TROUBLED "SPONSORS"

There are three key reasons why it will not be easy to terminate the blockade of the UNPROFOR: the refugees believe that the things are completely in their power and they are constantly convinced by the major media in Croatia, especially by the TV that this is true; they can finally give vent to their accumulated wrath because of the tragic position they are in; and finally, an illusion of social concern has been created at the sites of the blockade (an abundance of food, television sets in the tents, visits of prominent delegations), which these sufferers chronically lack.

AIM, Osijek, July 22, 1994 If the Croatian Government did "sponsor" the events with refugees as the main protagonists, as Philip Corwin, UNPROFOR civil affairs coordinator in Sector East, said loud and clear in the very beginning of the blockade of the UN peace forces control points, it has most probably started to regret such patronage. The refugees are determined to continue their protest, so that even if the entire affair was organized in the beginning, it is now on its way like a snowball which has started to roll. Mato Simic, the President of the Association of Refugees of Croatia, which gathers more than 250 thousand refugees in Croatia and which is the organizer of the UNPROFOR blockade, is literally choked up by telephone calls and fax-messages of refugees who do not wish to give up their action at any cost. When we visited him in his Osijek office, a day after the session of the Croatian Government which demanded that the blockade of the UNPROFOR be gradually terminated, we could see this for ourselves.

That very day, on Thursday, when Valentic's cabinet issued such a recommendation, the Executive Board of the Association of Refugees also met. The meeting, closed to the public, was, according to what its participants say, long, trying and strained. It took six hours to reach four briefly formulated conclusions, the third of them being the most significant for the present situation. Namely, it creates the possibility of allowing "passage of men and vehicles in passenger traffic" of the UNPROFOR, but district authorities are authorized to decide about it. Simic claims that no pressure was exerted by Croatian Government on the Association of Refugees. True enough, two of the Ministers, Ivica Mudrinic and Dr. Juraj Njavro, had talks with the members of the Executuve Board of the Association, but the decision, Simic claims, was reached independently and it is not the result of any form of pressure.

"Although it implies a certain concession, our decision", Simic says, "is just a transitional solution which will last only until Monday, July 25. That is when we will have our next meeting of the Executive Board in Osijek, and this time, besides the UNPROFOR officials in Croatia, we have also invited Secretary General's Special envoy, Mr. Yasushi Akashi, to attend it. An invitation was also sent to the Prime Minister, Nikica Valentic, and he may decide for himself whether he will come in person or send a competent deputy. Our further actions will depend on the guarantees and promises we will get from the UNPROFOR and Croatian Government", Simic claims.

To a question what they said to the Croatian President, Franjo Tudjman, when they visited him in his Presidential quarters just before the beginning of the blockade on July 1, Simic answers that it was a coincidence. Namely, at an Executive Board's meeting held on May 20 in Nova Gradiska, it was concluded that they would ask reception by Franjo Tudjman in order to inform him about the problems of refugees and the conditions they live in. The proposal of the Association reached at that meeting was that the blockade of the UN forces in Croatia should be gradual and selective, but the refugees insisted on a more radical action.

According to Simic's words, Tudjman neither opposed their action, nor did he support them. He said that they should decide for themselves what they should do, warning them that they must bear the reputation of Croatia in mind, Simic claims.

The action of the refugees which, as the time passes, increasingly threatens to cause incidents and even open conflicts, is becoming more and more difficult to control, and it will demand great skill to end it. There are at least three reasons for that. First, the refugees feel that they are firmly and completely in control of the situation, and the reports published in some of the Croatian media that "Krajina" is experiencing a virtual oil collapse since the inflow of tank trucks from Croatia was cut is supporting them in that belief. It should not be neglected that exceptional attention of the media devoted to the blockade (especially by Croatian Television) which unquestioningly approves the action of the refugees, also intensifies this feeling. Second, accumulated emotions and the tragic position of the refugees have finally opened all the vents and enabled them to wreak their rage on someone. The UNPROFOR is an ideal target, so Croatian diplomacy can remain screened, as well as the Government, and the Supreme Command itself, whose part of the responsible is still not questioned by the refugees. Third, an atmosphere of social life and an illusion of concern of the community for the refugees was created at the blocked control points (television sets in tents, an abundance of food, newspapers, visits of politicians, important managers, public workers, etc.) which these long-suffering people chronically lack. Should Croatian Government really decide to end these protests

• and after the incident with Osijek garbage, the fight in Trogir, the conflict with Polish "blue helmets", and the intervention of the Jordan King Hussein who personnally interceded for the release of his soldiers - and this will no doubt have to be done, it will be an unpopular step which could turn the wrath of the refugees in its direction. Therefore, Valentic's demand for "gradual deblocking" is probably aimed at quiet silencing of the support of the media and luxurious donorship of numerous enterprises which supported the action.

Monday could be decisive in the choice whether the blockade (and in what form) will continue or it will finally, after almost a month, be terminated. Croatian Government certainly is not powerless to carry out its choice. It seems that it is just seeking the way to do it as painlessly as possible and free itself of the "sponsorship" which will be more difficult to deny should the blockade continue.

The counter-measures introduced by the UNPROFOR - the already mentioned blockade of the road near Nemetin, in the vicinity of Osijek (which was used for the transportation of Osijek garbage into the UNPA); the blockade of the Adriatic highway or the refusal to escort buses in civilian traffic on the road Pozega-Pakrac, are just a part of what the UNPROFOR might do. There are indications that the blockade of the entrance into UNPA Sector West was also considered, which would virtually cut traffic between that part of Croatia with the surrounding region.

Whatever the Executive Board of the Association of Refugees may decide on Monday, someone will be dissatisfied. One of the three parties - either the Croatian Government, the UNPROFOR or the refugees - will be disappointed. Since the refugees are best acquainted with the feeling of disappointment, they will almost certainly be awarded with it again. When they end their protests, they will have enough time to reflect whether their short role on the political scene of Croatia was written especially for them or - as they believe - they have directed the performance. The political stage - contrary to the theatre stage - always implies such a dilemma.

DRAGO HEDL

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