WHERE ARE THE POLITICIANS HEADING?

AIM, ZAGREB, April 7, 1994

The Sarajevo days of the Constituent Assembly have shown how the incredible stampede of American diplomacy changes from the very foundations all that until then seemed petrified and definite in Bosnia and Herzegovina. While the Bosnian-Herzegovinian delegates stalled the voting on the Federation, reducing all their national - party frustrations to the level of the dilemma of whose and what flag will decorate that historical act, American flags were flying on each corner in Sarajevo, the opening of the American Embassy was enthusiastically cheered, while Madaleine Albright declared that the future of B&H is the future of America. However, the federal contitutional package will inevitably cause personnel changes in the ruling structure, but also in the party leaderships. After the dissolution of the B&H Presidency, all must find their place under the political sun, from Tanja Ljujic - Mijatovic to Alija Izetbegovic, while the centers of the leading parties - SDA and HDZ - are being divided and polarized into those who are quickly realigning themselves to the federal political concept and those who find it hard to put aside their national exclusivism.

The conflict in the SDA between Izetbegovic and Silajdzic, which will allegedly culminate in their mutual political destruction ranks best in cloakroom gossip. Namely, returning to his position of President of the Party, accepting this function, Izetbegovic tried to persuade the membership that the Moslems were sufficient unto themselves, and that joint life was a LIE! Two days later, addressing the Bosnian-Herzegovinian Parlamentarians, Silajdzic stressed quite the opposite stating that there could be no collective guilt of a people, that there could be no second class citizens in a democracy such as B&H is aspiring to become, but also invited the Serbs to join the B&H Federation. That the Prime Minister's address was at the same time the reply to Izetbegovic's speech at the SDA Convention is confirmed by information coming from the Party that a hunt against Silajdzic was being prepared and his political demise elaborated.

What the Bosnian - Herzegovinian Prime Minister can be easily reproached for, what the SDA will first take up in settling accounts with him, are the million worth bills which he signed in world capitals and nepotism in his former Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is well known that diplomatic and consular representatives of B&H abroad were appointed exclusively at the discretion of Prime Minister Silajdzic, that his own sister is the Ambassador to Pakistan, while the Sarajevo media today are extensively writing about the scandal concerning his younger brother Nusref, against whom, allegedly 19 criminal charges have been brought for criminal acts and whom his older brother Haris appointed to sign millions of dollars worth contracts in Islamic countries on behalf of the B&H Government. Together with a few unaccounted for bills bearing Silajdzic's signature this would be more than enough to discredit the ever more popular Prime Minister of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

However, by winning a very important battle in the B&H Parliament he has secured the continuity of his cabinet in the Federation - Silajdzic still holds the place of the first Bosnian - Moslem in the Federation - and automatically retains the place of one of the three Vice-Presidents of the Party. At any rate, his rival to date for the place "next to Izetbegovic", the former Yugoslav Ejup Ganic, holds the place of the second Vice-President of the SDA, which could at the moment play into Silajdzic's hands because of Ganic's well-known fickleness. The third Vice-President of the SDA is Izetbegovic's colleague from court trials Edhem Bisakcic, the would-be President of the Moslem Assembly and Silajdzic's possible opponent. However, from the position of the legal Prime Minister of the Federation, but also a man whom the Americans chose to promote the Federation, Silajdzic will not find it hard to return the blow, naturally primarily resorting to the party's "dirty linen". Thereby speculations on Silajdzic and Izetbegovic mutuallly dragging each other to the bottom could come true, while the latter still has a place in the American vision of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Precisely for that reason, to remove Silajdzic and restore his personal positions in the Federation, Izetbegovic could chose a much easire route which would not demand confrontations in the Party ranks - take advantage of the division among the Bosnian-Herzegovinian Croats over their candidate for the post of President of the Federation, and offer them a swap of the post of President for that of Prime Minister. Namely, although the Bosnian - Herzegovinian part of HDZ delegates won a convincing victory over the "Herzeg - Bosnian" part concerning the election of Vladimir Pandzic and not Ivan Bender as President of their Delegate Club, the other part of the battle - the candidacy of Ivo Komsic for President of the Federation is hardly likely to come true.

The Catholic church in B&H and Croats outside Herzegovina are still behind Komsic. However, the counter- candidate Kresimir Zubak is a favourite of official Zagreb, but what may prove decisive is that he is a member of HDZ, which Komsic never was. Siding with Komsic's option and adding a weight on the side which is hardly likely to tip the scales, Izetbegovic is actually making room for his comeback as possible President of the Federation, and as a solution to the Croatian quandary, offering them the post of Prime Minister, Silajdzic's post.

The rest of the B&H Presidency is also speculating with its political future. SDP leader Nijaz Durakovic is trying to awaken the party past. His Party which has been ruling shoulder to shoulder with the SDA for a long time now, by attracting new people to its membership intends to capitalize on its lost image of an opposition party. With a view to strengthening the SDP Presidency, scattered throughout state institutions, Embassies and Consulates, Durakovic allegedly offered the post of one of the members of the SDP Presidency to the former army leader, the controversial Sefer Halilovic. A lady from the top leadership of the state, also a member of the SDP, Tanja Ljujic - Mijatovic is the most serious candidate for the UN Mission in Vienna, which coincides with her family plans, because most of the members of the Ljujic - Mijatovic family are in that Austrian city. Vienna would, for the same reasons be suitable for the former, never verified President of the B&H Assembly, Miro Lazovic, but he will, just like Mirko Pejanovic, have to be satisfied with a place in the SDP Presidency.

The once popular Sarajevan Stjepan Kljujic is more than satisfied for having retained the post of director of the Olympic Committee of B&H since his political credibility has been completely exhausted a long time ago. However, despite this fact, Kljujic has for a long time now, been announcing the founding or revival of Muhic's Republican Party. Either because the followers of the late Muhic do not trust Kljujic or because he cannot "catch" enough of them to register the Party, the Republican Party of Stjepan Kljujic is just an announcement.

In addition to the politicians, professional Bosnian

• Herzegovinian soldiers are also starting to suffer from the federative headache. The intention to merge the B&H army and HVO forces requires a new General Staff comprised of five Moslems and five Croats, which means for example, that there is no place for general Jovan Divjak. In any case his presence was already challenged by Ante Roso at the last negotiations between the B&H Army and the the HVO demanding that "a Serb" be removed from the Bosnian delegation.

The Federation has been signed, but the federal game is evidently just begining. Much before the announced elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

DRAZENA PERANIC