DEMONSTRATION OF POWER

Summary: A while ago it, two years elapsed since the sea blockade of Montenegro was introduced. The merchant sea fleet of the Republic is facing total collapse. Although a blockade of such a coast and such a weak navy would require several times less forces than those present, enormous military power of the NATO and the WEU is patrolling the Adriatic. There were a number of incidents in the past two years, but with no major consequences. Which countries experienced the blockade after the Second World War. Statements coming from Brussels imply that the blockade will continue.

TEXT: The sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro lived to be two, and there are still no relevant indications that they might be lifted. In relation to Montenegro, the sanctions are especially hard on its vital interests wmbodied in the merchant fleet which is now blocked in numerous ports around the world. Close to the Montenegrin territorial waters - some 30 km from the coast - fleets of the NATO and the Western-European Union are patrolling since July 16, 1992. The initial plan was to have a group of NATO ships control the immediate accesses to Montenegrin waters, and WEU ships concentrate near the Strait of Otranto; later these roles were changed.

In November 1992, a decision was reached to begin with ship control in the Adriatic. The official name of the blockade for NATO ships is "Sea Watch", and for the WEU ships "Sharp Fence". The aim is obvious: to prevent violation of UN resolution on the sanctions by sea and to demonstrate power. Parts of the US 6th Fleet have also participated in the blockade permanently or occasionally. The fleet included aircraft carriers "John Kennedy" and "Saratoga" (USA), "Guiseppe Garibaldi" (Italy), helicopter carriers for landing operations "Ivo Jima" nad "Guam" (USA), rocket cruiser "Belcnap" (USA), rocket destroyers "Sachturis" and "Tompasis" (Greece), Bayern" and "Hamburg" (Germany), "Jean de Vienne" (France), "Glasgow" (G. Britain), "Van Konnsebergen" (Netherlands), "Piale Pasa" (Turkey) and others.

These vessels carry variegated arms. They possess rocket, artillery, torpedo and other armoury. There are no cruising rockets ("Tomahawk" type) on these vessels which are installed on some ships of the 6th Fleet which are no part of this operation.

In case of seabattles, all the vessels are equipped with cannons from 76 mm (about 8 km range) up to 127 mm (about 20 km range). There are antiship rockets on them, type "Harpoon" (130 km range), and "Ottoman" (180 km range), and two versions of "Exocet" rockets (42 km range MM-38 Exocet, and 70 km range MM-40 Exocet).

Among the anti-aircraft arms, the vessels carry rocket systems, small calibre artillery systems and single cannon batteries. There are also various anti-submarine arms and deep-sea bomb launchers.

Among the major types of combat airplanes, mostly from the USA, on board plane carriers thwe following are present in the region: fighters F-14 A "Tomcat", fighter-bombers A-6E, fighter-bombers A-7E, anti-submarine planes S-2C "Viking" and anti-submarine helicopters SH-3H "Sea King".

An analysis of the armament structure and the vessels themselves point out that the blockade is perhaps generally too unwieldy, but certainly "too powerful" for the comparatively easy task of controlling the coast. Obviously, therefore, this is a case of demonstration of power to the Serbian-Montenegrin regime.

The navy of the FRY, despite pretentious manoeuvres, could hardly be an equal in a conflict to the ships participating in the international marine blockade. Certain dose of fear was present among military circles here because of the possibility of landing of the forces of ally navy infantry at the extreme southern part of Montenegrin coast - near Ulcinj. Such an action could take place only in that part of the coast.

The Montenegrins have not been disturbed about the presence of the fleet of the Western Alliance near their coast, and there are even rumours about penetrating of the blockade here and there (with an occasional tanker of oil), with a kindly shutting of the eyes of the vessels participating in the blockade. Beginning of the sea blockade against the FRY coincided with the formation of the permanent marine forces of the NATO (STANAVFORMED) on April 8, 1992, which were formed of the ships which are now patrolling the Adriatic - from Spain, Netherlands, USA, Tyurkey, Italy, Germany, Great Britain, and Greece. From the beginning, Belgrade did not believe that these forces would participate in a possible attack on the FRY.

If the aim was to cause effects caused by a sea blockade, one could say that it has not been fully achieved, and the initial psychological effects have vanished. It is believed, however, that the presence of the ships of the Western Alliances was intended, among other, to control the situation at the border between Montenegro and Croatia. Since the introduction of the blockade, the Army of the FRY has withdrawn from the region of Konavle, and it has also left the disputable Prevlaka peninsula. Two years of the marine blockade did not pass without incidents, of course. Several jets ("Mig") of the FRY Air-Force flew over the vessels of the Western allies, but there were several disturbances of the FRY air-space by NATO aircrafts, as well.

Last summer, war ships of the FRY, probably with no need, sank an Italian fishing boat. An Italian fisherman was killed on the occasion. In April this year, a merchant boat tried to penetrate the blockade and enter Montenegrin waters. WEU fleet reacted, despite the fact that a frigate of the FRY Navy put out to sea trying to prevent the "arrest". The ship with its smugglers' load was towed to the Italian port of Bari.

In the beginning of June, the Navy of the FRY had manoeuvres called "Vrmac '94". The manoeuvres showed that the Navy is adapting primarily to coast defense, with an emphasis on coast-sea rocket systems, type "Brom" and "Svedok", and cannons "Nora" manufactured in Russia. Some sources claim that during the manoeuvres, increased activities of the ships of the Western alliances was observed.

Except for the usual phrases, Montenegrin authorities generally do not comment on the big problem of the presence of the war fleet of foreign states in close vicinity of its coast. It is believed that such a stance is the result of fear that the issue of Montenegrin merchant maritime affairs would be opened and the position of Montenegro be jeopardize.

FRY Navy Command reached a decision to build a war port in the south of the coast, to the north-west of Ulcinj. This is interpreted as further militarization of the region which would, in the long run, cause damage to tourism, which is another vitally important branch of the economy of Montenegro.

So far there were no meetings of the representatives of the Army of the FRY with the officers commanding the marine blockade. Negotiations took place on the British destroyer "Argus" towards the end of 1992, but they were about Bosnia.

Although many believe in just the opposite, NATO Secretary General, Manfred Werner, made a statement in April for the Vienna "Standard", that the "marine blockade of Serbia and Montenegro is yielding results". This and certain other indications imply that the blockade will continue.

After the Second World War, marine blockades were introduced against Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Argentina (Folkland Islands), Iran, Grenade, Nicaragua, Iraq. We are in the company of the "chosen", but noone seems to care.

Vladimir Jovanovic AIM Podgorica