THE GAME OF NUMBERS

AIM, Skopje, June 6, 1994

Summary:

After it gained independence, one of the most favourite political games in Macedonia is the game of numbers, i.e. competing in estimates of the national composition of the population. This game has particularly "warmed up" after the 1991 census which the Albanians boycotted. According to this political mathematics and their "counters", the Albanians accounted for about 40 percent of the population. The Macedonian "counters" counted with less than 20 percent of the Albanians, which was also the expert estimate of the State Statistical Office. With a view to putting an end to such manipulations and establishing a basis for a reasonable dialogue among different ethnic entities, the European Commission for Demographic Issues has, both professionally and financially assisted the drafting of the Law on the Census so that it would be acceptable for everyone.

After months of haggling the Census Law was adopted so that the census will be carried out between June 21 and July 5. The Law on the Census enables the citizens of non - Macedonian nationality to declare themselves in their mother tongue, which was the cause of the most heated disccusions, since the Constitution of Macedonia recognizes the Macedonian language as the only official language. Some opposition parties, headed by VMRO - DPMNE have announced legal action before the Constitutional Court. It seems that all fear the census equally and that that fear results from the possible surprises that the outcome of the census could bring which could disperse the illusions of one's own greatness.

In the past few years, and especially after it became independent one of the favourite political games in Macedonia has been the game of numbers. The subject of counting was no money, which everyone certainly lacks or some other similar commodity, but people, to be more precise people of different nationalities inhabiting this smallest of the Balkan countries. This game especially "picked up" after the unsuccessful 1991 census which was boycotted by the Albanians. Thus the lack of official (precise) data on the size of the different ethnic entities was amply made up for figures from "up one's sleeve". Sometimes these calculations seemed to be coming from a magician's workshop, but despite the fact that they were logically untenable, they often successfully played their main role - namely stirred up trouble. In these unofficial, actually made up estimates, the "counters", i.e. "analysts" almost as a rule presented themselves to be far more numerous than they could really be.

In this political mathematics, the Albanians did not lag behind the others, so that they too adduced the fact that they accounted for about 40% of the population. The other side returned tit for tat, and even challenged the results, i.e. the expert assessments of the State Statistical Office about some 20% Albanians in Macedonia, claiming that the Albanians in Macedonia originate from two shepherds, as an Assembly deputy recently said, or from Kosovo and Albania.

The question of who is the most numerous, and how many more of them there are than others, has become an issue of primary political importance for almost all political factors, and it has often called into question the results of the genuine democratic achievements in Macedonia, which are indisputable. Proceeding from the intention to put an end to these manipulations, and with the aim of creating a basis for a reasonable dialogue among the different ethnic entities, and especially between the Macedonians and the Albanians, as the two most numerous ones, the European Demographic Commission has set up an expert group to help draw up a census law acceptable for all sides. This institution also undertook the financial responsibility for this statistical operation which will cost about 1.5 million ECU.

Recently, the Law on the population census passed the most difficult obstacle - the Macedonian Parliament. As could have been expected, it met with strong resistance there, especially on the part of the Macedonian right parties, which are in opposition, although it was not favourably received by the Albanian deputies either, who submitted scores of amendments to the draft bill. Finally, thanks to a compromise the Census Law was adopted, and the period from June 25 to July 5 this year was set for its implementation. Consequently, there are only two weeks to wait for the beginning of the clearing up of the figures, although the results of the census will be available much later.

However, already now, only a few days after the initial confusion following the adoption of the law, the first signs of addiction to "sweet uncertainty" are surfacing, which gave local politicians much leeway for political manouevres. The Macedonian opposition has announced its intention to institute legal proceedings before the Constitutional Court on account of the "violation of the Constitution of Macedonia", because the new census law enables citizens to declare themselves, in addition to the Macedonian language, in their mother tongues as well, i.e. in Albanian, Turkish, Serbian, Wallachian and Romany. This is sufficient proof for the opposition, and especially for the largest party VMRO-DPMNE, that this is a traitor goverment and that it is violating the Constitution of the state, according to which the official language is Macedonian, with its Cyrillic alphabet. The Government's explanation that this was being done for the purpose of getting relevant census data were to no avail, when we know that the political platform of this party is based on the idea of the majority of the Macedonian nation and the minority of the others. It is however, clear that fear of a possible surprise is in question, which would topple the concept of one's own size.

On the other hand, it is more than evident that the Albanians too are not indifferent to a possible unpleasant surprise which would show that they are fewer in number than they imagine. This fear or anxiety is seen in the fact that they are frenziedly pointing to "loopholes" in the law which could possibly reduce their numbers, and at the same time they are criticizing the police authorities which have not completed the issuing of citizenship certificates, which are the main document if the population census is to be valid. This census is actually a major problem for many Albanian families who have kinship ties with Kosovo (spouses or parents born there) or who come from there. There are also objections that the date set for the census is too early and objections to the composition of the census commissions and census-takers in the field, who were not appointed on the parity principle.

Nevertheless, it is clear to both sides that this time there is no chance to change anything or possibly to boycott this census "in sign of protest". Especially given the fact that the European Comission has made it clear to everyone that it will no longer tolerate "jokes" and because all sides were consulted and asked for their opinions before the adoption of this Law. It is evident that the game of numbers will soon come to an end.

IBRAHIM MEMEDOV