THE ELECTION SHOCK IN KRAJINA

Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in the Republic of Serbian Krajina

The triumph of Milan Babicc, in spite of the disapproval of Slobodan Milossevicc, is considered to be the first ever recorded election defeat of the Socialist Party of Serbia. The leaders of the opposition in Serbia are satisfied with the results of the elections in Krajina. It is expected that the relations between Serbia and Croatia will become increasingly strained.

AIM, Belgrade, December 14. Unofficial results of the first multi-party elections of December 12 in the Republic of Serbian Krajina (RSK) were a complete surprise. In the presidential elections in this self-proclaimed state, Dr. Milan Babicc, the Mayor of Knin, having won more than a hundred thousand votes, took the lead well ahead of Milan Marticc, the Minister of the Internal Affairs of the Republic of Serbian Krajina, who got the trust of only half as many voters, although he was abundantly favoured by the media and had financial support of the Serbian regime. Babicc has therefore become the first Serbian politician, who was once, on request of Slobodan Milossevicc, removed from the scene of high politics (as the former President of the RSK he opposed signing of the Vance Plan), and now, against Milossevicc's will, he is triumphantly returning to the political scene. The other Presidential candidates, with the exception of Rade Leskovac, the leader of the Serbian Radical Party in the Krajina, won only symbolic support of the voters. Similar is the case with the election of deputies for the Parliament of the RSK. The Serbian Democratic Party of Milan Babicc, according to the results processed so far, has won 30 places in the Parliament, followed by the Radicals and the Serbian Democratic Party of "the Serbian Lands" (led by the now ex-President of the RSK, Goran Hadzzicc) with 16 deputies each. The Serbian Party of Socialists, established just before the elections by the Socialist Party of Serbia, won 4 mandates, and the other parties, more precisely, fractions of the Serbian Democratic Party, scored certain results only in the places of origin of their leaders. Although the election headquarters of Milan Marticc filed a complaint questioning the regularity of the elections in Krnjak, Vrginmost, Knin and some other places, and the Republican Election Commission concluded in the official minutes that the ballots had appeared in Knin two days before they should have, it cannot be expected that the validity of the results will be seriously questioned. At least not until the completion of the parliamentary elections in Serbia.

THE FIRST DEFEAT

The manner in which the state Television of Serbia presented the results of the elections in Krajina to the Serbian public indicates that these results are interpreted as the first ever recorded election defeat of the ruling party in Serbia. While reports from the voting posts ranked high in the news on the day of the elections and were given considerable time, with the emphasis on the fact that about 80% of the voters voted (250 thousand from the total of 320 thousand of the registered voters), the first unofficial results the following day were aired only after 29 minutes of the central news program on state TV. The report began with the news about Croatian shelling of Benkovac, stating that three persons were killed - two women and a child, and giving a detailed description of the artillery arms which were used in the attack. Only after that, news about the elections got their turn. It was shyly admitted that Babicc and his party had taken the lead, but it was stressed that those were only the first unofficial results, that nothing was final yet. Altogether, the report lasted for about 5 minutes - with no statement of the politicians, and no comments. The effort of the Socialist Party of Serbia to push the elections in Krajina to the margins of the events so as to prevent any impact they might have on the forthcoming elections in Serbia, was best confirmed by its spokesman, Ivica Dachicc who said that the decision was the internal affair of the people living there, and that they have "articulated the interests of the Republic of Serbian Krajina on the eve of peace negotiations". Dachicc commented on the failure of the strongly supported favourite of his own party, Milan Marticc, by saying that he had been "the candidate of a group of labourers, combatants and intellectuals", and nothing more. The leaders of the opposition, however, did not hide their satisfaction with the almost certain triumph of Milan Babicc, evaluating that it will certainly be to their advantage in the finals of the election race in Serbia. The President of the Democratic Party of Serbia, Vojislav Kosstunica, was the first to congratulate Babicc, and DEPOS commented that "the people from Krajina showed that they did not use the head from no. 10, Takovska street (the headquarters of the state Radio-Television Serbia) nor the one from no. 33, Tolstojeva street (the villa of the President of Serbia)".

EXPECTATIONS

And finally, what can be expected after the results of the elections in Krajina? Milan Babicc is well-known as a hard-core politician. Since the very creation of Krajina, and he was among its creators, he was in favour of the independence of this territory and its unification with Serbia. He proved how uncomprimising he is in his effort to reach this goal by forthrightly opposing Slobodan Milossevicc on the occasion of signing of the Vance Plan which was actually the agreement on the withdrawal of the former Yugoslav People's Army and the arrival of the UN peace-keeping forces. Babicc assessed at the time that Belgrade had there and then given up the concept of a "truncated Yugoslavia" (consisting of Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina), and that bargaining about the destiny of Krajina at a negotiations table depending on the international situation was almost certain. Although he had paid for his "stubborness" by being removed from the office of the President of this self-proclaimed state, he never changed his opinion. When in March 1993, Belgrade was considering the possibility of removing the incompetent and corrupt team of the ex-President of the RSK, Goran Hadzzicc, he refused to apologize to Milossevicc. Babicc probably owes his success in the elections to this persistence. Speculations that the regime in Serbia will give up Krajina for the sake of legalizing dismemberment of Bosnia in cooperation with Croatia and lifting of the sanctions, could not remain without any impact on the voters in Krajina. It seems that even the visits of high officials of the ruling party from Serbia could not appease these fears. Nevertheless, Babicc's true intentions will become clear only after the elections in Serbia, when it will become known who will he will choose to form the Government, as well as whether he will thank the Minister of Internal Affairs, Milan Marticc, for his services, who is believed to be a specific controller of the affairs in Krajina from Belgrade. In any case, a much more independent policy of Knin can be expected, as well as increasingly strained relations with Zagreb, especially rigidity in negotiations. Croatian media have already commented on the elections in Krajina as subversive to the process of negotiations, but there are also assessments that Slobodan Milossevicc has put himself in the position to be politically closer to Dr. Tudjman than to Milan Babicc, for the sake of lifting of the sanctions.

PHILIP SCHWARM