LITTLE BIG TANGLE

AIM, ZAGREB, September 10, 1994

Although primarily entertained with the visit of the Pope, which is presented by almost all the media as the event which will change the world, the Croatian public is trying to decipher what is happening in those domains of the domestic and world politics which actually determine the destiny of this state. Thus many wonder what the recent statement of Hrvoje Sarinic, the head of state information service and the chief negotiator with Knin and Belgrade and the future head of the Office of the President of the Republic again, meant when he said that the war drama in the Balkans would soon end by creation of a "Little Big Serbia"? With such an assessment which he had never even tried to explain nor ever managed to do, the second man (according to power) in Croatia just increased the already enormous confusion about the understatement concerning two essential Croatian political issues: the destiny of the "Serbian Krajina" and the relations with Bosnia&Herzegovina, i.e. the Croatian-Bosnian federation and the possible confederation with Croatia.

And although one could say that the "Little" next to the "Big Serbia" could mean that Croatia would never give up the demand for reintegration of the occupied territories, i.e. for their return within the recognized borders, the adjective "Big" could be interpreted in various ways. Croatia clearly manifests what its wishes are concering its territory, although it does not know how to go about their realization, but when speaking of B&H it appears that many possibilities are open, with only one of them, just verbally, based on the Washington Agreements. To be more precise, these agreements have already fulfilled their mission since their major task was to end the Croatian-Bosnian war, but their main disadvantage was that they were foredoomed, because there were no indications that the Croats from Croatia would vote in favour of the confederation, and even more important - what about the Serbs? Namely, regardless of the fact that Karadzic was the one who started the war and who is still persisting with it, what is the logic of the agreements which enable the Croats and the Bosnians to form a confederation with Croatia, and the Serbs only to join the Croatian-Bosnian federation with no right to confederation with Serbia or Yugoslavia?

A careful reader of the Washington documents could, however, find a provision giving the Serbs two years to reconsider what to do, but the real turmoil started when the proposal of the Contact Group enabling the Serbs to join the union with Serbia was published. Right after signing of the agreements in the US capital, many warned about the lack of logic of the proposal which could mean only two things: either renewal of Yugoslavia, or division of Bosnia&Herzegovina. Although there were numerous variations, of course, none of them left room for the persistently repeated trite phrase: preservation of united Bosnia&Herzegovina. Because, what kind of a union would that be where one part chooses Croatia and the other Serbia to be its partner?

This inconsistency of the plan is the cause of conflicts growing in the triangle Zagreb-Sarajevo-Siroki Brijeg, and the origin of Sarinic's statement about "Little Big Serbia". Verbal accusations have reached the point where some wonder whether a new conflict between the Croats and the Muslims is possible and whether the two parties were sincere when they signed the agreements in the presence of President Clinton? To be precise, has Croatia given up the possibility of division of Bosnia&Herzegovina, and has Alija Izetbegovic understood the federation just as a road leading to the renewal of former Bosnia&Herzegovina within its internationally recognized borders?

The President of the B&H Federation, Kresimir Zubak, claims that there is conscious and open resistance among the officials-representatives of the Bosnian-Muslim nation. They are, he says, those who wish the present situation to last as long as possible without any changes. There are also those who think that they should also nominate Croatian candidates for important posts. I will give an example from the Ministry of Finance where one of the officials of a lower rank, a Bosnian, instructed the employees that all documents, all invoices, even if signed by the Minister himself, who is a Croat, must be first approved by him. We know that a part of the Bosnian leadership is convinced that the Republic of B&H is superior in relation to the federation. Or, on the other hand, there are those who believe that the federation is just a transitional stage until the Republic of B&H is re-established as it used to be. I have recently listened to the leader of the regional board of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) who euphorically promised the people that they would settle accounts with Herceg-Bosnia as if forgetting or unaware that the representatives of the former Government of B&H had signed the agreement with the representatives of that very same Croatian Republic Herceg-Bosnia.

That the Croatian party is not satisfied with the development of the Federation so far was confirmed by the President of the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) of B&H, Dario Kordic who gave data referring to the number of Croatian representatives in Ministries and diplomatic-consular offices, emphasizing that "we shall not withdraw for a millimeter from what belongs to the Croatian people within parity authorities on the federal level."

The main stumbling block is, nevertheless, the return of the refugees, where the Muslims insist on parity, i.e. on an equal number of returnees of both nations, but how - the two representatives of the Croats wonder - can anyone return 20,000 of both Croats and Muslims to Novi Travnik, when that many Muslims have never lived in this town?

But, the other party also has its grudges. Alija Izetbegovic says: No essential moves have been made in the implementation of what was agreed. Someone is to blame for that. I claim that it is not the Bosnians. I will compare the situation on the territory controlled by the Army of B&H with that controlled by the Croatian Defense Committee (HVO). On "our" territory, the Church, "Napredak", Caritas and all Croatian political parties freely operate, including the HDZ, and even the HVO and vehicles bearing its insignia enjoy freedom of movement. The officers of the Croatian Corps have their seat in Sarajevo and freely travel around Bosnia. The Commander of the B&H Army Corps reports to President Zubak, and the HDZ is preparing for its election assembly in Vares which is controlled by the Army of B&H. Why don't you go to Grude now, or Siroki Brijeg, Capljina or Stolac and ask for the SDA, Merhamet, "Preporod" or even for a mosque or a khoja? You will find nothing of the kind.

Dr. Tudjman himself joined in the controversy explaining that Croatia had accepted the Washington agreement considering it to be in the interest of the Croatian nation, but of the Muslims too. It was clear that Croatia could never have accepted a federation without equality in relations and guarantees of a confederate relationship with Croatia. There is certain resistance, but I claim with full responsibility that the present Croatian leadership in B&H is in favour of implementation of the agreement, and that the resistance comes from individuals and is just sporadic. But, I must say that there are examples of open opposition to the agreement among the Muslims, which is clear from statements in newspapers. For instance, the "Ljiljan" carries that the Muslims will settle accounts with other para-state military formations just as they did with Abdic's army. As a crucial argument that he is right Tudjman states the fact that 180,000 Croats have either fled or were driven away from the regions controlled by Muslim forces, while this happened to about 50,000 Muslims. We are in favour of return of them all, and not for any kind of reciprocity.

All this proves that the Washington agreement is in bad shape and that it will need an influsion on September 13 when a meeting of Tudjman and Izetbegovic is scheduled. The President of B&H is also planning a visit to President Clinton in the USA. He says that he will ask both of them: did you mean it seriously when you were signing the document?

Many are now surprised with the offer made to the Bosnian Serbs to form a confederation with Yugoslavia, making Milosevic more than satisfied since he is aware that he has achieved an optimum, while Karadzic would like to get even more tahn that. This is an additional element which complicates the peace plan for B&H, but for Croatia too, and therefore, leads to the real question: is the war after all coming to an end, or will it begin all over again? What will happen if the latter prevails, if by any chance the embargo on importation of arms is lifted, as the USA and some Muslim countries demand? Who will take the responsibility? What will happen if the Croats and the Muslims start losing the war? Who will get involved and to what extent? Will it mean a war of a much larder scale, because one should not forget that the UNPROFOR soldiers from Muslim countries have not announced they they would withdraw, and it might very well happen that these countries will even offer additional forces?

Many question for the answer: what is "Little Big Serbia?"

GOJKO MARINKOVIC

(6 pages)