ELECTIONS TO ONE'S OWN DISADVANTAGE

AIM, Belgrade, Dec. 20, 1993. According to the first results of the third in a row elections for the Serbian Parliament, it is clear that the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) will win. Most probably the preelection objective of the Socialist - to have the majority in the Parliament - will not be achieved aftr all, but the number of their deputies will exceed all expectations and participation of the SPS in the previous session of the Parliament. Milossevicc's party has won the elections simultaneously with exceeding the notorious 1923 inflation in Germany. Threatening famine, closed borders, insultingly low wages and pensions, transformation of the entire Serbia into a flee market, dreadful transportation and forgotten purpose of the existence of gas stations, turned out to be insufficient to affect the disposition of the voters who decided to vote for the continuity of the rule of those whose balance sheet contains everything listed. The economic logic is defeated, although the economic laws severely warn the non-believers that it can always be worse. After all, the voters - TV spectators - were told that all the troubles of Serbia are the results of an anti-Serbian artifice of the whole world. With the echo of such arguments in their ears, the citizens recognized in the opposition leaders the danger of spreading of the negative influence of the West.

To all those who still refuse to blame the wide world for all their troubles, but are aware of their empty stomachs and feel the fear of the armed football fans, a most patriotic option was offered - union of all Serbian countries, without a single attempt to question the price that must be paid for such an idea. Almost all the political parties accepted the challenge to compete in Serbian patriotism thrown in their face, planning the future on the other side of the Drina. The only one who did not participate in the competition was the one who made the challenge - the SPS with the election slogan which read only FOR SERBIA, creating the illusion that all the other parties are war-mongers, drawing all those who are confused and frightened. The role of a scarecrow was not initially intended for the Party of Serbian Unity, it seemed at first that it could bring ten certain votes of support to the Government whenever it might need them. But, it turned out that popular singers attract spectators, but not voters, so that the initial role was rejected, and a completely different role of this party imposed itself on it - the role of a party which promises to tear down walls. Instead of the role of the pointer on a balance in measuring forces in the Parliament, this party played the role of the bait drawing votes into the net of the SPS. In spite of a comparative great success of the Socialists, they will not be able to form a stable Government, not even by borrowing several deputy votes from the "patriotic" parties. United opposition could achieve this, but the question arises why enter into a subsequent coallition instead of having formed a coallition before the elections, when this could have enabled them to have at least some fifteen seats above the total of the seats each party won individually. Such an increase in the number of seats would have been the result of the fact that in such a case they would have started from the minimum of five per cent necessary to start competition only once and not five times - for each party separately. The argument that a coallition of, say DEPOS and the Radicals, is unnatural to such an extent that it was impossible for them to unite before the elections is elligible for any union after the elections, too.

In order to take power over from the SPS, it will have to be overthrown first. Since all the pillars of power are engaged in its preservation, this is an extremely difficult task, and an objective in itself. Only after removing the party which is used to having absolute power is it possible to create an environment suitable for democratic competition of programs. Instead of defining the objective of its participation in the elections along these lines and assembling a broad coallition based on it, the opposition entered a series of individual struggles with the party- Goliath, and, of course, lost. It is quite possible that the opposition parties, in spite of the ideological and personal controversies and prejudices, might try to form a coallition which could have the majority and form a Government. True power, however, will remain untouched in all the institutions directly or indirectly controlled by the President of Serbia. With a gossamer majority and strained relations among the parties within, such a Government could hardly do anything, but would certainly be forced to take a part of the responsibility for the economic and the political catastrophe of the country.

Difficulties in formation of a Government could force the most powerful party to offer formation of a national salvation Government. Although there are implications that some of the parties look with benevolence upon this idea, there are absolutely no guarantees that the Socialists would not keep primacy in the key ministries, relieving themself of a part of the responsibility. The citizens of Serbia did not notice that there is a link between the price of milk, the shortage of bread and the Government. Hence they voted to their own disadvantage. The opposition parties anticipate similar behavior: they are not getting ready to use their overall superiority in the number of deputies and to leave those who have ruled soo far to continue doing it with a minority Government.This is the way to establish efficient control of the ruling SPS without sharing its responsibilty. After the announcement of the final results, the parties will know the scope of the burden they will be entering negotiations with, and soon they will know also what type of Government is possible. Hyperinflation will continue its turbulent rise which will be interrupted only with the disappearance of money in Serbia or a radical turn towards the relations with the world community, that is towards the most prominent problems Serbia and the Serbs are faced with. It is difficult to believe that there is such a Government which would be able to find a way out of the deadend street and remain unblemished. And whether it will be a SPS government, a coallition or a government of national salvation remains to be seen very soon.

Srdjan Bogosavljevicc