THE POLITICAL PRESSURE ON MACEDONIA INCREASES

AIM, Skopje, June 7, 1994

Summary:

CSCE representatives who criticize Macedonia's northern neighbour, confirm that Serbia is increasing political pressure on Macedonia. Serbia refuses to accept that it should, in agreement with Macedonia, define the 140 km. long border line, while Serbian patrols go 200m. to 4 kms. deep into Macedonian territory. It is claimed that Serbia is increasing its pressure on Macedonia while Bulgaria is displaying increasing aggressiveness. Namely, there are rumours that material support is coming from Bulgaria in order to strengthen the Bulgarian lobby in Macedonia. Even today, Bulgaria considers Macedonia only one of its three regions, the Macedonian people Bulgarian people and the Macedonian language only a dialect of the Bulgarian language. While things are not so good with other countries, Macedonia is improving its relations with Albania from day to day: that was the purpose of the recent meeting of President Gligorov with Albanian President Berisa.

Serbia is exerting increased military pressure on the Republic of Macedonia. This assessment is confirmed by the CSCE, which criticizes Macedonia's northern neighbour Serbia. The CSCE Head of Mission in Macedonia Norman Anderson says that "from the beginning of the year, Serbia has been increasingly aggressive towards Macedonia", and that "they even arrested some Macedonian nationals".

The Serbian border authorities have not only arrested 20 Macedonian nationals from villages along the border, but also regularly threaten UNPROFOR soldiers, telling them to leave "Serbian territory". A Macedonian border crossing is also "disputable" and the Serbian authorities have issued an ultimatum to the Macedonian Army to leave it, which is also the case with a camp of an UNPROFOR patrol.

Serbia's intensified military activity in the border area was first publicly commented on by the UNPROFOR Commander in Macedonia brigadier general Trigve Telefsen, who says that smaller groups of soldiers encroach on Macedonian territory.

Macedonian Defense Minister Vlado Popovski states that nine border incidents are in question, that there are bursts of machine-gun fire, illumination and observation of Macedonian territory. He further adds that Serbian border patrols go from 200 m. to 4 kms. deep into Macedonian territory along the 140 kms long border line. The Norwegian batallion of UNPROFOR even got an ultimatum to withdraw from "Serbian" territory or it would be cut off, says Elisabeth Baldwin, UNPROFOR Information Officer.

Why is Serbia occasionally carrying out "raids" in Macedonian territory? Is it possible that the joint border line is so confusing that the precise frontier is not known in places?

Serbia has not only not recognized the Republic of Macedonia yet, but considers the border only administrative. This term, which was in use in the former Yugoslavia, was not applicable even then and is now even less. Macedonia is today an independent internationally recognized state. However, the Constitution of this state from 1945 says that the former Socialist Republic of Macedonia was defined as a state. In addition, even though the local population living near the border may not know yet exactly where it passes (because no one in the former Yugoslavia needed to be concerned with that), it can in no case be disputable for the competent authorities of the two states. Namely, communal land registers have always been extremely specific in that respect.

Serbia refuses to draw the border line in agreement with Macedonia. Some 50 thousand Serbian reserve soldiers are taking strategic points and bringing in weapons and tanks. On the other side, about a thousand foreign soldiers within UNPROFOR, among which some 500 American troops are stationed in Macedonia, which are a thorn in Serbia's eye. Serbia resents NATO increased interest in the north, to be more precise in Macedonia, Albania and Bulgaria, and not only up to the borders of Greece. Naturally, Greece also resents that.

Does Serbia wish to open a new front so that the interest of the USA and Western Europe in Bosnia might decrease? For, it wishes to reach agreement on peace in Bosnia as soon as possible since it has occupied more territories than planned, but the international sanctions have been prolonged on the other hand. It goes without saying that one of the ways to open a front is to stir up inter - ethnic tensions in Kosovo and all assessments indicate that war in Kosovo would bring many refugees to Macedonia, while a large number of Albanian volunteers from Macedonia would set off in the opposite direction. This would be an overture and a good motive for Serbian aggression.

Serbia, it seems, still wants to lay claim to the territory of Macedonia. Serbian Minister Vladislav Jovanovic said that Serbia would "in the succession proceedings with the other former Yugoslav republics advocate a division of assets according to the 1974 Constitution of the former SFRY and with Macedonia to that from 1913. "Namely, in 1913 after the second Balkan War the territory of what was once Macedonia, which had been a part of the Turkish Empire for 5 centuries, was divided among Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece. The territory of what is today the Republic of Macedonia went to Serbia, as "Southern Serbia".

Some experts on the situation in the Balkans are ready to claim that Serbia's increased pressure is also a result of the more aggressive policy of Macedonia's other neighbour - Bulgaria. Although Serbia is developing better and better relations with Bulgaria, it nevertheless observes that Bulgaria is of late more openly manifesting its wish to "make the dream of its ancestors come true" - to have Macedonia gravitate towards Bulgaria, in other words to have it annexed to Bulgaria. Namely, there are rumours that funds earmarked for this purpose are flowing in through some private and joint firms and banks being opened by representation offices in Macedonia with the aim of creating a Bulgarian lobby. Even today, Bulgaria sees Macedonia as just one of three Bulgarian regions, it considers the Macedonian people Bulgarian people and the Macedonian language a dialect of Bulgarian. These topics have been in the focus of most of the media in Bulgaria in the past month.

All this coupled with the pressure brought to bear on Macedonia by its southern neighbour, Greece, shows that the small independent state is surrounded from three sides and that perhaps some sort of an agreement lies behind all that. Greece is, in addition to the total embargo imposed on Macedonia and which cost Macedonia US $ 62 million in February alone, and a total of US$ 1.8 billion so far, also saber rattling near the border line. This should, naturally be seen primarily as psychological pressure. Nevertheless, we can assume that a possible attack on Macedonia from several quarters would represent the definite end of this small state with about 2.2 million inhabitants and its final division. In any case, this assumption does not take account of the presence of the American troops and the interests of the largest world military power - the USA.

Defense Minister Popovski upholds the opinion that Serbia and Greece possibly might be in cahoots with the aim of destabilizing Macedonia.

Macedonia is, however, exerting efforts not only to ease decades long tensions with its western neighbour, Albania, but also to develop the best possible political and economic relations with it. Serbia and Greece are continuously scaring Macedonia with the Albanians and yearning for an inter - ethnic conflict between the Macedonians and Albanians. Allegedly Albania would be to blame for that. It is precisely in this area that Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov has apparently scored a full hit by his meeting and talks with Albanian President Sali Berisha. When things are not going well with the others (not at all with Greece and Serbia, and no agreements have been signed with Bulgaria because of the so called "linguistic dispute" because Bulgaria wishes to avoid the formulation "the Macedonian language"), there is no need to run away from the fourth neighbour, with which you can trade, cooperate and talk. Instead of awaiting an inter - ethnic conflict, it is useful to discuss problems so as that they might be prevented and, incidentally some goods and oil may be brought in through the Albanian port of Durresi.

PANTA DZAMBAZOSKI