HAVE ALL THE RISKS BEEN AVOIDED?

AIM, Skopje, March 22, 1994

It would be unrealistic to believe that all the risks have been avoided in Macedonia, especially when it is a known fact that nationalist cards are still on the table. This is the year in which parliamentary elections are to be held and the year of the extraordinary census, so it is realistic to expect that national sentiments will be exploited and even abused. In spite of certain indications, it is not very likely that anyone will boycott the census, particularly if it is borne in mind that it will be financed by international institutions and that foreign factors have an interest in it . The new electoral law, which has still not been passed in Parliament, envisages 140 people's deputies, i.e., 20 more than the present number. Civil concepts still do not have a realistic chance in Macedonia, regardless of the fact that only such options can secure a future to multi-national, multi- cultural and multi-confessional Macedonia.

Macedonia has, at least up until now, demonstrated that with some tolerance in these difficult times it is possible to avoid the worst option - war - and come to specific solutions which naturally cannot satisfy everyone, but which actually do give hope that problems will be gradually addressed in a suitable manner. However, it would be unrealistic to believe that all the risks have been avoided, particularly when it is a notorious fact that nationalistic options are still at play and that Macedonia is most vulnerable precisely in the domain of inter-ethnic relations. When the "troublesome" region of the Southern Balkans is added to this,meaning in the first place the as yet unresolved Kosovo problem, the fear of the citizens of Macedonia that all risks have still not been avoided is quite understandable. This year, 1994 is the year in which the extraordinary census and parliamentary elections are to take place.

The census will finally prove who and in what number is living in Macedonia, while the forthcoming elections will show how much Macedonia has learned from the last elections, when we would write off many things that happened then to disorientation and to an eruption of surpressed passions.

As far as the census is concerned, it is imperative and relevant to all sides. If for no other reason then in order to put a stop to various manipulations with the number of inhabitants of various nationalities living in Macedonia. In spite of some indications that certain parties will boycott the census (the Communist Party of Macedonia appealed to Macedonians to boycott the census), it is hardly likely tht anyone will make the "mistake" of boycotting the census which is to be financed by international institutions and in respect to which the European Community has shown a particular interest. The worse that can happen in regard to the census, is its postponement until the end of the year or the beginning of next year instead of holding it April (as was planned). And that from the simple reason that all preparations have still not been completed, wherein it is not unimportant to note that there is a standstill in the issuing of citizenship certificates (particularly in the communes mostly inhabited by non-Macedonians). The elections, as anywhere else in the Balkans, are a time of overemphasized national passions which can be transformed into something all together different, especially when the multi-national character of Macedonia and the structure of its political protagonists, that are to main part divided along national lines, are borne in mind.

It is not very probable that attempts will not be made this year too to manipulate with, and even abuse national sentiments. The new electoral law, which still has not been passed in Parliament, stipulates the election of 140 republican parliamentarians ( 20 more than at present), whereby 120 deputies are to be elected according to the plurality formula and 20 to the proportional system. This was done - as the proposers of the law explained - in order to enable smaller national entities to have their representatives in the republican Parliament.

It would be real madness if after all that has happened, the nationalistic option became dominant, as was the case in the last elections. No doubt in the forthcoming elections, the national factor will be decisive in the casting of votes, and the main battle will be fought between the so called Macedonian and Albanian national parties.

Civil concepts in this young state can still not count on any large-scale support, from the simple reason that these concepts are covered up by the national romanticism that has overswep one and all. The cracks that have appeared in the largest party of Albanians in Macedonia, the PDP, can have negative implications on the very elections. On the one hand, there is a realistic possibility that Albanian requests will be radicalized, and on the other, that immediate counter effects - highetened radicalism - will prevail on the part of the so called hard-core Macedonian parties. The PDP is presently functioning as two parties holding the same name, and each believes it is the legitimate representative of the previous Party as well as of the interests of the majority of Albanians in Macedonia. While the leaders of these two factions are convincing themselves and the Albanian populatiron who is who, Macedonian radical parties (such as the VMRO-DPMNE and a few others with the same prefix in their names) are using the split in the party of Albanians and the involvement of some political circles from Albanian in the activities of the PDP to prove the "destructiveness" of Albanian parties in Macedonia.

The arms scandal, which is still not over ( a few days ago a number of Albanians from Tetovo have been arrested) has enhanced even more and is enhancing inter-ethnic tensions. While Albanian parties consider this affair to be " a set up in order the discredit the Albanians", Macedonian nationalist circles are using it to prove that "it is impossible to live with the Albanians in the same state." Undoubtedly the arms affairs will be exploited to the utmost during the elections and the PDP (regardless of how the two current factions, lead by Arben Dzaferi and Xheladin Murati respectively, will be named) will continue to insist on the tabled Albanian requests. Multi-nationalism and multi-culturalism are still not functioning in Macedonia, and this is causing fear and concern in the election year among the majority of the citizens of this state. Different nationalities live parallel lives in Macedonia and an extremely high price can be payed for that. All efforts on all parts proceed from the stand: "It is our affair." Most people are afraid this parallelism will reach absurd proportions, and then it will be difficult to create a normal society.

Unfortunately, things are still completely the wrong side up, and the only possible option for the survival of Macedonia - a civil one - does not as yet have a chance of becoming a dominant option. In multi-national, multi-cultural and multi-confessional Macedonia, precisely this option could make possible the assertion of individuality in all its strength and value. And what is of vital importance, only in a civil environment would it be possible to achieve what all the new states hold particularly important today - the loyalty of their citizens. The creators of national states can hardly count upon something like that, especially in a multi-national state like Macedonia.

KIM MEHMETI