THE REAL MEANING OF A SIGNATURE

Serb reactions on proposed Bosnian-Croat federation in Bosnia and Herzegovina

By Stevan Niksic

Serbs are still cautious as far as the Framework agreement between Bosnians and Croats on Federation is concerned. After first round of talks with special US envoy for Bosnia and Herzegovina Charles Redman, this week in Belgrade (Tuesday, 8 March), Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic as well as Bosnian Serb representatives carefuly avoided to answer the main question: are they going to sign proposed agreement and join the Federation, or not?

"Agreement between Moslems and Croats is their purely

internal question and there is no reason for anyone to deny

it as long as it doesn't concern Serb interests and as long

as it's directed toward peace", said Serbian president

Milosevic. He also stressed that this Agreement couldn't

produce any political obligations for the Serb side, since

Serb side didn't take part in its formulation. "Since the

final shape of this Agreement is still not reached, but only

announced, it's impossible to express ones final and

conclusive attitude toward this document", added Milosevic.

Yet, two high Bosnian Serb officials who met Redman,

vice-president of self-proclaimed Serb Republic Nikola

Koljevic as well as foreign minister Aleksa Buha described

latest American diplomatic initiative as "a positive step"

towards peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They certainly

didn't close the door for further talks on this issue, but

on the same time they also used this opportunity to name the

specific "price" for possible Serb signature on the

document. This "price" consists of two elements: a complete

lifting of the international sanctions against Serbia and

Montenegro, as well as sovereign right of Bosnian Serbs

(identical to those ones of Bosnians and Croats) to define

its future political status and to decide on future likely

confederation with Serbia and Montenegro.

The point, however, is that both Koljevic and Buha

are known to be rather "moderate ones" among Bosnian Serb

leaders. A day before Redman's visit to Belgrade Radovan

Karadzic himself said (in an interview for German weekly

"Der Spiegel") that "only politically illiterate person

could expect that Bosnian Serbs could accept the confederal

model with Moslems and Croats". Karadzic added: "The only

options for us are either 'independent Serb state in Bosnia

and Herzegovina', or an union with other Serbs". This

statement of Karadzic was certainly aimed to cool down

militant Serb radicals on Pale, such as general Ratko

Mladic, president of Bosnian Serb parliament Momcilo

Krajisnik as well as influential vice-president of "Serb

Republic" Mrs Biljana Plavsic.

Still, it seems that the final decision will not be

formulated on Pale itself, or by Bosnian Serbs themselves,

since it could concern the future of "all Serb states" in

the region of former Yugoslavia, particularly the future of

self-proclaimed "Serb Republic of Krajina" in Croatia now

under UN protection (UNPA zones). Namely, Serbs are

completely aware that the "price" for Croat signature on

proposed Agreement, among other things, was a specific

promise for support in regaining "the Croat sovereignty on

all its occupied territories" obtained in Washington. So, if

Serbs reject to sign proposed agreement on Bosnia and

Herzegovina they could lose not only some territories in

Bosnia but territories now under Serb control in Croatia as

well. But, if they win "suitable conditions" for a signature

on the Agreement concerning Bosnia, they still hope the

final decision on Krajina could be at least postponed.

Specifically asked for one of this "suitable

conditions" for a Serb signature on the Agreement, one which

concerns possible confederal union of Bosnian Serbs with

Serbia itself, at the press conference in Belgrade Charles

Redman avoided to answer. "I don't want to foresee a

solution which is up to three sides in Bosnia to decide", he

said. But, Redman also stressed that regardlessly of the

Bosnian Serb possible interests to join the proposed

federation "the territorial questions blocking Geneva peace

process for several months already comes first".

Redman said that necessary precondition for any

further talks with Serbs would be significant territorial

concessions.

In fact, Belgrade has already started some sort of

preparations for the annexation of Serb controlled

territories in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as those ones

in Croatia. For instance, National Bank of Yugoslavia

(Serbia and Montenegro) decided last week to include self-

proclaimed "Serb Republic" in Bosnia and Herzegovina in its

monetary system; the tracks loaded with money printed in

Belgrade ("new dinars") crossed river Drina and members of

Bosnian Serb armed forces as well as pensioners in Serb

controlled territories have already received its first

salaries and pensions (equivalent of 20-50 German Marks) in

this notes. Still, Governor of National Bank in Belgrade,

Dragoslav Avramovic, said "its only a technical assistance"

and he denied any "political substance" of this operation.

Different party leaders in Serbia and Montenegro have

already started - although only indirectly - a debate on a

possible form of future union. So, president of Montenegro

and also president of a ruling party (Democratic party of

Socialists) in Montenegro said this week at his party's

congress: "Should tomorow Herzegovina express its whish to

unite with us in Montenegro, we would certainly very much

welcome it".

The likely meaning of this words is that Mr Bulatovic

would prefer the annexation of Serb controlled territories

in Herzegovina to Montenegro (such as annexation of the rest

of Serb controlled territories in Bosnia to Serbia) than

Karadzic's "Serb Republic" to join a ramp Yugoslavia (Serbia

and Montenegro) as one more "sovereign" member state. But,

this very likely a highly sensitive issue in Montenegro

could also have something to do with some sort of

territorial dispute between Karadzic's "Serb Republic" and

Montenegro itself concerning the access to the Adriatic Sea

and use port in Herzeg-Novi on the border between Montenegro

and Croatia.

This words of Bulatovic suddenly provoked a bitter

reaction of Novak Kilibarda, president of pro-Serb and pro-

Milosevic "People's party" in Montenegro. He accused

Bulatovic of "undermining the significance" of Karadzic's

"Serb Republic" as "already internationally accepted state

and recognized negotiating partner on many diplomatic

conferences". In other words, it's already clear that Serb

themselves are already divided and would be even more so on

the issue of the form of future union, should Bosnian Serbs

get a chance to unite with Serbia and Montenegro. In that

case, Slobodan Milosevic himself would certainly try as much

as possible to keep Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic on

a distance and to keep Karadzic's likely political ambitions

under control.

If Bosnian Serbs achieve its military and political

goals, i.e. if they break Bosnia and Herzegovina into three

(or even two) pieces and unite Serb controlled territories

with Serbia and Montenegro, Karadzic will be certainly

celebrated as "a winner" and some sort of "national hero".

In that case, he could also become too dangerous for Slobodan

Milosevic himself, challenging his present reputation as

undisputed leader of all Serbs...