AS IF NOTHING HAD HAPPENED

The majority of Croatian media and politicians are trying to present adoption of Security Council Resolution 947 as a great diplomatic victory of Croatia, but neither the ruling Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) nor the opposition believe in it. This is best confirmed by the demand that President Tudjman appear in Parliament and explain why the UN have not accepted any of the Croatian conditions and that this Resolution be rejected. But, just as Croatia got nothing, the Muslims and the Serbs fared the same, since Izetbegovic was forced to ask for postponement of lifting of the embargo on arms import, and easing of the sanctions can serve Milosevic only as a means in propaganda to cover up the quarrel with Karadzic.

AIM, ZAGREB, October 6, 1994

The majority of the Croatian media, whole-heartedly assisted by politicians and diplomats, are persistently trying to proclaim adoption of Security Council Resolution 947 a great victory of Croatian diplomacy. This "great victory" allegedly lies in the fact that the "Russian trap" has been avoided, that is, the formulation which demanded that all the states created after the dissolution of Yugoslavia mutually recognize each other, and then that controversial issues be resolved, those concerning the borders as well. When speaking of Croatia, this is inacceptable, because this would mean that "Serbian Krajina" would also be recognized as an international subject to "Serbian Krajina" in a perfidious and a roundabout way.

The Minister of the exterior, Dr. Mate Granic, thus believes that the greatest value of the Resolution is that it calls for international recognition of states which were created on the territory of former SFR of Yugoslavia in their internationally recognized borders, and that it calls the Contact Group to make a plan of reintegration of the UNPAs into the Croatian state.

But, this euphoria without foundation is shared neither by the citizens nor by the leaders of numerous political parties, not even by those of the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ), whose member of the Central Board, Drago Krpina, without hesitation claims that "we can in no way be satisfied with the Resolution, because not a single demand of the Assembly has been fulfilled". And the fundamental demand of the Croatian Parliament was that the mandate of the UNPROFOR could not be prolonged without certain essential changes in the sense of guarantees for actual implementation of the peace plan. Neither did the Security Council accept the demand of Croatia that the "blue helmets" could remain for another 100 days only, but prolonged their stay for another six months, without any firm guarantees that their task would be actually carried out. Further on, the UN paid no attention either to the demand that a part of Sector West be excluded from UN supervision, and in reference to the "Pink Zones" a step back was taken, because now it is not clear how, if at all, Croatia will establish its rule over these bordering regions. Altogether - Krpina thinks - this Resolution is not a gurantee that anything will change in the hitherto implementation of the UNPROFOR mandate and it is a poor reward for the constantly proved cooperativeness of Croatia.

The Vice-president of the largest opposition party (HSLS), Jozo Rados, thinks that an even worse diplomatic defeat was avoided, and he assesses the foundation of the Contact Group for Croatia as a matter which should not be awaited without concern. Anto Djapic, the Vice-president of the Croatian Party of Rights, believes that the document from the East River is downright negative for Croatian state interests. The Vice-president of the Social Democratic Party, Davorko Vidovic says that the Resolution, like before, lacks specific statements about the so-called technical issues, because no time limits or specifiic moves have been specified, but everything remained on the level of demands, notes, appeals, confirmations and expressions of concern. The Vice-president of the Croatian National Party, Ivica Vrkic, assesses that "we have strengthened the political position for an indefinite future", but unfortunately, no shift has been made concerning our demands for a peaceful reintegration of the occupied parts of Croatia. The Croatian Peasants' Party says in its statement that Croatian demands have not been answered, but that the Resolution is a confirmation of the intentions to reach solutions in a peaceful way, and to ensure territorial integrity of all the states created by dissolution of Yugoslavia.

The President of the Serbian National Party (SNS), Milan Cukic, also believes that the final text of the Resolution and deletion of the unpleasant Russian formulation offers no reason for euphoric celebration, and least of all can it be cause for proclaiming the outcome in the UN a major political victory. Cukic also says that the SNS is not surprised, since it was unrealistic to believe that the demands from the Croatian Assembly resolution whuch had the form of an ultimatum would be accepted.

Reflections of such dissatisfaction have already reached the Assembly, where, under pressure exerted by several deputies both from the ruling and the opposition parties, Vladimir Seks, who has recently been sent from the Government to the Assembly in order to help the incompetent and the absent-minded Chairman, Dr. Nedjeljko Mihanovic, was forced to put the discussion about the Security Council Resolution on the agenda, since it was in disharmony with Croatian demands. Demands could be heard that President of the Republic, Dr. Franjo Tudjman, appear in the Assembly, but after all, it was concluded that the unpleasant job of explaning "the great diplomatic victory" should be left to the Minister of External Affairs, Mate Granic.

Thus, the euphoria of September 23, when the Assembly unanimously (!) adopted its Resolution about the Mandate of the UNPROFOR, suddenly subsided. It was meant to offer strong support to President Tudjman in his addressing the UN. But, both the "position" and the opposition have forgotten what they had actually adopted on that day when they euphorically applauded standing up as one in their benches. It is true that the document reads that the hitherto mandate of the "blue helmets" is considered completed and that conditions for the possible acceptance of a new one are listed in it, but they have forgotten that these were just words and that the fourth chapter of the much-vaunted Resolution adopted in unison includes, among other, the following: "Should the listed obligations remain unfulfilled within the given time limit, i.e. by January 10, 1955, the Assembly of the Republic of Croatia will consider the mandate of the UNPRPOFOR definitely completed". And this could be interpreted in no other way than that the Assembly had actually approved prolongation of the mandate for 100 days, and the defeat of Croatian diplomacy lies "only" in the fact that the Security Council has concluded that it will last six months.

As if they were not aware of what they had adopted after a violent and virulent dispute which included even calls to war and instantenous dismissal of the UNPROFOR, the deputies are now demanding from the Assembly to ratify the latest UN Resolution, in other words to reject it. The probability that it will is small, however, because Croatia is forced to make moves the big ones want. It is easy to predict the results of yet another parliamentary debate: there will be big words, accusations and crying over one's destiny, but in the end things will turn out just as the UN wish them to, or better still, the only way they can, since this Resolution is a mere result of the relation of power in world politics.

But, one could say that it is not just Croatia that fared badly, because this Resolution, as who knows how many before it, just determines the framework for a peaceful solution for Croatia. The Croatian Assembly first deceived itself and then its citizens, but nevertheless it got the only thing it could get at the moment. Alija Izetbegovic was forced to give up his demand for lifting the embargo on import of arms, because allegedly it does not suit him now. Of course, this is just a farce directed by the USA, and the first world power is asking for a six months' break in order to prepare the ground for implementation of its plan, corroborated by verbal threats of NATO attacks on Bosnian Serbs. At first sight, Milosevic has profitted the most, since he was given a 100 days' experimental lifting of the first layer of the sanctions, because he had been good and kept his promise to isolate Karadzic. But, opening of the Belgrade airport, permission to sportsmen to participate in world competitions again, as well as enabling the people working in culture to travel freely abroad, is just good in propaganda, which the Belgrade regime will certainly know how to exploit.

In fact, it all shows that world diplomacy is uncapable of untying the knot and that it is not ready to make radical moves even when Karadzic openly declares war on the entire world personified by the UN. Winter is coming and the Balkan trauma continues, because nothing has actually changed. When speaking of Croatia, some changes might even happen, because this "great diplomatic victory" can lead to further conflicts within the ruling HDZ, and what Manolic and Mesic have started might very well be continued by the United Nations. But, a different development of events is also possible. Croatia might finally and sincerely accept the Washington Agreement and accept the fact that with no B&H there can be no Croatia either, and that it should seek its allies not only among the Muslims, but the Albanians, Macedonians, Bulgarians, but that is a much less possible option.

But, these are all just mere speculations, because this round has finished, and regardless of what it may seem, things are exactly where they have been, as if nothing had happened, nothing at all.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC