THE END OF A PARTY STATE

If the present amoeba trend continues, all chances are that as many as twenty political parties will be represented in the Parliament, rather than 10 how many won the confidence of the voters at the 1992. elections. Croatia could thus make the Guinness Book of Records, and the keepers of national unity see the curse about two Croats and three parties come true.

And it all began as far back as the first multi-party elections in 1990. The divisions were most apparent in the left-wing parties, namely the present day SKH-SDP, since not only did a large number of members cross over to the HDZ or some other national party, but in addition, the Socialist Party of Croatia and the Social Democratic Party joined the election race. The right-wing was likewise not immune from splits, namely at the very first constituent meeting of the Croatian Democratic Union Dr. Franjo Tudjman and Dr. Marko Veselica conflicted regarding who should have presidential authority. Veselica then formed the Croatian Democratic Party, but although he was called the "Croatian Mendela", for having spent 11 years in prison, he did not succeed in winning a seat in Parliament.

There were no spectacular transfers or divisions in the first composition of the Assembly, but immediately prior to the 1992 elections the amoeba virus began to spread threatening with a real epidemic. The left-wing was once again struck most severely, particularly Racan's Social Democratic Party which was still not forgiven by its numerous members for having established such a "sisterly" relation with the HDZ, and for its policy of so called constructive opposition. The Serbs in Croatia left Racan's Party first,and then the faction headed by Branko Horvat who soon formed the Social Democratic Union. Numerous intellectuals turned their backs on the SDP too, because they were not satisfied with Racan's style of rule, comparing him to a small Tudjman and opposing SDP's neglect of social programmes and its lack of reaction regarding Croatia's evident turn to the right.

The left-wing was so split up, that as many as four social democratic parties ran in the elections, winning a total of 8.37% of the votes, but only Racan's SDP succeeded in making the Parliament with 5.40% of the votes. The Croatian National Party,(HNS) lead by Dr. Savka Dapcevic-Kucar also experienced great perturbations, since only a few days before the elections some members who actually never belonged there by their political orientation since they were hard-line Rightist left the Party and formed the National Social League, which never really became a relevant force, and Dr. Mate Mestrovic joined Budisa's Social Liberal Party. Actually, the HNS began definitely disintegrating already then, and when the election results were counted and secured this strange combination of "Croatian Spring" followers 6.55% of the votes and therefore only 6 seats in Parliament, the disappointment was complete.

After the elections, convincingly won by the HDZ members, who owe their tryumph to the electoral law which does not exist anywhere else in the world, winning over 60% of the seats in Parliament with approximately 43% of the votes, the divisions continued. First the controversial Vladimir Bebic, who otherwise calls himself the shadow president of the Republic crossed over from the Rijeka Democratic Union to the Democratic Christians, and then proclaimed himself an independent representative. After that a split appeared in the Croatian Party of Right which divided into Paraga's and Djapic's factions, and the same disease struck The Istrian Democratic Union whose excluded representatives, headed by Ivan Herak announced the formation of a new Istrian Party. Unexpectedly, Horvat's SDU became a Parlaimentary party since Nedljeljko Tomic joined it after leaving the SDP.

However, all these were small shocks until finally the big bang took place, namely the disintegration of the Croatian Democratic Union, which no longers knows, after Manolic's and Mesic's goodbuys to Tudman, whether it has a parliamentary majority or not and whether it will be compelled to call extraordinary elections. Only the M-M pair with their Croatian Independent Democrats rocked the boat of the until recently arrogant and dictatorial, untouchable ruling party. By exerting pressure and resorting to blackmail, Tudjman and the HDZ brought back into their flock a number of defectors and thus considerbly lowered the initial number of 18 Assembly representatives who intended to cross over to the HND, continuing feverishly to calculate what will happen when in ten days or so (the Assembly has been convened for May 17) when Mesic and Manolic will be asked to resign. The Presidency of the HDZ holds that both of them must go - Mesic from the office of President of the Chamber of Representatives being at the same time the Speaker of Parliament and Manolic from the office of President of the Chamber of Provinces. THe question is whether the voting machine of the HDZ, which in similar situations to date encountered no problems will be successfull on this occasion.

It is indicative that a few days ago in a secret vote among three candidates for the future President of the Assembly, the academician Nedjeljko Mihanovic won (28 votes), the second was Dr. Franjo GreguriS (19 votes) and the third Boris Cegota (15 votes, while two members of the Club of HDZ representatives wrote the name of Dr. Ante KLaric on the ballot paper. Why indicative? First of all because out of 85 official representatiaves of the HDZ the session was attended by only 64, leaving room for various calculations. Second, although in all truth the greatest number of votes was given to a hard-line right winger, as compared to the other candidates who belong more to the left or centre, if the ir votes were added they would have easily beat Mihanovic. Therefore there is certanily a reason why the final decision is to be brought by the Presidency of the HDZ, meaning Tudjman himself.

All this goes to show that the divisions within the HDZ are much deeper that Tudjman and his associates wish to admit, and even though it will be insisted on a public expression of views, since that is only way possible to use the institution of whip, or party discipline, the dilemma remains whether Mesic, and even Manolic, although the balance of power in the Chamber of Provinces is more in favour of the ruling party, will be removed from office.

It is difficult to assume that the HDZ will be able to achieve, if in the meantime a consensus is not reached as in the case of abstaining from attacks over the media, a majority of 79 representatives, not only because of the known defectors but because it is considered that the M-M pair is keeping a trump-card or two up their sleaves, namely, that they have not made public as yet all the names of their future members or sympathizers. The second reason for the insecurity of the HDZ should be looked for in the fact that after quite some time the entire opposition is united in the belief that the time has finally come to say NO! to the arrogant majority. All the parliamentary parties, (except the Serbian National Party for which it is never known how it will vote, since usually one is for, the second against and the third representative abstained) consider this to be a test for Croatian democracy and that it was high time to strike back for all the humiliation they had to bear in the last four years.

Aware of this the HDZ tried to stir up discontent among the opposition, offering for example Drazen Budisa to be the Vice-President of the Assembly, and to Dr. Zlatko Kramaric, another high official of the HSLS, the office of Vice-President in the Government. Of course all in exchange for 14 votes of the Liberals, although rumours have it that it has all been refused as well as Manolic's previous attempt to have his HND act as some sort of mediator of the opposition. A whole series of similar actions and attempts to lobby publicly, secretly, half-secretly, officially and unoffcially is expected in the next few weeks, in order to save what can be saved and finally resolve the question: elections or no elections?

At this moment elections do not suit anyone, but one thing is certain: Manolic is completely right when he says that the HDZ can no longer win the elections. Polls show that the HDZ would now win 34.6%, the HSLS 32.5, HND 7%, HSS 4.5%,IDS 3.7%,HNS 3.4% SDP 3% of the votes, etc. However two thirds of the interviewees did not give a precise answer, so it should all be taken with a reservation, as well as the estimates that at the next presidential elections 45.2% of the electorate would vote for Tudjman again, 25.5% for Budisa and only 5.5% for Mesic. But there is somethign even more important than the fact that the HDZ would have to, in case of losing the majority and of not being able to create a coalition, call elelctions, and that is the fact that the new election law could no longer be shaped according ot its measure.

Some other "details" too will not be in favour of the party now in rule. Since regardless of the fact that the number of parliamentary parties in the Assembly is growing, that does not seem to be the real reflection of the developments on the Croatin political scence. Parallel with the atomization, the process of creating powerful and recognizable political parties or election blocks is underway in Croatia. This applies in particular to the left-wing, where hopes are not placed so much in the unification of Racan's and Vujic's parties , as much as in the creation of a new party lead by Miko Tripalo, and which would not be the mathematical sum of existing parties but would gather through its programme all those numerous malcontents tired of spectacular strifes of midget parties, and which would turn before all to the working population and youth, as well as to small and medium shareholders and interpreneurs who finally wish to see a constitutional social state at work.

Tripalo himself believes that such a party could count upon approximately 20-30% of the votes. Then there is the HND which also counts on approximately the same percent. In such a calculation the HSLS could appear as the most powerful force, of course along with the HDZ. From among the more serious parties, the HSS and the HSP should be added, and from among the regional ones, only the Istrian Democratic Union.

In spite of the saying "two Croats three parties", it is to be assumed that the existing opposition will not repeat its mistake and that at the next elections there will be no "throwing away of votes."Since at the 1992 elections, 11 midget parties, from uttermost left to uttermost right received a total of 12.83% votes, something that benefited only the HDZ. At the next elections which are definitely to be held, three electoral blocks could appear: SDP,HDZ and the Coalition of National Agreement. However this time the results should be quite different, meaning that Croatia will finally have after a Communist-party, and then one-party a multi-party parliament, namely do definitely away with a party state.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC