AVRAMOVIC & KOSOVO

Summary: The recent visit of the Governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia, Dragoslav Avramovic, and what he said during his talks with the local entrepreneurs is still the main topic in Kosovo, especially among private businessmen. His "revelation" that there is a surplus of money in Kosovo and his speech in favour of giving more power to the financial tax-collectors disturbed all those who had anything to do with the financial police so far, because not seldom both their goods and their money were taken away from them, even though they had the necessary documents. The very next day after his visit, local financial policemen got "reinforcements" and "collected" a good deal of money in foreign currency. Quite often, even the regular police forces, in the street or, after closing a market place, searches and takes away everything it finds both from the sellers and from the citizens. It remains to be seen whether Avramovic's idea about the National Bank of Yugoslavia being ready to "borrow the money from the citizens of Kosovo with handsome guarantees" may be successful...

Having returned from Kosovo, The Governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia, Dragoslav Avramovic, declared: "While I recently stayed in Prishtina, I was informed that the Albanians receive monthly between 250 and 300 million German marks from abroad. If that is true, that is a lot of money and, if they have a surplus of foreign currency,the National Bank of Yugoslavia is ready to borrow them under acceptable conditions". Among Albanian businessmen in Kosovo, another of his statements is also commented on - that "everywhere in the world there is a surplus of goods, while around here, there is a surplus of money". Such statements come as the result of the crisis of the economic program, especially of the need for another "infusion" in order to keep it going for some time. Therefore, since it is impossible to obtain foreign capital, domestic possibilities should be used, those of Kosovo inclusive. The assessment that a surplus of money - of about 300 million German marks - appears every month in the region of Kosovo has no official foundation, that is simply the impression one may get due to a large supply of goods in Kosovo and their rich variety, starting from the most luxurious goods down to the everyday necessities in the green market. Mr. Avramovic is probably taking into account the fact that, according to unofficial data, about 300 thousand Albanians have emigrated from this region, mainly into the countries of Western Europe. Just few have emigrated with their families, so it can be concluded that there is an inflow of foreign currency. But, if one considers the fact that street dealers in Prishtina offer 30 per cent more dinars per one German mark over the official exchange rate, one gets a completely different picture: there is a surplus of dinars in Kosovo.

The fact is that living conditions in Kosovo are better in reference to the economic power and the level of production development. As an illustration, one should keep in mind that there are about 96 thousand workers employed in Kosovo or more than 130 thousand less than four years ago, that the scope of production is equal to the one about 20 years ago. Let us also mention that only about four per cent of the facilities in mining are used, that the mining complex "TREPCA" has not produced a gram of lead for the first six months this year, that the metal-processing plant "Feronikl" has carried out only 4.6 per cent of its annual plan, and that production of coal has never been so low as last year. Should the fact that the average salary in productive activities in June was only 88 dinars be added to this, it becomes clear what the level of the economic power and the standard of living is loke: in order to survive, a family of four needed 500 dinars in June. Besides, a considerable number of the Albanians who are working in the parallel institutions (mostly in education) had 50 German marks a month, provided from the contributions payed by the Albaninas in Kosovo and other regions where they live or work. Knowing that this is the salary received by over 20 thousand teachers, it turns out that more than a million German marks a month must be provided. This million is still much less than all those mentioned by Mr. Avramovic.

It is presumed that a layer of the population in Kosovo engaged mostly in private business, owns a large capital and makes an enormous profit. But, according to the data of the Service for Payment Operations on the total six-month output of the economy in Kosovo, private firms participate in it with only 30 per cent. In other words, the operating capital in state-owned and mixed firms is almost ten times larger than the one in privately-owned firms. But, the difference lies in the fact that private entrepreneurs operate more economically, because out of the engaged 100 dinars they make 102.84 dinars, while the state-owned and mixed firms make only 37.7 dinars. This makes it clear why private entrepreneurs do not operate at a loss, because out of 24 million dinars of profit made in the first six months, privately-owned firms made 17 million. Such indicators deny the statement about a surplus of money, because the bigger portion of the capital in Kosovo is in the state-owned firms, while private entrepreneurs can be neither initiators nor influence the flow of capital. The Prishtina branch of the National Bank of Yugoslavia certifies that even during the blockade, Kosovo firms managed to export and import various goods. These export-import deals were carried out mainly by state-owned firms, because out of the 65 million-dollar worth of biannual foreign exchange, only about 10 per cent were of private origin.

But, there are certain indications which speak in favour of Avramovic's words. Almost every Albanian family in Kosovo has a member working abroad. Quite a considerable number of them are permanently employed abroad, but those who were lucky to get a season job or who are getting some type of aid are also numerous. They all send the greater part of their income home to their families. Not only due to the blockade, but for "safety reasons" too, this money is mainly transferred from hand to hand. This manner of transfer prevents state institutions to acquire an insight into the amount of money coming in from abroad, so that Avramovic's statement may be arbitrary, although the sum of 300 thousand German marks can easily be obtained by a simple calculus: if there are 300 thousand Albanians living abroad, and if they send 1,000 marks a month each, the mentioned anount of "money surplus" can easily be rounded off. The "only" fact that was disregarded is that there are, in fact, few of them who can actually send such a large sum of money back home to Kosovo. Even if the profit made by privately-owned firms is taken into account, and all other earnings from abroad, it would be difficult to arrive at the mentioned figure.

Street dealers and private businessmen interpreted Avramovic's statement as an announcement of a "rush for foreign currency". A certain amount of fear is present, because in the past few weeks, the Financial Police in Kosovo got "reinforcements" from various towns of Serbia and takes action almost every day. According to an analysis of the Association of the Economists of Kosovo, privately-owned firms are expected to set aside almost 200 million dinars of taxes and contributions this year. Besides, obligations of more than 370 thousand tax-payers amount to 42 million dinars. This means that only on account of the annual taxes and contributions for the state budget of Serbia, almost 300 million dinars should be provided. But, that a certain amount of money is actually out of control of the state is certified by the fact that in the past 20 months, customs offices at border crossings have confiscated a million German marks only from the passengers from Kosovo. In a single police station in the region of Kosovo and Sandzak, 401 thousand German marks and 81 thousand dinars were "temporarily" confiscated. Twenty persons were taken into custody for this "criminal" act sanctioned by the Law on Foreign Currency Operation. There is a considerable number of those who believe that on account of Avramovic's statement there will be still more arrested persons and more confiscated foreign currency...

Ibrahim REXHEPI AIM Pristina