THE DISPUTE BETWEEN GREECE AND MACEDONIA AFTER THE ELECTIONS

AIM, Skopje, October 29, 1994

Summary: Diplomatic sources close to the UN claim that Boutros Ghali, referring to the election calender in Macedonia, gave instructions that the ground for negoriations be prepared immediately after the elections. Greece is closely observing the elections in Macedonia and at the moment wishes to leave the impression of being the "constructive party" in order to make Macedonia appear to be the unbending party. Speculations about the name are still present; the possibility of two names for this one state is mentioned - one for "domestic" use and the other for external - such as New Macedonia, Northern Macedonia. Will Greece abandon its stance not to accept any name which includes the name Macedonia is still questionable, but it is quite certain that neither Macedonia nor Greece can "get" everything they demand, if they wish to find the exit out of this deadend street.

The elections in Macedonia are closely observed by its neighbours. Rightfully, of course, because they are important not only for Macedonia but also for the situation in this part of the Balkans. As concerning the conditions within the country, it seems that they will remain as they are for quite some time. To a large extent they are conditioned by the future status of Macedonia in the Balkans, in Europe and the world. Therefore, both the election race and the actual results after the voting were closely observed by its neighbours, by European institutions, but those from the other side of the ocean as well. In doing it everyone keeps in mind the continuation of Greek-Macedonian negotiations and the destiny of their dispute which is at the moment the immediate knot which the Macedonian and Greek diplomats need to untie.

Concerning resolving of the Greek-Macedonian dispute, the officials of Macedonia state new, except what has been known for a long time. Minister Stevo Crvenkovski who is in charge of foreign policy, stayed for two weeks in New York before the beginning of the 49th UN General Assembly session and he met with the representatives of Clinton's administration. There is no doubt that the issue of relations with Greece was the dominant topic. But, as usual, he publicly declared only what has been known for a long time. Diplomatic sources of the UN claim that Secretary General, Boutros Ghali, referring to the election calender in Macedionia, gave instructions that the ground for continuation of negotiations be prepared right after the elections. This means that the UN have given enough time to Macedonia to complete the elections in peace, but instist that the negotiations be intensified afterwards. Greece successfully used the election campaign in Macedonia to play the role of the "constructive party", laying the blame for prolongation of negotiations on Macedonian diplomacy.

Minister Carlos Papoullas repeated several times in New York that the problem will be solved until the beginning of next year. Was this the result of signals he had received from Skopje, or just his conviction that the pressure on Macedonian diplomacy to be more flexible will increase after the elections. "A decisive period is ahead of us, when Vance will bring out the problem of political leadership in Skopje", Papoullas said in New York, after his talks with Cyrus Vance and Matthew Nimits. Greek diplomats did not hesitate at all to admit that the victory of Gligorov and his political supporters suits them. The statement of Matthew Nimits to Greek journalists verifies that intensifying negotiations is what matters and that all are impatient to have this problem solved. Asked what he means when he speaks about an honourable solution of the problem, he said: "When you negotiate about something, if you wish to take something, you must also give something in return. If there is no taking and giving, then there is no negotiations." And, after the talks with Stevo Crvenkovski, he said to Macedonian journalists: "Your country has very firm views concerning this issue."

It appears that everyone agrees with the statement of Klaus Kinkel that "the situation in Macedonia must change and that it cannot go on like this any more". It even appears that finally everyone has grown impatient to see the end of this somewhat absurd dispute. It is, therefore, easy to assume what is in line for President Gligorov and the Government of Macedonia after the elections. It is quite certain that the pressure exerted on them will increase to make them be more flexible and to bring about to any solution. This flexibility implies only one thing: adoption of, if not all, then at least a part of Greek demands. And finally, it seems that the Greek-Macedonian dispute will be resolved globally, and not as the Greek party once proposed - first solution of the problem of the Constitution and the flag, and leaving the problem of the name for some later date.

Now that the election in Macedonia are nearly over and that the winner is almost certain - Kiro Gligorov and his Alliance for Macedonia - the negotiations between Greece and Macedonia will almost certainly gain in intensity. One should not forget, though, that Macedonian diplomacy will be handicapped by the boycott of the ellections by the opposition parties - the VMRO-DPMNE and the Democratic Party - which informed the public that the "Communist dictatorship" which won power by "forged elections", would change the name of the state in three months. They, therefore, had in mind exactly the same period of time the international institutions are stressing as the time limit for closing the file titled the "Greek-Macedonian dispute". Regardless of whether Macedonian diplomacy is ready to satisfy some of the Greek demands, undoubtedly Gligorov will have a difficult time in winning the support of the Macedonian public for any possible concessions. Especially concerning the name of the state. And majority of speculations refer to the name. There are claims that the UN are considering a solution with as many as three names - one for internal use, one such as "New Macedonia", "Northern Macedonia"... for external use, and the third for Greece which does not wish to abandon its stance that any name which includes the name Macedonia is unacceptable for her.

Noone can say with certainty what the negotiations with Greece will be like after the elections. What is certain, though, is that the negotiations will continue and that Greece will continue insisting on changes of the Constitution, the name of the state and the flag. Undoubtedly, the arrows of pressure of the international community will be pointed at Macedonia. And Gligorov will not have an easy job even if the Parliament will have the majority of deputies from the Alliance of Macedonia. For a simple reason that for years now a climate that there will be no concessions to Greek pressures is being created in Macedonia. This means that the politicians kept telling the public what even they themselves did not believe: that the economically powerless Macedonia will "win the battle" with Greece. What is the price Macedonia will have to pay in order to finally free itself of the Greek embargo, it is not difficult to guess. The flag will certainly be changed and it seems that the Macedonian public will "swallow" this with least difficulties. The Constitution can also be subjected to some changes, especially if the composition of the Assembly will be as expected - with about a hundred deputies of the Alliance of Macedonia. But, as for the change of the name, it is difficult to say that there are such political forces in Macedonia which would take the responsibilty to negotiate about it. And yet everyone in Macedonia is aware that it will be have to be discussed once. If not for any other reason then because Greece has gone too far to be able to turn back so suddenly.

T.A.