CROATIA IN THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE

Croatia is these days being showered by heaps of good news. It has been granted a US $ 128 million credit from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and until the end of the year that figure might reach 350 million. At the same time, the President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Miguel Angel Martinez, said in Zagreb that a principled decision had already been brought on addmitting Croatia into this oldest European association.

Croatia is also satisfied with the proposed maps for the division of Bosnia and Herzegovina because about 90 percent of the Croats will remain within the Croato - Bosnian Federation, although it does not conceal its dissatisfaction with the corridor left to the Serbs in Bosanska Posavina. However, Croatia has been unequivocally warned that it would not get support for a military intervention by which it would return "Krajina" under its jurisdiction, it has been made known to it that it has to change many other things in its politics and legislation, and that further "presents" will ensue if it obeys the orders of "its big ally" - the USA. Already the session of the House of Representatives on July 16 and 17 which will discuss the future of UNPROFOR will show whether Tudjamn will be able to dampen the passions which even he himself incited giving approval for the present "spontaneous" blockade of UNPROFOR on the part of refugees.

AIM, ZAGREB, July 8, 1994

At a moment when the parliamentary crisis is threatening to embark on its fifth month, it is still not known whether the opposition will return to Parliament to the session scheduled for July 16, and while UNPROFOR is under the blockade of refugees, Croatia is receiving good news galore. Two merit special attention: the first agreement has been signed with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development on a US $ 128 million credit, and the President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Miguel Angel Martinez, said in Zagreb that a principled decision had already been brought on the admission of Croatia to this oldest European association.

The Croatian Government interpreted the granting of this first major credit as support to its stabilization programme, the greatest result of which so far is the toppling of inflation, which will amount to only 1.7 percent to the end of the year, while even deflation was registered in some months. This influx of live capital to the Croatian economy, which was, despite the significant results in the bringing down of inflation, nevertheless threatened with collapse, because industrial production and exports constantly registered a decrease, will make it possible finally to embark on the so called third stage. Namely, everything done so far would have been a mere technical operation which even FR Yugoslavia carried out, if it were not for this financial injection, which will help create new jobs, rehabilitate the banks and revive production.

Government representatives claim that this is only the first credit and that at least US $ 220 million can be expected by the end of the year for roads, social infrastructure, the power generating industry, agriculture and other purposes. But, although large amounts are in question they are not sufficient for Croatia given its circumstances, because it will take time to redress the war damages and achieve the pre-war levels of production and standards of living, which would stop the present brain-drain. The Government is only now in a position to confirm the so called "economic miracle", but we must bear in mind that primarily a political move of the United States of America is involved, which in this way rewarded Croatia's obedience.

Namely, by this move the Americans let Croatia know what it can expect if it carries out the agreed upon policy. And that a "carrot and stick" game is in question is best attested to by some statements of American Ambassador Galbraith, who clearly told the Croatian leadership that his country would not support Croatia's possible attempt to reintegrate "Krajina" by military action, and that it does not support the present blockade of UNPROFOR.

In this way he has most directly replied to some increasingly aggressive announcements, even by President Tudjman, that the Croatian Army would, after exhausting all peaceful and negotiating methods, march towards Knin. Not at a single moment did Galbraith even hint that he would, as Tudjman says in his election campaign, give Croatia the green light for a military intervention, let alone give it direct military assistance. Therefrom such great interest in the session of the House of Representatives of Parliament which should on July 16 and 17 have only one item on its Agenda: the future of UNPROFOR in Croatia.

How crucial will be the role of the American carrot or of the stick in deciding and will Tudjman until then manage to cool hot heads, such as the one of Sime Djodan and the strong radical wing within the HDZ, which does not even shirk from attacking the President, remains to be seen. Most certainly an important role will be played by the proposals of the Contact Group for resolving the Bosnian - Herzegovinian knot. Namely, although Tudjamn himself for a long time advocated the thesis that B&H and Croatia were two separate issues, the links of this entire territory and, accordingly, of the war were finally recognized. The Croats are not hiding their satisfaction because around 90 percent of the Croatian people living in B&H will remain within Croatian or Bosniac - Croatian cantons or large districts. This will probably be their reason for accepting the offered maps, despite the fact that the Posavina corridor bothers them very much.

An even bigger "carrot" came from the mouth of Miguel Angel Martinez, who during his stay in Croatia openly said: "The process of admitting Croatia to the Council of Europe has been unblocked. We want Croatia at our table. As long as Croatia is not a permanent and full-fledged member of our institution, there will be a vacuum. During my term, i.e. over the next few months, Croatia should become a member of the Council of Europe".

In only a year since Croatia was threatened by being thrown out of the waiting room, i.e. with the revoking of its status of special guest, the situation has fundamentally changed and Croatia will by mid-1995 at the latest, after Slovenia, be the second state created after the break-up of Yugoslavia to join the Council of Europe. Martinez himself explained the controversy concerning the Croatian case: the Croat - Moslem war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the standstill in freedoms, especially of the media, ethnic rights and human rights. And, although he explicitly said that a principled decision had already been brought, Martinez informed that the final decision would be brought after the visit of several expert groups to Croatia during September. He thus, also made use of the "stick", because he made it clear that Croatia would have to make additional corrections in its behaviour and legislation.

Martinez exhibited exceptional benevolence towards Croatia, even describing the possible future of Croatia on the example of his country. His statement that Spain had an income of US $ 3,500 per capita in 1986 when it was received to the European Community, while today that figure is US $ 14,000, was very tempting. Who wanted to understand, did. At the same time he explained why Spain wanted Croatia at the European table, because in that way the Mediterranean would get an important role in Europe and yet another ally against powerful Germany, France or Great Britain, which once again shows and proves that interests are not always in harmony even in "Europe without borders".

But, Martinez was clear in another message too. He made it clear to the Croatian public and political leadership that he exceptionally respected "his friend Stipe Mesic", who is the reason that Croatia did not lose even the place it has now in this organization. His embrace with Mesic in public is a more than direct message, and confidential sources say that he voiced such an opinion to President Tudjman also. In this way, although somewhat reticent in his statements about the parliamentary crisis, he, nevertheless, took a stand towards what was happening in the Croatian political scene.

Martinez was also informed of the statements of the Croatian Helsinki Board (HHO) on the forcible removal of Mesic and Manolic from their cabinets, which they refused to leave as they believed they had been illegally relieved of office, and statements on evictions from military flats. He was invited to one of their sessions, scheduled for July 5. But, except for giving certain support to Mesic he did not wish to become deeper involved in the internal affairs of a sovereing state, which angered the HHO members, specially their President Ivan Zvonimir Cicak. However, he stated that forcible evictions from flats or the example of the Croatian television, which is under state control, are problems which should not be hidden, but rather solved at concrete levels without exaggeration or politicization.

President Tudjman evidently has reason to be satisfied, because so many good vibrations in world politics towards Croatia, and it is hard to believe that only a coincidence is in question, have not been registered for a long time. But will Tudjman, despite all that, manage to make it from the present unenvious internal political situation where the reintegration of "Krajina" is the primary task, will be seen in some ten days at the Parliament session. One thing is certain: world politicians are far from considering him an ideal partner, but have, nevertheless, opted to bet on him as long as he listens.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC