IS CROATIA THREATENED BY A COUP?

AIM, ZAGREB, May 26, 1994

Commenting on the latest turnabouts in the Croatian Parliament in an interview to the the Croatian weekly the "Globus" Drazen Budisa, President of the strongest Croatian opposition party - the Croatian Social Liberal Party - assesses that, unless President Tudjman and the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) let up and allow the implementation of the Inter - Party Parliamentary Agreement signed last week, the Parliament will be dissolved and new elections called. Although Budisa claims that the Croatian leaders are ready for the elctions, he adds: "...but, I do not wish elections to be called in such a chaotic situation. Elections in political chaos, as the one currently reigning in Croatia, could end up in showdowns in the street and mass violence". He also says that it is "undubitable that in Croatia there are political forces which are giving serious thought to seizing power by force".

The Croatian Democratic Union has actually already applied force in both houses of the Assembly, with the blessing of President Tudjman. Namely, despite the Inter - Party Parliamentary Agreement, the representatives of the ruling party first in the District House, after their candidate, Katica Ivanisevic was, in keeping with the Inter

• Party Agreement elected President of the House, prevented the election of the opposition candidate Josip Manolic to the office of Vice-President of the House and, after the opposition, in sign of protest, left the session, in view of the fact that they constitute a majority, continued work even happy that they didn't have to contend with the stances of the opposition and that they could smoothly and unanimously pass decisions, including the one to reject the proposal to relieve of office Defense Minister Gojko Susak and Minister of Education and Culture Vesna Jurkic-Girardi. However, they did not stop there.

After the opposition persisted in its demand for the realisation of the inter-party agreement on the resolution of the crisis and its candidate for Vice-President of the District House to be elected to that function, refusing to take part in the work of the Parliament until that demand was met, violating the Rules of Procedure the HDZ representatives convened and held the session of the House of Representatives at which they relieved of office its President Stipe Mesic and elected Nedjeljko Mihanovic. The opposition which is, for the time being, united, naturally denies the legitimacy of these decisions of the HDZ part of the House of Representatives recalling the provisions of the Rules of Procedure according to which only Stipe Mesic could preside over the sessions. Vice-Presidents of the House may act in his place only in case of his absence or inability to attend, and only on his authorisation. As he was at that time in Parliament at the meeting of all clubs of the opposition parties, and as the Rules of Procedure prescribe that the House cannot be in session while the clubs are in meetings, the opposition shall demand an inquiry into the constitutionality of the session of the HDZ part of the House of Representatives by the Constitutional Court.

Still, in order to find a way out of the blind alley into which the Croatian Parliament has strayed, the opposition is willing to accept the new election of Presidents from among more candidates, but only by secret ballot and if the same is applied to the already elected Madam President of the District House Katica Ivanisevic. Although HDZ refuse a repetition of elections for President of the District House, it seemed that a compromise was possible. But, on Wednesday a letter was introduced into the game. Namely, after a brief meeting of the negotiating parties, the HDZ negotiator Jure Radic said: "In between the two meetings of the negotiating teams we have received a letter which Messers Mesic and Manolic have sent to the American Congress defaming and accusing the Croatian state. We have informed the opposition parties of this at the meeting and said that HDZ will not and can no longer even discuss the possibility of accepting Messers Mesic and Manolic as candidates for any functions in Parliament whatsoever". Stipe Mesic immediately denied that either he or Manolic had sent the mentioned letter, while Drazen Budisa also requested a criminal investigation which would throw light on the latest scandal. Thereby the Parliamentary crisis reached its climax.

It is no wonder then that Budisa warns that all totalitarian regimes have started their seizure of power by criticising Parliament, blocking its work and attacking it. It doesn't seem good when Parliament is criticized with the message: we do not need the Parliament. It is a fact that almost all that has happened in Parliament is a plain farce, that we are therefore representatives of a farcical parliament, but it is better to have a political system with the worst of parliaments, than a political system without a parliament. The Nazis and Communists claimed that truth and justice are above a bourgeois parliamentary order, so that they have prepared the public opinion for the toppling of parliamentarism and a take over of power. It is possible that something like this will happen in Croatia. The responsibility for preventing this from happening is on President Tudjman and the Croatian Democratic Union, primarily them".

Irrespective of such Budisa's estimates and evaluations it is obvious that a pendulum is hanging over Parliament and it is not yet known on which side it will stop - the one that leads to total dictatorship or the one that will preserve some sort of democracy. And while during last week, after the signing of the Inter- Party Agreement it still seemed that everything was leading to more peaceful democratic waters, this week's session proves Budisa's darkest premonitions right. Although already last week it was possible to envisage that it would not be so easy to reach these more peaceful waters. For eaxmple, just before the signing of the Inter - Party Agreement the HDZ representative Djuro Perica loudly convinced a group of his party colleagues in the parliament coffee shop that instead of persuading and haggling with the opposition, they should formally accept all their requests so as to deblock the Parliament, and then take advantage of their parliamentary majority and do what they want. That is exactly what happened. On that same evening immediately after the signing of the Agreement Perica, obviously was not the only one to think so in the HDZ Deputy Club. During the intra-HDZ showdown which lasted almost all night, outnumbered were those who advocated the signing of the Agreement and cooling off the situation in Parliament.

The HDZ found its strong point for breaching the agreement in the refusal to accept Mesic and Manolic as the opposition candidates for vice-presidents, thereby evidently at the very beginning annulling the provision of the agreement to the right of the opposition to have two vice-presidents of its own choice in each of the Houses. Although not isolated are the opinions that the opposition unnecessarily exacerbated matters by insisting that both Mesic and Manolic be vice-presidents of the Houses, it is clear that in so doing it only availed itself of its right agreed on with HDZ. All things considered, in addition to pathological hatred towards Manolic and Mesic in a large number of HDZ representatives, at the root of the conflict between HDZ and the opposition is the struggle for preponderance not only in Parliament, but also throughout Croatia. And although the HDZ constantly repeats that the departure of Manolic and Mesic and the founding of the Independent Croat Democrats (HND) did not result in a major schism in the ruling party, events, especially in Zagreb and the Zagreb District prove the contrary. Namely, part of the representatives in both Parliaments have left the HDZ and gone over to the HND in which way the HDZ has lost the majority it had so far.

If this process continues, and there are many indications to that end, the HDZ would practically,without elections, lose most of the power it had in regional and local parliaments and in the Parliament itself. To prevent that President Tudjman and the HDZ leadership, with the all-out support and often at the initiative of the party right, ever more frequently do not chose the means to destroy the unity of the opposition and especially suppress the activity of Mesic and Manolic which is directly eroding their ranks. However, they are increasingly making mistakes. On Thursday morning they had to admit that the alleged Mesic-Manolic letter addressed to the United States Congress in which they sling mud at the Croatian authorities, and thereby also betray the national interests, which was immediately launched in order to publicly compromise the double M-M was plain forgery. Such moves not only make them less convincing in the public, but also return to the HDZ as a boomerang.

It is increasingly evident that the ranks of HDZ representatives in both Houses are fewer in number. At first glance it is easy to observe that the one-party HDZ sessions of both Houses, which are going on for the fourth day now despite everyting, have no quorum which proves that even a number of HDZ representatives are fed up with the use of the "terror of the majority". This, for its part shows that the HDZ will have, in the end, to accept a compromise with the oppostion and by giving effect to the already signed Agreement on the overcoming of the parliamentary crisis, deblock the work of the Parliament and a major part of the state authorities. In any case, it is impossible to disregard Budisa's fears that those who wish to take power into their own hands by a coup de etat or sheer force might also appear on the scene.

ZORAN DASKALOVIC