WAR AS SALVATION?

It is becoming more and more certain that the present parliamentary crisis in Croatia which lasts for three months now, will end in early elections. President Tudjman will be forced to make this move, because it is very difficult to keep up the flimsy quorum his Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) has at the moment in the Assembly, but for a series of other Constitutional and practical reasons. First, the Croatian Constitution requires two thirds of votes in the House of Representatives in favour of a union with other states (this time, creation of the confederation between Croatia and Bosnian-Croatian federation), and second, the Assembly should ratify contracts on the possible prolongation of the UNPROFOR mandate. But, since the HDZ is losing popularity, the possibility that the Croatian authorities will choose the war as the option for liberating the territories held by the rebellious Serbs cannot be disregarded, as a way to restore the trust of the voters. It is hard to believe, however, that they would choose general attack as the option, but it is quite certain that they might take the advantage of an action like "Operation Maslenica", which the Croatian Army was successful in, not just in the military sense but in the sense of propaganda last year, before district elections.

AIM, ZAGREB, June 24, 1994

For three months already, a parliamentary crisis continues in Croatia, having started with the attempt to replace illegitimately the President of the House of Districts of the Assembly, Josip Manolic, and reached its climax in the foundation of a new party by HDZ dissidents, Josip Manolic and Stipe Mesic. In the menatime, a lot has happened. HDZ is faced with the possibility to lose majority of votes in the House of Representatives, it agreed to negotiate with the opposition, it even signed a kind of an agreement, just to recede from it afterwards. Presidents of both Houses were elected in the absence of the opposition: Nedjeljko Mihanovic in the House of Representatives, and Katica Ivanisevic in the House of Districts, and while the talks are going on, the Assermbly is in session and reaching decisions, although everyone is aware that there is no quorum.

Even the daily "Vjesnik", whose reporter from the Assembly openly expresses her affinity towards the HDZ, wrote a few days ago: "The House of Representatives was in session, it seemed, without a quorum. The fact is that there is no provision in the Rules of Procedure which requires that the quorum be checked. It may be done, but only if someone demands it. Noone did. So it happened that the Draft Amendment of the Constitutional Law was adopted, although its adoption requires two thirds of votes of the representatives. Noone objected to it at the session, because the members of the opposition were having talks again, but this time in their clubs".

And thus, the HDZ continues to violate the Constitution, insolently and publicly, because all sessions have live coverage on TV, and to behave haughtily in relation to the opposition. In order to keep up the tradition of insulting the opposition, inaugurated a long time ago by President Tudjman himself in his statement about the "little parties", "traitors of Jesus", dilettantes" and "exhibitionists", about his being irreplacable, this time others took upon themselves to do it. The notorious Sime Dzodan was the most ardent in it.Its the same man who dreamt to see the Croatian flag on the mount of Romanija in 1990, and now finds it hard to accept that the Croatian border lies along the Kupa river, and not the Drina. What the opposition is doing, according to this extremist, is not obstruction, because obstruction means addressing the Assembly, but this is a demonstration against the Croatian Assembly, against the Constitution, a negation of the Croatian state. Disregarding the fact that the HDZ got only 43.73 per cent of the votes in the latest elections, and that only due to the election law such as it is, it became the most powerful parliamentary party, in other words that this Party did not get the majority of votes, Dzodan, says: "This is not an opposition, it is a group of variegated little parties which neither formed an opposition block, nor do they have a program."

He is just partly right, because the opposition is not united about many issues, which is nothing peculiar when one knows that it is formed of the Croatian Party of Rights (HSP), Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS), Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SPH), Croatian National Party (HNS), Istrian Democratic Congress (IDS), Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), Serbian National Party (SNS) and independent representatives and representatives of ethnic minorities. Due to this, tactics of the HDZ to weary the opposition, due to the fact that the interests of the parties are divided, some of the parties being practically closely related to the HDZ, was partly successful. First, several independent representatives and representatives of ethnic minorities entered the Assembly, then members of the Croatian party of Rights left the opposition block, which was no surprise for anyone, and then representatives from the Serbian National Party followed, which was also expected.

But, despite all that, the problem with the quorum is increasing, but there is noone to put it on the agenda. Altogether, it all points to the conclusion that early elections are after all imminent, because what is happening in Marko's square could completely ruin the reputation of the ruling party both in Croatia, but in the world as well. Namely, it is true that the HDZ can maintain the quorum with a little help from the others, but the issue here is whether the half-empty hall can even create an illusion of democracy, and whether someone will after all decide to put the famous question: how many of us are there actually in the hall? But, there is a series of other reasons why Tudjman will have to call the elections in the foreseeable future. Slaven Letica, the former first Tudjman's adviser, claimed that it is possible to predict it precisely. The answewr can be found in Article 135 of the Constitution which reads: "The Assembly shall previously decide about a union of the Republic if the majority of two-thirds of all representatives vote in favour". This means that Washington agreement about the confederal union with the Bosnian-Croatian Federation cannot be ratified without the votes of the opposition, nor can a referendum be organized. All this holds good, under the condition that the idea about the confederation has not been abandoned and that the present negative stance of Croatian citizens towards such a union changes, which would at this moment get only 35 to 40 per cent of the votes.

The other major reason for dissolution of the Assembly are announcements of a hot political autumn when the mandate of the UNPROFOR expires, with noone in Croatia being satisfied with it, including a large number of HDZ representatives, as even Sime Dzodan said: "The UNPROFOR is staying illegally in Croatia, because the Assembly did not give it legitimacy". There are other possibilities, of course, such as for the HDZ, i.e. Tudjman, to yield to the opposition or for the President to decide to rule by decrees, which has not much footing in the Constitution. History teaches us that revolutionary authorities, and that is what the HDZ's is, do not easily abandon their positions in a legitimate way, so the 1990 slogan is becoming fashionable again: they ruled for 45 years, now it is our turn.

But, although a ll the options are still possible giving ground for various speculations, it seems that the least painful way to overcome the present crisis would be the elections. This is confirmed by an information that the HDZ has recently ordered a new election law which would enable it to win the greatest possible number of seats in the parliament with the least possible votes. But, regardless of the fact that the opposition is still not ready for the elections and that the elections do not suit the opposition due to its being disunited, it is certain that no miracle could save the HDZ from defeat. According to some investigations, which should be taken cautiously because they were made by phone, the HDZ could count on only 31 representatives in the House of Representatives, and the opposition would have as many as 89. Under the condition, of course, that the opposition wisely forms certain alliances and divides electorates.

But, judging by public appearances of Tudjman and other high officials, especially representatives of the army, it seems that the HDZ has an ace up its sleeve which it will try to use to change the present extremely unfavourable picture. Something about this could be heard at the latest so-called Assembly session, although indirectly, and it reads - war. Rumours that Croatia, should negotiations which are at a deadend fail, will be forced to liberate the occupied territories by military force on its own could be heard in various forms. This time, the cause for accusations of the UNPROFOR and its inefficiency was the case of Kakma - a waterworks near Benkovac which supplies Biograd and Zadar, which was, according to allegations of the Croatian party, blown up by Chetniks, although it is in the zone of separation, i.e. under jurisdiction of the UN.

Even the moderate Franjo Greguric raised his voice against the UNPROFOR, demanding that it finally took position on Croatian borders. Franjo Tudjman himself made an effort not to cause any confusion where the wind was blowing from when he said at the Pazin celebration of the Day of the Antifascist Struggle (May 22, when the Sisak detachment was formed) at this typical election rally: "The present international position of Croatia is such that it ensures it the possibility to defend its sovereign rights, that it will peacefully reintegrate the occupied territories. If that should not succeed, then the occupied regions will be liberated with understanding of the international community, because the international community knows that the policy of the democratic Croatia is correct and peaceful and that Croatia wishes to be a factor of peace and cooperation among nations in this part of Europe".

It is hard to believe that Croatia would get an approval of the world for military liberation of the "Krajina", and one should have certain doubts whether Croatia would be capable to do it, because, after all, it is a thousand-kilometre long frontline, the allies are dubious, and an enormous danger of further destruction of its cities and villages is present, as well as the possibility of a counter-offensive. Namely, one should not forget that the "Krajina" leans on the "Republic of Srpska", and that the latter leans on the FR of Yugoslavia. Therefore, the military option includes two possibilities. First, the Croats and the Muslims could try to take the Sava river valley corridor, regardless of the number of victims and destruction. The second is more probable and means application of the "Action Maslenica" model, which took place last year before the district elections, when Croatian army was successful in the military sense, but primarily in the sense of propaganda.

In any case, Croatia cannot endure this state much longer, the state of neither war nor peace, and both the HDZ and the opposition are unanimous about that, but a posible "small war" would be most profitable for the HDZ.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC

(7.5 pages)