A Diplomatic Excursion to the East

In search of partners and allies, Macedonia is attempting to establish dialog with those whom until recently it considered diplomatic outsiders

AIM Skopje, October 30, 2001

On his way to Moscow Macedonian President Boris Trajkovski on Oct. 28 paid a short visit to Crimea. In sunny Yalta he met with his Ukrainian counterpart, Leonid Kuchma. As was expected, their conversation focused on military cooperation, which the West has not been very happy about over the past several months. Namely, during the crisis in Macedonia Ukraine was Macedonia's most trusted ally when it came to military hardware. Since the spring of 2001, Macedonia has purchased four helicopters, four fighter jets, 31 tanks, and other arms and equipment from Ukraine. In addition, Macedonian military personnel were sent to Ukrainian training centers to hone their skills. According to the media, the two presidents agreed to cease military cooperation until the Ohrid peace agreement is implemented. According to diplomatic sources in Skopje, Ukraine officials were told in Brussels last week that Macedonia was purchasing weapons not for its military but for its police, which has raised suspicions that the arms could be used against ethnic Albanian guerrillas. Members of the Macedonian delegation have every reason to be very content with the outcome of their visit: as payment, Ukraine has agreed to accept wine and farm products which Macedonia could not even hope to sell to anyone during the crisis.

The next day Trajkovski reached Moscow where he had an opportunity to meet even with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russians said again that a Balkan conference was necessary to reaffirm the principle of unchangeability of borders, proclaimed by the international community ages ago. What pleased, even delighted, the Macedonian delegation the most, however, was the fact that its hosts called the groups Macedonian security forces have been fighting for months not rebels but "terrorists" -- the same term the Macedonians themselves are using to refer to their enemies of the past seven to eight months. Still, reporters covering the Trajkovski visit said that for the time being Macedonia could not expect any other support from Moscow except diplomatic. Although Russian and Macedonian defense ministers Sergei Ivanov and Vlado Buckovski signed a protocol on military cooperation, well-informed sources believe Moscow has rejected Skopje's pleas for a shipment of interesting military equipment.

There is no doubt that by labeling National Liberation Army fighters "terrorists" throughout the crisis in Macedonia, Moscow was in fact settling its score with the West over Chechnya and other former Soviet republics that might opt for independence. With their eyes fixed on Washington and Brussels, Macedonian officials, however, failed to take seriously what Russian diplomats kept saying at U.N. meetings in New York or at the OSCE in Vienna. Only when the U.S. and the EU got engaged in Afghanistan did Skopje begin to listen more attentively to the voices coming in from Russia.

Once it became obvious that Moscow would become part of the anti-terrorism coalition and that its experiences with Afghanistan would be useful to the West, Skopje decided that it was the right moment to establish dialog with Russian President Putin. Having in mind the all-out struggle against global terrorism was at stake, President Trajkovski chose to speak to his Russian hosts about "brotherhood in arms."

Showing a lack of diplomatic tact, the Macedonian president said his country would like to profit a little from the newly established partnership between Russia and the West. With all due sympathies for the "Macedonian cause," the Russians, however, advised their guest that it would be the best for Macedonia to adopt the Ohrid agreement and use it as a basis for coming out of the crisis.

As was the case with Milosevic's regime, Moscow's readiness to play on the Macedonian card depends on its suits in the Balkans and the rest of the world. While Macedonia was demonstrating its eagerness to join NATO in any, even the most inferior capacity, the Russians warned against haste, and pointed out that by expanding, the West was dangerously approaching the point where it would clash with Russian interests.

If it turns out that President Trajkovski indeed asked Putin for military assistance and was refused, diplomatic sources in Skopje say ties between the two countries are unlikely to improve, which was feared during the crisis. Some analysts believe that in the future the West will not so easily dismiss the Russian stance that Macedonian security forces are fighting terrorists, although it is still not clear what change that could bring. For the time being, Macedonia seems unlikely to either become Russian's priority, or to stop being of any interest to it. Maybe those who believe that nothing will change are quite right. President Trajkovski had an interesting diplomatic excursion, nothing more and nothing less than that.

Zeljko Bajic

(AIM)