Elections - Votes for Salvation

Whenever they carry things too far, Macedonian parties come up with the idea of holding extraordinary parliamentary elections. If the notion seems to be unfeasible at the moment, at least it sounds pretty good

AIM Skopje, November 3, 2001

Sticking to its tradition of epoch-making discoveries, a few days ago Skopje daily Dnevnik ran a new version of an old scenario according to which the Sobranje speaker Stojan Andov is to dissolve the parliament at the end of the month thus paving the way for the issuing of writs for extraordinary parliamentary elections to be held on January 27 of next year. In the meantime, Ljubco Georgievski's VMRO-DPMNE. as the most influential parliamentary party, could continue simulating interest for the adoption of constitutional changes resulting from the Ohrid Agreement of the four major Macedonian political parties. The West regards the agreement as a peace formula for pulling Macedonia out of the present crisis, while the Macedonian political block views it merely as - a set of concessions Macedonians are to give to ethnic Albanians.

When they have had their fill of discussing the proposed constitutional changes, on the suggestion of the "first among equals", the MPs would dissolve themselves on November 27, just in time for the prescribed two-months time-limit for the pre-election campaign to be honored, and so on and so forth... The parliamentary session on constitutional changes started out in an atmosphere of heightened tensions with the ethnic Albanian Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP) making it clear that it has no intention of backing a constitutional preamble which would define Macedonia as the state of the Macedonian and six other nations living within its boundaries. Such a deal, a serious blow to the original agreement - it is said – was struck with the EU High Representative Javier Solana during his visit to Skopje last week. The Party for Democratic Prosperity believes it is wiser to stick to the Ohrid Agreement which defines Macedonia as a civic society - without any mention of Macedonians or anyone else. Once we start tinkering with the agreement, it will amount to opening Pandora's box of evils, warns PDP. On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) which holds more seats in the parliament has stated its unwavering support for the said solution, thus meriting praise from Prime Minister Georgievski and his pals.

Speaker Andov whose talent of an outdoor green-market huckster is not to be disputed, immediately came up with an idea: there is to be no voting unless two thirds of ethnic Albanian MPs back the proposed changes. "Just so they do not go around later on complaining to the international community they have been outvoted, their rights trampled upon and so on," said Andov, leaving the larger public in the dark as to the exact reference point of his lifesaving formula as far as known laws are concerned. The whole plot - according to the local gossip - has long since been outlined. Since PDP is certain not to consent to the latest proposal of the constitutional preamble, there will be no voting. Meaning Andov will be given the needed excuse for dissolving the parliament!... Meaning that someone else - the next convocation of the parliament, for example - get to rack their brains over preambles, amendments, constitutional changes and the enactment of the Ohrid Agreement...

The agreement reached on that (un)fortunate May 13 in Ohrid between the leaders of virtually all parliamentary parties belonging to the so called "coalition of national unity" did, in fact, stipulate for extraordinary parliamentary elections to be held on January 27 of next year. At the time, the set date and the whole notion itself seemed if not realistic, then certainly reassuring, at the least. Viewed from this particular point in time, things seem to be quite different. The government has no control over trouble regions within its own territory and, as the representatives of the international community keep pointing out, may regain it only if the Ohrid Agreement is endorsed by the parliament and atop of that implemented!? If not, there will be no regular pre-election campaign to speak off... Even if the elections were to take place, a number of political parties whose electorate has either emigrated or been displaced could rightfully claim that their poor electoral results were a result of all this. Not less significantly, the pre-election campaign would take place in a rather high-strung atmosphere with an unpredictable outcome. Arguments such as this abound.

As for the major political parties, three of four would have nothing against the holding of elections. At least that is what their medium ranked officials claim, meaning that the final decisions will be made only after some figuring out has been done. We are speaking here of the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) which has been hoping for new elections since its crushing electoral defeat in 1998, the Democratic Party of Albanians which has managed to maintain a rather good rating and the Party for Democratic Prosperity still in pains over its true identity. On the other hand, VMRO-DPMNE - as the main protagonist of the Macedonian political scene and its number one sinner in past years - would rather not go to the polls, if possible. After all, not even at the time the party entered into the present "marriage of convenience" did its boss Georgievski go out of his way to consent to any extraordinary weighing out of political muscle. When all the fishy privatization deals, financial scandals involving over DM 10 million and "war merits" of the "most Macedonian" of all Macedonian parties are laid on the table, the party can hardly hope for any good coming its way from the ballot boxes. Still, all of these things are not a strong enough argument for not dissolving the parliament.

Skopje weekly Aktuel recently presented its readers with two scenarios. One optimistic and one pitch-dark. According to the first, prior to the dissolving of Sobranje, VMRO-DPMNE would, with the helping hand of speaker Stojan Andov (a liberal so dear to the heart of VMRO and with so many merits for the ruling party that a honorary membership in prime minister's party would be his just due) somehow manage to push through the controversial constitutional amendments; this PR move would enable VMRO-DPMNE to lay the blame for the ratification of the Ohrid Agreement and the amnesty of former ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army members on the rival SDSM. Naturally, VMRO-DPMNE would not be what it is if not for its storm troopers and a scenario of the future sending shudders of fear through everyone's veins. According to the gloomier of the two scenarios, following the dissolution of Sobranje, the overall situation would rapidly deteriorate (a feat not hard to achieve). And, when a country is at war, who is to think of elections?!

Even before the said scenarios were made public, in an interview given to the press, Prime Minister Georgievski stated he was not considering extraordinary elections at the time and then, rather prophetically, informed the public that in his view the present government would not last until the next elections. The Prime Minister did not elaborate on the grounds for his assertion. Analysts believe anything is possible, even a situation in which Georgievski is to get rid of his present coalition partners so as to get the feel of running the country on his own, without the tiresome parliament on his shoulders. Of course, the support of minor "free-lance" parties such as the one headed by Vasil Tupurkovski would be welcome as always.

But, as in all calculations concerning Macedonia, a certain someone "overlooking things from above" is to be taken into account. The international community, of course. No one in Brussels or Washington would be happy with the premature "breaking up of the party".

As in numerous previous instances, local politicians would be wrong if they relied on their supervisors being overly engaged with Afghanistan. As they have been told so many times before: Afghanistan is Afghanistan, Macedonia an altogether different matter - and agreements must be honored!

ZELJKO BAJIC

(AIM)