THE CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ) HAS FALLEN APART

AIM, ZAGREB, April 7, 1994

Speculations have become reality: the Croatian Democratic Union, who presently has an absolute majority in both Chambers of the Assembly will formally split into two parties. And should only sixteen deputies of the Chamber of Representatives leave Tudjman's Party,in addition to the number of dissidents of which there are according to estimates up to thirty, it may just happen that the HDZ will become an opposition party, something that would compel Tudjman to dissolve the Parliament and call early elections. Namely, after the Presidency of the HDZ decided ten days ago during an Assembly session to exclude Josip Manolic from all Party bodies and asked for his removal from the office of President of the Chamber of Provinces,the disintegration of the HDZ gained such momentum that even the name of the new party is already known - Independent Democrats.

Such an outcome of the conflict within the HDZ, considering that it was seen by everyone and that it resulted in the spreading of stories, which have been circulating for quite some time now, regarding the existence of three factions within the Party - the left, right and technocratic wing,regardless of what its leadership had to say, began unfolding after Josip Manolic, very frankly and sharply, criticized in a number of newspaper interviews Croatian official policy,particularly regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina, the functioning of the legal state and violation of human rights. In these interviews, Manolic did not spare Tudjman himself, accusing him of inconsistency and requesting the removal from office of the Minister of Defence, Gojko Susak, who was, in his opinion, together with Tudjman,to blame for the uncalled for year long war with the Muslims.

Tudjman reacted in the only way his vanity, egocentricity, messianism and arrogance could dictate: destroy Manolic here and now. For all that he did not shrink from violating the statute of his own Party, nor was he interested in the democratic procedure of Manolic's removal from office. It became known very soon that there was no voting at the session of the HDZ Presidency, that only three "hawks": Antun Vrdoljak, Ivan Milas and Ivic Pazalic opted for a showdown, but also that during the session itself an action of collecting signatures was initiated in connection with the dismissals in the Chamber Provinces. That no conclusions were brought, except the taking of disciplinary action is best illustrated by the fact that Manolic in a later interview, when he had already decided to leave the HDZ and form a new party, asked for the phonogram from the session to be published which to date provoked no response from any of the HDZ members.

Nevertheless, a clash broke out in Parliament over the interpretation of the Rules of Procedure of the Chamber of Provinces, since Manolic refused to put on the agenda the question of his removal from office, considering that by doing so he was not violating the Rules of Procedure that have been, nota bene, shaped precisely for the needs of the ruling party and which give enormous powers to the President. Due to that procedural entanglement, but actually because of the uncivilized behaviour of the HDZ, the session of the Chamber of Provinces was discontinued until an opinion of the Commission for the Constitution, Rules of Procedure and Legality wass obtained. The Chairman of the Commission, member of the HSLS, Tereza-Ganza-Aras thus received as the representatives of the strongest opposition party, a hot potato in her lap. Although the opinions of constitutional law experts were divided, and anyone with any legal knowledge could see that Manolic was right, it was decided by outvoting (9:7) that he was in violation of the Rules of Procedure.

However, this did not put a stop to the Parliamentary crisis, since according to the Constitution, the Chamber of Representatives cannot bring any decisions until previously the laws are not discussed in the Chamber of Provinces. But then again according to the Constitution, the President is empowered with discretionary powers to decided when the sessions will be convened. Therefore, everything is in Manolic's hands once again, who certainly shall not waste time and thus open the possibility of being accused, in a emphatic campaign over the strictly controlled media, of destroying the state. According to some information, Manolic has conveneda session of the Chamber of Provinces for April 28 and has included on the agenda the issue of his relief from office.

An old police and political fox, who, according to general opinion, was the key architect of two election victories for the HDZ, has probably carefully planned the timing, while in the meanwhile new and surprising events are taking place.

The great majority of the public in Croatia was surprised how unrelentingly and decisively the President of the Assembly, Stipe Mesic took Manolic's side in his interviews, first to "Feral Tribune" and immediately after that to "Globus", stating openly that Stalinism was returning to Croatia. The fact that not only the public was surprised but Tudjman himself is best illustrated by the cancellation, without any explanation, of the President's regular press conference announced on Tuesday. Tudjman was evidently not ready to meet with the press and explain what was happening and why the people who had previously advocated the solutions which were now gradually and painstakingly being implemented after the Washington Agreement had to leave the Party.

Many, like Manolic and Mesic, are rightfully asking, is all this not a knife in the back of these agreements and whether in that case the Croatian signatures are sincere. A session of the HDZ Presidency was set for Wednesday at 8:00 p.m., and although until time of writing this text no inforamtion leaked as to what has been decided there, one can presume that this time Mesic would be brought up for discussion, and that Tudjman had perhaps decided to remove him as well.

Mesic himself in an informal conversation with the journalists, although it should be kept in mind that he too is an excellent "player" and that he was not just accidently in the immediate vicinity of the Assembly hall in which a decision was to be brought about the Rules of Procedure, said that he would not attend the session as " he was not feeling very well." He said that as a joke, evidently in good spirits and not worried at all, alluding to his alleged illness when during a session of Parliament Tudjman made him take a vacation and get some rest. Knowing how many journalists would be there, Mesic actually took the opportunity to inform them about the establishment of the new party and to repeat one more time, that neither he or Manolic planned to resign but would leave everything to be settled according to procedure, and then see who is stronger.

An Assembly representative, father Tomislav Pavao Duka also took advantage of the present journalists and gave them a written statement in which he announced: "that as of today he was no longer a member of the HDZ". The reason being:" Considering that for quite some time now I personally have noted the numerous violations of democratic principles, which I take as a personal insult and experience feel as a form of humiliation, I am forced in the name of the authentic principles and my commitment to democracy and Croatia to leave the HDZ." Father Duka has thus become an independent Assembly representative, and answering a journalist who asked him whether he would remain so, said in passing: "For the time being." Some connect father Duka's action with Kaptol, interpreting it as a possible sign that the Church as well no longer agreed with the official policy, something that would be disastrous for Tudjman who won the elections with the direct support of the Church.

Already on Thursday morning, at the beginning of the sitting of the Chamber of Representatives, Duka changed places and joined a group of independent representatives, although when the Assembly began its session everything was normal. However, around noon, Stipe Mesic made a break since the representatives of the HDZ asked for a pause to hold a meeting of their Club attended by President Tudjman himself.

It seems that in this whole embroilment, the opposition did not quite see how the land lies. And although it is now gloating at the course of events both in and around the HDZ, it is all but frightened of the possibility of taking the lead together with the Manolic-Mesic party. At a meeting held last week, it refused the offer of Manolic becoming the coordinator of the opposition. Drazen Budisa is not hiding his aspirations to be just that, but it seems that the opposition parties actually do not know what it is they should do. It is aware that something big is happening, however its confusion was apparent during its contacts with the press, when Tereza-Ganza-Aras went as far as to compare this stalemate position with the Yeltzin-Hazbulatov strife only to claim, when a journalist asked who was Yeltzin and who Hazbulatov, that such comparisons were a little too far fetched.

Although as many as five parties are at stake : the Croatian Social-Liberal Party, the Croatian Peasants'Party, the Istrian Democratic Union, the Social Democratic Party and the Croatian National Party, they succeed in reaching an agreement on a frontal attack on Tudjman's policy. They called for the cessation of all political talks with the representatives of Serbia and so called FR of Yugoslavia until: Serbia and Montenegro do not recognize Croatia in its internationally recognized borders; until Serbia does not stop rendering political and logistic support to the rebelled Serbs and withdraw the Serbian dinars from payment operations on the occupied territories; until the Serbian army and Serbian outlaws do not cease with their criminal attacks on Croatian cities and settlements and with ethnic cleansing on occupied territories; until the Serbian outlaws do not accept the resolution of their political requests within the Republic of Crotia in accordance with the Constitutional Law on Human Rights and Freedoms and Rights of Ethnic and National Communities or Minorities in the Republic of Croatia, internationl acts on the rights of national communities and existing experience.

The withdrawal of the representatives of Croatia from Belgrade is called for, the closing down of the Bureau in Belgrade and the calling off of the representative of the so called Yugoslavia in Zagreb. The executive authorities are requested to have the Republic of Croatia condition the prolongation of UNPROFOR's mandate by the securing of Croatian borders with Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the implementation of the other UN Security Council resolutions. The opposition parties represented in the Chamber of Provinces consider that UNPROFOR has actually been deployed on the borders of Krajina, whereby the process of making a Cyprus out of Croatia has begun, as well as that President Tudjman has placed Croatia with his hitherto policy in a position of having to accept the dictate of others.

Thereby, the opposition has actually indentified itself with the stands of the right wing of the HDZ, which although silent for the moment is frantically defending President Tudjman's moves. However the disintegration of the HDZ could continue and Tudjman find himself in an exposed position. Namely, if he is not afraid of Manolic's followers, and that he demonstrated by a number of steps he has taken, the question is whether he is aware that the real danger lies in the right wing of his party, which will certainly not forgive him for "the betrayal of Croatian interests."

It is more than certain that Croatia is entering yet another very difficult period in which all options are open, including some of the versions of the Russian White House event. At a time when it seemed that tension among the people has begun to ease, that everyone was tired of the war and saw only in negotiations a way out of the present situation, many are now asking who is to appear as Croatia's Zhirinowsky and will Croatia take another step to the right?

GOJKO MARINKOVIC