THE SERBS HAVE THE INITIATIVE AGAIN

AIM, BEOGRAD, September 8, 1994.

Military situation in Bosnia

Summary: In the past months Serb forces managed to recapture almost all the territories they lost in the several successive offensives of the forces of the Sarajevo Government mounted this summer. This is confirmed by reports of UNPROFOR and foreign military observers, who consider that the military positions of the Serbs have now considerably improved. Initially, the military command in Sarajevo publicly boasted of the successes of its troops, which now enables the Serbian side to avoid severe international condemnation because of its intensified military activities. Successes in the battlefield are probably moving the Serbian side even farther away from readiness to make territorial concessions and are making a possible peace

solution even more difficult.

The several offensives launched by the Sarajevo Government this summer on territories under Bosnian Serbs control have, by all accounts, ended in total disaster. Technically better equipped and tactically better led Serbian troops, after an initial defensive and withdrawal, mounted a counter-attack and pushed back the Government's forces on most fronts.

The latest example is the area about twenty kilometers north of Sarajevo - the Nisic plateau. The Government's forces made considerable advances in that area about a month ago, and UNPROFOR informed that the frontlines have been considerably moved to their benefit.

The aim of this offensive was to take favourable positions from which control could be assumed of the strategic road Tuzla - Sarajevo. This road goes via Olovo and is the closest and best link between the two towns, and it is under the control of the Serbs.

Serb forces were expected to make a counterattack to restore the lost territories, but the military planners at Pale decided on a different option. About twenty days ago, there was a storng attack in that area, but on a territory which was not Serb-controlled before the offensive of the Government's forces. The surprise was, according to Serb military sources, complete and the troops that had penetrated Serb territory found themselves in a tight spot and were forced to retreat.

UN sources confirm the success of the Serb counterattack and state that several hundreds of soldiers of the Sarajevo Government's troops were killed or wounded and the conquered territories lost. The Serbs carried out this attack with the significant support of artillery and ordnances, avoiding the mass use of infantry.

Somewhat earlier, the Serbs had mounted a massive attack on Mt. Ozren, where the Government's troops had taken several miles of territory and some ten villages. World press agencies quote foreign military observers who state that the turnabout occurred at the moment when the Serbian side pulled in three artillery batteries on Ozren. The area taken by the Government's forces was heavily shelled, and according to the same sources, over 600 Government soldiers were killed or wounded in the battles. The Government in Sarajevo engaged about 7,000 soldiers in the offensive on Ozren. Practically all the territories it had taken were lost again.

In the region of Brcko, one of the most important strategic points in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the frontlines did not apparently move much, although severe fighting took place there all summer. It is certain that in June, the Serbian side lost some important positions, south of the city, but afterwards managed to stabilize its lines. There is no confirmation from UN sources that the Serbs have managed to get back what they lost, although the military authorities at Pale claim that everything is "as it used to be".

The so called "corridor" linking the western areas of Bosnia under Serbian control, with the eastern parts and FR Yugoslavia is the narrowest at Brcko. Croatian positions are to the north of that city, Moslem ones to the south and all three sides have important strategic reasons to control the corridor.

Some ten days ago a new broad front was opened in western Bosnia, in the so-called Bihac pocket. The Fifth Corps of the Government's troops first defeated the forces of the seceded Moslem leader, Fikret Abdic, after which tens of thousands of refugees crossed over to territory under the control of the Krajina Serbs. An offensive of the Bosnian Serbs on this region shortly followed, and is, it seems, culminating these days.

Sources which can be considered reliable, claim that the military commander of the Serbian forces, general Ratko Mladic has been in the territory of western Bosnia for over 20 days now. If that is true, probably he is personally in command.

The Serbian side accuses the Fifth Corps of, after quelling the resistance of the troops loyal to Fikret Abdic, launching a general offensive against all Serbian positions, including those in the area of Krajina. UNPROFOR, however, claims that the Serbs are in offensive and that they are heavily shelling Cazin and other towns with their artillery and missiles. Reports mention hundreds of wounded, while precise data are still not available on the number of killed.

It is realistic to assume that the Serbian military command has assessed that, after the defeat of Abdic's troops, the Fifth Corps poses a greater danger than so far, and has therefore decided to weaken its positions. It is also possible to assume that the aim of this offensive could be the taking of areas previously controlled by Abdic. In that case, Abdic and "his" refugees could be offered to return, but under Serb-dictated conditions. For the present, there is no tangible evidence for such an observation.

The Fifth Corps was , according to data published by world agencies, citing UNPROFOR, at the time of severe clashes with Abdic, about 15,000 strong. The Bosnian Serbs also have strong technically well equipped forces in that area. The Fifth Corps is handicapped by the fact that it is completely cut off and its supply with ammo and other materiel is very difficult.

Under such conditions the Government's forces will not be able to withstand longer pressures on the part of the Serbs. They can resist until they have reserves of ammunition, food and fuel, probably supplemented by the looty they took after breaking the resistance of Abdic's troops. If it is true that the Serbs have launched an offensive, it is to be expected that they will endeavour to prevent the supply of military and other aid to Bihac at any cost, hoping for the success of their effort.

Western military analysts assess that the successes of Serbian units in the past month have significantly undermined the military positions of the Government in Sarajevo. This particualrly refers to the defeat at the Nisic plateau, which has strengthened the Serbian "embrace" of Sarajevo.

Their military victories remove the Serbs from the possible acceptance of a compromise and from making territorial concessions. They now feel stronger and believe that they have proved in practice that they can keep the territories under their control and, even, count on new successes. The Serbian military command feels relatively secure also because UNPROFOR's reports in the past two months, carried by world agencies, spoke about the military victories of the Government's troops. These victories were made immediately after the cease-fire agreement in Geneva and at the time of the most intensive diplomatic initiatives for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Encouraged by their initial victories on the front, military commanders in Sarajevo on several occasions publicly spoke about launching an operation for the "final liberation of all occupied territories".

Dragan Janjic