WILL BELGRADE BE DRAWN INTO THE WAR?

AIM, Belgrade, November 23, 1994

The calm of a mandarin with which the official Belgrade is accepting the airplane, verbal, moral and political strikes against its until yesterday extremely esteemed brothers from the West, can astonish only the ignorant. In Serbia, simply, the policy of "peace above all and at any cost", proclaimed in a belligerent rhetorics is still valid, so the detonation of bombs which scratched the runway of the airport in Udbina, hardly reached the average citizens informed by the state media and those close to the state.

The central television daily news program dealt mainly with the congress of young socialists of the Balkans that day and the visit of a delegation of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) (headed by Borisav Jovic) to China, and the news about the bombing found its place only in the second half of the program, and, what is more, only through two statements - of the Federal Government and the NATO (the news about the second strike, two days later, in the central afternoon news broadcast of Belgrade Radio was carried towards the end, just before the weather forecast). The daily "Politika" also informed its readers about it with a touch of sedation, and the very next day in a commentary of its Editor-in-Chief, Dragan Hadzi-Antic (who always readily brags how close he is to the Markovic-Milosevic family), observing that the "main guilty party for the intervention of NATO planes on the Udbina airport was the one or the ones who allowed Serbian planes to take off from this airport, and carry out three air raids in the past two weeks, including napalm bombs, in the Bihac safety zone", concluded: "the leaders of Bosnian and Krajina Serbs must realize that by deliberate provocation of air raids they cannot change the peace policy of Belgrade and Yugoslavia, but just bring additional troubles to their own people".

That the reflections of the authorities move within these limits could be heard in the Assembly of Serbia, where a part of the opposition deputies tried to open a discussion about the action of the NATO airplanes, but, after numerous consultations concerning the procedure, it all ended up only with speeches of the heads of deputy groups. Vuk Draskovic (who stated the "stance of the regime and the SPS", according to the opinion of the Radical, Tomislav Nikolic, the deputy of Vojislav Seselj) said that "all political and military extremists in the Republic of Srpska and the Republic of Serbian Krajina should be condemned, because their only aim is to draw Serbia and Montenegro into a general war against the entire world, and that would be the greatest Golgotha and butchery of the Serbian people", and also that "Serbian nazism will never have the support of the Serbian Renewal Movement".

Zoran Andjelkovic from the SPS transmitted the stance of his party: "Had the peace plan been accepted, there would have been no Muslim offensive, no Kupres, Majevica, Trnova... Until when are the people expected to suffer for the sake of vanity and greed of their politicians who wish to draw the RSK into continuation of the war?" On the other side, inferior according to the number of deputies, were Zoran Djindjic, Vojislav Kostunica and, of course, Tomislav Nikolic, who demanded "neither that Serbia go to war, nor that a single Serb from Serbia cross the Drina... I demand only that you open the border on the Drina...". He addressed the Socialists with the following words: "You have started the business, because you have once said that the Serbian people have the right to self-determination and why didn't you tell them when the Croats were throwing them out of the Constitution that they do not have that right, why did you give them arms, why did you give us arms to go to war...". The Assembly continued work with a discussion about the rules of procedure.

To claim that belligerent statements in Serbia have no major impact is not sufficient justification for optimism. Simply because the calls for peace also have no impact. Tha apathetic public, ready to be kneaded according to needs, refuses to face the reality, and tries to drive away its fears by unrealistic optimism, as a public opinion poll of the NIN weekly shows.

The poll of "Mark Plan" indicates, however, complete division of public opinion into two groups. To a question "are you personally in favour of a military engagement of the FRY, should the NATO take action of large proportions against the Bosnian Serbs which would jeopardize their existance?", the numbers of answers with a "yes", a "no", and a "I don't know" were almost equally distributed (38%, 35.7%, and 26.7%, respectively). It is true that the poll took place in the beginning of October - today, the share of the affirmative answers would have certainly be increased, but everyone who had the opportunity to feel the pulse of the people knows that their belligerence is mostly verbal. Even the trigger-happy Radicals reject direct involvement of Serbia in the war across the Drina.

The people are preoccupied with survival (every fifth citizen is living in poverty) and Avramovic's program, the Brasil-Yugoslavia football game scheduled for December 23, which has already become disgracefully politicized (it is uncertain whether there will be enough space for the football players in the plane for the trip across the ocean, because of numerous politicians and economy officials who decided to accompany them), the first trials for war crimes are beginning in Serbia... And constantly in the air, the question hovers - why did our children have to be killed over there, when, according to everything, majority of the territories will be lost anyway, and when the united strategy of the Serbian national issue crumbled to pieces.

The answer to everything is expected of Him, the President, Sloba... Sloba, however, addresses the public so rarely that for days, weeks even, it does not know what to think and how to make up its mind. The wife, Mira Markovic, has recently become a consistent peace-maker ad this is a sufficient landmark for many. In a part of the SPS,the fact that Slobodan Milosevic and Vuk Draskovic have drawn near is observed with concern, since it is acquiring the features of friendship almost, and in any case, of close cooperation. But, until recently, Seselj was Milosevic's favourite politician, who is on a vacation in jail at the moment...

The power of the war lobby in the newest Yugoslavia, however, should not be underestimated. Its strongest part is also the most mysterious one - it is personified by Army leadership, which was restrained concerning Milosevic's shift and which is not following him in that part too willingly. To what extent, however, and until when? It seems that, after all, the problem of filling up the vacancies in the Army structure (created after the age limit for military service was moved to 21) is sufficient reason for refusing to challenge the war destiny for everyone who cares to be rational. Belgrade is, therefore, unwilling to be drawn directly into the war. By the way, it has avoided it until now, and the regime is publicly brgging about it. There are limits to everything, however, and are they being tested in the past several days?

The only (war) obligation official Belgrade has taken upon itself was the one in the Vance plan, to defend the Serbs in the Krajina, if necessary. In the past few days, just as serious negotiations in the direction Belgrade-Zagreb-Knin have started, the Serbs there have, after quite a spell, engaged in the war agaoin. It might be the result of a trap Radovan Karadzic has placed for Milan Martic, intending to catch Slobodan Milosevic. The whole action around Bihac - withdrawal, counterattack with the publicly stated intention to enter Bihac, although it will not be Serbian according to any maps - almost appears as a war which is fought for the sake of a greater war.

Radovan Karadzic has returned to the screens of world TV stations from the corners he had been pushed into. He feels at home there. He threatens! If there was anyone who was overjoyed with happiness when the USA decided to interrupt the control of the arms embargo for the Muslims, it was him (had the embargo been completely lifted, there would have been no end to his joy), and if there would be anyone who would be happy if Croatia should decide to join the battle around Bihac, it would be Radovan again. Because, in that case (with his announced bombing of Zagreb), he would be able to pressure Milosevic to the end to renew supplies of war material, send some manpower, and, if things should get too complicated, even send the army there. Although this scenario may seem improbable, had not five years ago everything that happened to us in the meanwhile also seemed impossible? Karadzic has obviously started his final battle against the Muslims, the Croats and the world, and as for Milosevic, the chances that he will carry out the first are inversely proportional to the possibility of the latter. David Owen is also persistently warning about the danger of Serbia getting involved in the war "through" Croatia. Boris Yeltsin has also mentioned it. And the statement of the Government of the FRY issued after the bombing of Udbine was in the same tone, saying that this "leads the entire Yugoslav crisis into a new dark period, and perhaps even a war option of large proportions".

Even the man from Belgrade at the post of the Prime Minister of the RSK, Borislav Mikelic, states that "if it happens that they go against the Serbian people and if Croatia with the international forces wishes to wipe out the Serbs over there, then the FRY must run to their assistance".

According to many things, the days which follow will be crucial. Regardless of the attempt to slow things down in the statements after the meeting of Milosevic, Akashi and Martic. There are too many factors at stake to make any further prognosis. It is obviously convenient for Karadzic and Mladic to enter Bihac, regardless of the victims it might take. Does the West have the skill to prevent it with political cunning and dosed military strikes? Will the "blue helmets" withdraw, which would make the darkness prevailing over here complete, as dark as the night on the dark side of the Moon.? Will Croatia remain neutral? That is where approximately the border of peace policy in Belgrade, which will probably be the last to be drawn into the war of all those listed, and not directly if it will not be forced to. Such a development is by no means unattainable.

It seems that not even a thousand years would be enough for the wisdom which says that it is "better to plough six acres than win 24 wars" (the sacred book of the Presians Zend-Avesta) to reach the Balkans. What right do we have to hope for anything good?

Zoran Miljatovic