A LOVE OF CONVENIENCE

AIM, SARAJEVO, MARCH 21, 1994

It was a spectacle in the classical American style. The audience was representative, the signatories of the agreement obedient, and the world public probably satisfied. However, after the initial euphoria which, basically President Clinton needed most, numerous quandaries are rapidly cropping up.

We should do away with a major error at the very beginning: instead of commending America and international diplomacy for the efforts they exerted so as to make the warring sides sign another in the series of "historic agreements", they should be exposed to condemnation. For, it was proved in the most plastic way that "Uncle Sam" could have been so energetic already a year ago when conflicts between the Moslems and the Croats were not even in sight, not to mention what could have been done at the time before the dismemberment of Yugoslavia started and, while it was headed by Prime Minister Ante Markovic. But, it's no good crying over spilt milk.

First of all we must note that only the easier part of the job has been done. What follows is a debate in the Croatian Assembly and the Bosnian Assembly, where also there will be no major resistance given the almost one-party domination of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Party of Democratic Action (SDA). Problems will arise when they try to explain to the people how, overnight, the greatest of enemies became close allies and what is the crown reason for which they should, at a possible referendum tomorrow vote for a confederation of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is glaringly evident that the Bosnian media have still not released the official document signed in Washington, so that the public here is informed only from the sparse hints of its politicians. Public opinion polls show that the people are interested in peace, but that they do not, in any case, believe in the offered love of convenience. The wounds from the recent conflicts have not yet healed and cannot be forgotten all that easily.

No one harbours any illusions any longer that primarily Tudjman, and Izetbegovic also, consented to the agreement because of the growing awareness that they had to change their policies. They were simply forced to do that: they were driven up to the wall when America publicly explained the rules of the game and what was expected of them. Warren Christopher's announcement that the new confederation of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina should be associated with the European Union is one of those baits which the political leaders could not resist. But, one should be cautious and at least leave room for doubt that the creation of the mentioned confederation might perhaps not take place at all. This might have been a cheap trick so as to deprive the greatest extremists on both sides of their arguments.

According to this variant , it would mean that the borders of B&H would remain unchanged, the status of the Serbian Krajina in Croatia frozen with small chances of it's escaping the costitutional framework of Croatia, while the Serbs in Bosnia would face a fait accompli: either join the federation of the Bosnian Croats and Moslems or be exposed to even stronger NATO pressure without the possibility of repenting.

But if things take another course and the actual creation of new states in allowed, namely a confederation of Croatia and Bosnia but also of Serbia with the Republic of Srpska, that will mean definitive confirmation that the borders of the new world order and interest spheres really pass through the middle of Bosnia. Symbolically speaking: the East would be on one side of the Miljacka river and the West on the other.

The ball of fickle diplomacy, when Bosnia is in question, has now been thrown into the Serbian field. Karadzic, it seems, feels that this is an exceptional opportunity to put a crown on what he has waged war for for two years, at least judged by his readiness to give back some 15% of the conquered territory. This tellingly demonstrates why the Serbs conquered much of what in no case belongs to them - simply, they waited for this moment to be able to haggle generously about land they actually do not need.

In any case, whether we like it or not, there can be no overall solution without the Serbian side. It would be, therefore, prudent to wait for the resumption of the negotiations on Bosnia and only then pronounce judgements on the true viability of the just signed Croat - Moslem agreement.

For, it is known that a love of convenience, in principle, rarely withstands the test of time.

The events ahead will prove that most eloquently.

GORAN TODOROVIC