uttered a sound for quite some time, except for occasional statements accusing the Ministry of the Interior for maltreatment of their members and sympathizers. There is no doubt that they have placed their "ambush" at precisely determined places which are not hard to detect. They know that this parliment will soon have to face the Greek-Macedonian dispute, that it will have to clarify its stance towards the Albanians and to enter the struggle with the problems the economy of this small country is suffocating in. The opposition is waiting for the parliamentarians and the government to trip over these very "obstacles" (especially the SDSM), aware that Macedonia must yield to Greek pressure and Albanian demands. It will be enough for them to initiate active "street democracy" and "sober up" the Macedonian people. The relation of the Government towards the Albanians is the second, but by no means less important issue the opposition will try to "trap" the SDSM with, and any sign of indulgence will be sufficient evidence for them that the "Communists" have sold "Macedonian national interest"" and that they have accepted "federalization" of Macedonia. Such games have already started about the demands of the Albanians to have a university opened in their mother tongue in Tetovo.

The VMRO-DPMNE and Gosev's DP seriously count on the possibility of economic collapse of Macedonia. Such expectations are not unrealistic, although humanitarian aid from the West is still regularly coming in (American corn to be used as cattle feed has started to arrive). It is possible that Macedonia will live through this winter without major difficulties, but the economy has been suffocating for a long time, and a large number of workers will find themselves in the street because of bankrupcy of some of the former gigantic enterprises in Macedonia. Whether the Government will manage to absorb the shock of their dissatisfaction and poverty, is the part of the story that will soon be found out. But, the opposition VMRO and DP are counting on these very malcontents to cause crisis of the parliament and bring about new elections as soon as possible.

Altogether, at first sight, the present composition of the Macedonian parliament foretells a peaceful and a sensible parliamentary period. But, below this calm sea on the surface, there is maelstrom down below which may agitate the entire political sea of Macedonia. The locomotive called Kiro Gligorov will continue to carefully haul all the carriages: from those carrying the entire interethnic intolerance, to those which bear the burden of various political games which are interlaced around Macedonia. Whether he and the party he belongs to (SDSM) will manage in time to coordinate speed with the switches they might encounter on the way, depends only on their own doing now. Now when the majority in the Parliament are the "President's men", he will not have an easier time than he used to have when the VMRO and the DP were in the Paliament, for the simple reason that there is noone to blame for possible hesitation in adopting certain laws and taking certain decisions which have been waiting to be issued the visa for life by the republican parliament.

Kim Mehmeti