THE SITUATION IN BOSNIA

The Fifth Corps Facing Collapse, the Gap between the Allies Deepened

Summary: Bosnian Serbs are heading for victory in Western Bosnia, and the Fifth Corps is facing total collapse. Croatia and the international community are disturbed because of the involvement of the Serbs from Krajina in the conflict in Bosnia which threatens to escalate. The former troops of Fikret Abdic are also engaged on the side of Serbian troops. The decision of the USA to abandon the control of the arms embargo additionally complicates the relations and increases the gap between Western Allies, while Karadzic is essentially satisfied with the situation.

AIM, BELGRADE, November 12, 1994

The victorious breakthrough of the Fifth Corps of the forces beloging to the Gocvernment in Sarajevo threatens to turn into a catastrophe. In Sarajevo, officers of the UNPROFOR on Friday afternoon verified the allegations that had come from Pale about the progress of Serbian counter-offensive. Assessments were brought forward that the forces of the Fifth Corps were withdrawing so fast in front of the Serbian dash that there was danger for a great part to be cut off and surrounded. That very same day, the Serbs stated that they had reached Pritoka which is just three kilometres from Bihac.

The ultimate objective of the Serbian counter-offensive is to push the Fifth Corps back to the protected zone around Bihac, with an effort to cut off the largest possible part of this powerful military formation and surround it outside the protected zone, where, at least for the time being, there is no possibility for the NATO planes to intervene. As things stand now, the prospects for realization of such a plan are quite realistic.

Considerable reinforcements brought to the region of Bihac contributed mostly to the success of Serbian forces. According to independent Belgrade news agencies, the UNPROFOR reported that at least seven thousand Serbian soldiers passed through the so-called corridor in the River Sava valley towards the West. On Thrursday, it was reported that about two thousand supporters of the seceded Muslim leader from Velika Kladusa, Fikret Abdic, were getting ready to join the Serbs in their struggle against the Fifth Corps, and on Friday already, the UNPROFOR verified that these soldiers were drilled in a camp on the territory controlled by the Serbs from Krajina. That same day, one could get unofficial information from the Serbian sources that Abdic's soldiers had entered the conflict.

The entry of the forces belonging to the Krajina Serbs into conflicts around Bihac sounded the alarm internationally. Their aeroplanes hit an ammunition factory in the suburb of Bihac in the beginning of this year from the air space above the Krajina. Since they had not penetrated into the protected zone, the UNPROFOR had no foundations to seek NATO intervention. The action was performed in such a way that only the rockets crossed the border with Bosnia. Two days later, it was reported that the troops of the Serrbs from Krajina had entered the conflict.

The Croatian Foreign Minister, Gojko Susak, after a meeting with the American military envoys in Zagreb on Thursday, announced that Croatian troops will also get involved should the Serbs from Krajina continue the attacks on Bihac. A day later, the special envoy of UN Secretary General, Yasushi Akashi, also reacted by addressing a letter to the Serbian President Milosevic asking him to influence Knin to discontinue military actions.

The UNPROFOR assesses that Zagreb actually will send troops to Bosnia if it decides to follow the threat of its Minister Susak, but to the region of Kupres and around Dubrovnik, but that it will not get involved in direct conflicts with the Krajina Serbs. Zagreb has plenty of reason to fear total collapse of the Fifth Corps, because practically from the beginning of the war, that same Fifth Corps forced Knin to engage a significant part of its military potentials at the border with Bosnia. If that need disappears, and it will disappear should Bihac be reduced just to the protected zone around the town, Knin will be able to engage all its troops along the confrontation line with Croatian forces.

The same can be said about Bosnian Serbs who will also have a "surplus" of troops, should they break the resistance of the Fifth Corps, and they will be able to engage them in the East and the South, around Vakuf, Jajce and other towns. Essentially, both for the Krajina and the Bosnian Serbs, destruction of the Military power of the Fifth Corps would reduce the frontline for a few hundred kilometres, and this would be a significant gain for them.

The Fifth Corps has comparatively poor chances to retain its position. It is certain that soon, maybe even in a few days, it will lose all the territories it had won in its latest offensive. By the entrance of the Serbs from Krajina and Abdic's supporters, its positions were attacked from all sides and there is serious danger that some regions it controls will completely be cut off.

Abdic is probably hoping that he will get back his self-proclaimed Autonomous Province Western Bosnia as a reward for joining the struggle, and that tens thousand refugees will return to their homes they were forced to leave and are now living in camps on the territory controlled by the Krajina Serbs. It is also probable that the Bosnian Serbs, if they manage to complete this action as they had planned, will attempt to establish a region they will control between the region of Bihac (the protected zone) and Abdic's province in Kladusa, and thus avoid a possible alliance of the two Muslim formations in the future.

The success in the West for Karadzic is of vital importance and it will just strengthen his position. Should they take new territories (and this is very possible), the Bosnian Serbs will naturally be even further away from the acceptance of the maps of territorial division of Bosnia & Herzegovina proposed by the international community. Verification of military power at the moment they are isolated from all sides, will bring them an additional dose of self-confidence and decisiveness. Had the counter-offensive he had initiated failed, Karadzic would have found himself in a very difficult political situation. When he called the Serbs not to support the peace plan, he had promised them protection of "the borders reached", so he would have been forced to explain what had happened to make him lose territories had his counter-offensive been a failure.

At this moment the international comunity can practically do nothing to prevent the defeat of the Fifth Corps. Its units had gone far from the protected zone where they are fighting for survival now, so that the use of air-force, at least according to the existing rules, is impossible. The decision of the USA to cease to participate in the control of the arms embargo has just complicated matters, having deepened the misunderstanding among Western allies. This, of course, makes reaching any efficient decision even more difficult.

One should have in mind also that the Serbs still have a significant trump card in their hands - the comparatively poorly protedcted forces of the UNPROFOR deployed in the space of entire Bosnia&Herzegovina, which they can easily block and cut off, as they have already shown. There should be no doubt that they would be ready to take even more radical steps towards the peace forces, in case of air strikes. After all, the UNPROFOR officially admitted this week that it had agreed to give Bosnian Serbs half of the fuel transported over the territory they control in order to have the logistic convoys of the UNPROFOR and the UNHCR safely pass.

The unsuccessful attempt of the Government forces to push back the Serbs in Western Bosnia and other fronts is a serious blow to the doctrine of certain circles in Washington which believe that more military pressure should be exerted against Karadzic and thus force him to accept the agreement. The decision that the Americans will withdraw from the control of the arms embargo which "smells" like a unilateral lifting of the embargo, places Moscow in an awkward position and may force it to make counter moves, pressed by its own nationalists. It is certain that after this decision Milosevic will also feel quite free in respect to implementing the embargo he had introduced on the Drina. Because, if the Americans can publicly help the Government in Sarajevo, why should not he secretly help the Serbs in Bosnia?

Dragan Janjic