KRAJINA ALL ALONE IN THE WHOLE WORLD

The Serbs in and out of Serbia

AIM, BELGRADE, October 7, 1994

Idle pensioners, refugees, a war veteran and a disabled man here and there, smugglers, foreign currency profiteers, dissatisfied national oppositionists on party assignments, scarce activists of humanitarian organizations, and Mihajlo Kertez alias Bracika, Director of Federal Customs Administration, are the only ones in Serbia who are still interested in what is going on in the Krajina. All the others, in case they are attacked by occasional voyerism, can satisfy their inclination on page 7 of the daily "Politika" which is reserved for the news from the entire region of former Yugoslavia. One should not be too strict, however; there is great interest in Belgrade for the wine from Benkovac in Krajina (a dinar and a half per litre, if you bring your own bottle) which is quite appropriate for the season of family patrons' days.

THE HIGHWAY: Interruption of economic and military assistance to Bosnian Serbs from the FR of Yugoslavia caused confusion in Krajina. Two things were not clear: was this a real, and not just a feigned conflict between Belgrade and Pale, or was a complete change in Serbian policy actually in sight. The stopped long lines of trucks in Sremska Raca and the arrival of international observers at the Drina river convinced them that the split was real, and the resolute refusal of the mediating and reconciliatory mission of Mile Martic by Slobodan Milosevic showed them that everything that used to be valid in inter-Serbian relations - is valid no more. It is true that the President of Serbia still wishes to squeeze all he can out of the policy he pursued in the previous years, but he is even more resolute to remove everything that happens to be in his way to getting rid of the sanctions. Therefore, noone should be surprised that, as soon as Kertes suspected that the Bosnian Serbs are racketeering the trucks from Krajina along the corridor, in other words, that they are supplying themselves by means of permits of Krajina enterprises, he simply banned all export to Krajina except humanitarian aid.

Therefore, based on this move, opening and demilitarization of the Belgarde-Zagreb highway seems to have become only the matter of time, because sypplying has otherwise become impossible; there are no guarantees from Pale about their readiness to change the practice which is unacceptable for Belgrade. Should that happen, Croatia would, in compliance with the Vance plan, attain unrestricted passage through Okucani, and Krajina the right to convoys (including civilian transportation) under control of the UNPROFOR. Some local diplomats believe that Belgrade and Zagreb have already agreed about such a resolution.

THE FAVOURITES: Martic's comment concerning the shortages which spread around Krajina due to Kertes's zeal was that "this situation will push the Republic of Serbian Krajina into the hands of Croatia". What stance should the Krajina leaders actually take now? Should they express support for Dr. Radovan Karadzic hoping that Milosevic will have to give in under pressure of the national opposition and the Church, or should they accept the new reality and adapt their objectives to it? As it has become customary by now, they split, but for the first time not as one would expect. Namely, if there was no doubt that the local Radicals would remain true to their leader Dr. Vojislav Seselj and demand union of the Krajina with the Bosnian Serbs without delay and regardless of anything else, the fact that Martic joined them was a surprise, as well as the rapprochement of Milan Babic and the Krajina Prime Minister, Borislav Mikelic. What does it all actually mean?

Martic most probably took for granted everything he had been told during the election campaign in the Krajina in the beginning of this year, when Milosevic was trying to show the international comunity that his power over the entire Serbdom was unquestioned in order to extract the desired concessions. With his whole heart, his soul and moustache, the Krajina President supported the option which was then presented to him that the strategy of exhausting the Muslims and the Croats by war or semi-war would make them give up their objectives, but only if Belgrade was obeyed unreservedly. When the situation changed, Martic lost his bearings. Since he was not up to any complex policy, he turned to Pale for help just like "in the good old days", forgetting that Dr. Karadzic and his people are now hardly capable of even helping themselves. He is simply a man whose expiry date in politics has passed a long time ago and, as such, he is of no interest for anyone any more; the fact that his recent meeting with Milosevic when he unsuccessfully begged for abolishment of the intra-Serbian embargo was not even registered in Belgrade is sufficient evidence that this is so. Babic is a completely different story. Contrary to Martic, after his conflict with Milosevic because of the Vance plan, he had enough time to comprehend that all Milosevic was interested in was his personal power. Having evolved as a politician, he came to the conclusion that the times had passed when, due to the Serbian internal political scene, it was possible to successfully threaten with a new involvement in the war, and that a period of diplomatic and political bargaining had begun. Especially since it seems that, after all, the war in Croatia has been localized and brought under control under pressure from the international community. Babic is not interested in Dr. Karadzic: if Milosevic can bargain with Dr. Franjo Tudjman because of Krajina, why would not the leader of Bosnian Serbs negotiate about concessions in B&H with the leaders of Herzegovina based on the same principles. Finally, the Serbian President, if for nothing else then for the sake of broadening his foreign-policy manoeuvring space, needs Babic as a politician who has truly become independent in the meanwhile. But, the outcome of the split among the Serbs still remains to be seen. There is a number of intermingled factors - from the rate of lifting the sanctions, through the course of the war in B&H, the possibility of a new dash of hyperinflation, all the way to the Kosovo issue - which can be the trump card for both the parties in conflict. One thing is certain, however, even in this context - Krajina is of no interest for anyone any more.

Philip Schwarm