WHAT TOOK PLACE IN THE RUSSIAN EMBASSY?

AIM, ZAGREB, March 24, 1994

A large group of domestic and foreign journalists in vain besieged the building of the Russian Embassy at 44, Bosanska Street in Zagreb (is there any symbolism in this?) because even after 14 hours of waiting they didn't manage to find out what was actually happening behind its well locked and barred doors and why were the negotiations between the representatives of the Croatian authorities and the Serbs from the occupied areas, i.e. the "Serbian Krajina" discontinued and their resumption announced in seven days. The secrecy of the talks is well illustrated by the fact that some Croatian newspapers couldn't even find out who Dusan Rakic, head of the Serbian delegation was, only to identify him subsequently as a former(?) rear admiral of the YPA (Yugoslav Peoples' Army) and the present Minister of Defence of the Knin "state". The first press release disclosed only what was already known to be the main subject: the ceasefire and the fact that the negotiations were "hard" as none of the sides had deviated from its starting positions. And they are well known: Croatia wants to reinstate its jurisdiction over the UNPA's and the Krajina people persistently disagree with that and demand to be granted the status of a neighbouring state. In any case, didn't Mile Martic make his coming to Zagreb conditional on the presence of Croatian President Tudjman?

But, after many talks, with both the representatives of the authorities and the HDZ (Croat Democratic Union), as well as the opposition, and with the participants in the negotiations themselves, it is still possible to reconstruct what was actually "on the table" and what the basic idea of the Russian - American proposal was, as it should not be forgotten that representatives of the International Conference on Former Yugoslavia, Ambassadors Geert Ahrens and Kai Eide sat at the head, while the real moderators were actually Vitali Churkin and Peter Galbraith. Slavko Degoricija, who had already taken part in many rounds of negotiations with the Serbian side, stated for the "Vijesnik" that the talks were conducted in a very positive and tolerant atmosphere, primarily regarding the ceasefire and military maps. Then he explained more precisely that these were maps with the drawn in battlefields and that the intention was to specify the manner of separating the confronting forces on the basis of these maps.

It is necessary to separate the forces to such a distance - says Degoricija - as to make military operations impossible, meaning that their military actions would not depend on somebody's will or on individual commanders. To put it simply, it would be impossible to use weapons because the other side would be out of range. In addition, the talks concerned the deployment of infantry, also far enough so as to prevent its military operations. Thus, an empty space would be created in which UNPROFOR forces would be stationed with the task of enabling the return of the population to settlements in these zones. This is the first precondition for the second stage of negotiations, namely political talks.

This last Degoricija's sentence hints at the essence of the plan. In other words, a somewhat different model from the one which "worked" in the Croat - Moslem conflict, was applied to Croatia. Namely, as one high official confirmed it is actually the first stage, in which demilitarization of the "border area" would be carried out, like in Sarajevo, or with Moslem and Croat weapons. More specifically, this means that both sides in the conflict will have to pull out their heavy weapons 20 kms back into their rear, which is not always possible either for Krajina or Croatia, and not so simple either. Since, as Rakic also explained, the situation is not the same at all "borders". At some there are large towns or villages, major industrial facilities, mines or oil wells.

Let us take, for instance, Zadar and its hinterland, especially Mt. Velebit and the area around Maslenica. The pulling back of heavy weapons and infantry would literally drive them into the sea. The same is true of Karlovac, where the "border" is in the town itself. Or, Krajina can hardly agree to leave those areas where it is now exploiting oil wells without hindrance. That is, in fact, the essential reason for the time-out which will be used to allow all the three sides in the negotiations to arrive at a compromise arrangement.

We must immediately ask: why is fighting still going on when negotiations are in course? We could deduce something from the words of Degoricija who said that provocations on the part of some Serbian commanders were in question. But, according to the tone and manner in which President Tudjman spoke upon his return from America, it seems that the Croatian side is not innocent either. "It is easy to be belligerent. When I set out for the USA we had eleven dead. We will not toy with human lives because of someone's foolishness. Politics calls for reason, not only heart. We talk with our opponents because we have to find a way out of the conflict, and that is not our weakness, but our strength, that is a consequence of general international circumstances. We shall talk as it takes and as long as we can, but we will not give up the last resort if the talks fail. But, then we must have the support of international factors".

This first part refers to the secrecy concerning the conflicts in the Lika theatre of war and directly confirms that they were severe and, according to some information published even in the Croatian press, the number of casualties was even higher. But, at the same time, calculations to the effect that in that way Croatia wished to test its strength, are being denied. Tudjman's angry tone and it is well known he doen't know how to disguise his moods, is proof that the arbitrariness of some Croatian local commanders was in question.

The second part directly refers to the mood and behaviour of a part of the not so insignificant Croatian public with regard to the arrival of "war criminals and Chetniks" to Zagreb, where they paraded in military uniforms. "We have had enough humiliation", "To jail with the gang from Knin", " There can be no talking with or forgiveness for the butchers" - are just some of the slogans carried by demonstrators (several hundred of them) in the Square of the French Republic on the day the citizens of Knin came to Zagreb. The protest was staged by a group of citizens - the "Libertas" - and was led by Dr.Zvonimir Separovic, a controversial figure of Croatian political life, even Tudjman's Foreign Minister for a time. He says that the negotiations in the Russian Embassy were "political mire and mud" and that that was "very dangerous for Croatia", that "Russia was interfering in Croatia's internal affairs".

We are not against peace, nor are we for peace at any cost, we are not for Russian diktat - exclaimed Separovic, who took the "note of protest" to the Russian Embassy and on Wednesday, when the session of the Assembly opened he organized demonstrations on Radic's Square and asked to be received by Stipe Mesic.

However, although it is common knowledge that Separovic now, like in his entire political - scientific career cared only for publicity, many wondered what Bozo Kovacevic, Secretary General of the largest opposition party HSLS was doing there and why did he speak. This is confusing, because the Liberals were of the opinion that there was nothing to discuss with Belgrade about Krajina, because that was Croatia's internal affair.

Kovacevic's behaviour caused even more confusion after he replied to why he had done it : "Serbia must first recognize Croatia in its bordrs and only then will we negotiate". He derives his thesis from the notorious fact that Martic is only Milosevic's commisary for Krajina, but is it not illogical that internal political issues should be solved in Belgrade, and do not the people who have exposed themselves in this action, and bitterness should be understood, know what the alternative is. There is only one: war. Some do not even try to hide that, because they assess that both the Russians and the Serbs are weak. And the magnitude of this confusion is best testified to by the fact that even Drazen Budisa did not know what his secretary was up to, after which the statement of the Liberals was published in the papers with Kovacevic's theses.

The leadership of the Serbian People's Party is also dissatisfied with the negotiations and their President Milan Djukic doesn't accept the official term "political representatives of the Serbs" for "what about the Serbs living in the free part of Croatia"? According to him, the point of departure should have, like in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, been a political solution or at least negotiations on military issues should have been conducted in parallel, with the participation of his Party also. He continues to insist on the thesis that the Serbs are not a national minority and that they will never accept to be one, and he sees the solution in some form of political autonomy, and also in changes of the present Croatian legislation which will guarantee full national rights also to the Serbs outside the districts of Knin and Glina.

All this is happening in a rather heated atmosphere which can be felt in the Assembly too, where many journalists are trying to find out what will happen to Josip Manolic, who recently, for the first time, openly attacked Tudjman, who then called him a would-be politician; about the destiny of Gojko Susak whose recall Manolic requested and Tudjman answered that he enjoyed his full support; whether Tudjman would, after all decide to replace Stipe Mesic; what is the destiny of the present government whose Prime Minister Nikica Valentic had already allegedly handed in his resignation, and then revoked it at Tudjman's request.

If we were to describe the situation in Croatia in only one sentence, it would read: confusion and apathy amongst the people, and the continuation of political conflicts within HDZ which is being severely attacked by the opposition, which is equally divided and at loggerheads. To paraphrase that so wise sentence from the movie "When You Hear the Bells": "Three Gods are too many for such a little land", we could say: Too much peace for such little time.

GOJKO MARINKOVIC