A Week of Resounding Silence

After the exchange of harsh words between Macedonian authorities and the representatives of the international community some ten days ago, a settling down of the terrain after the political earthquake is in effect at the moment. Whether because the West is preoccupied with its own troubles over Afghanistan or because it is making use of the "hot-cold" tactics - those steering the Macedonian state ship have been given a respite to think things over. The price of their possible misjudgments may well turn out to be exorbitant

AIM Skopje, October 15, 2001

A veritable diplomatic hurricane swept through Skopje in the first week of October. Since gaining independence ten years ago, Macedonia's shares in the international community have never been so close to the bottom line as at present. The President of the Republic presented Sobranje (Macedonian Parliament) with but a portion of the expected constitutional amendments, thus paving a way for the parliamentary session previously scheduled for October 9 (agenda: the passing of the controversial constitutional amendments) - not to take place at all. Prior to this, temperamental Prime Minister Georgievski managed to put an end to his meeting with President George Bush's envoy to Macedonia James Pardew in record 11 minutes. According to some, by showing the American the door to his cabinet following Pardew's complaints that Macedonian reservists were harassing ethnic Albanian trainees in the training camp of the multiethnic police force. According to others, James Pardew himself cut the meeting short slamming the cabinet door behind him after hearing the subtle comment of the poetic minded Premier that "the USA is the number one terrorist on planet Earth". The determined American presidential envoy had previously caused havoc in the training center upon seeing the circumstances in which the instructional process was being carried out. Just for the record: the sum of $ 1,5 million allotted for setting up and operating the center came from the USA itself. The outcome of the diplomatic row? Ethnic Albanian trainees and all of the 17 American instructors left the training center to return only after assurances and personal guarantees of a Macedonian police General that controversial reservist corps would be dissolved on the spot. Just so as to preserve the tension, Interior Minister Ljube Boskovski once again assumed the role of the "enfant terrible" making it perfectly clear to all concerned that his police forces would return to crisis areas occupied by the NLA in previous months in a matter of minutes. Top government officials were forced to use their diplomatic skills to the full in order to persuade the international community that prank-prone Ljube did not mean all he said in earnest. In harmony with the prevailing atmosphere, Sobranje Speaker Stojan Andov took such a rigid legalistic stand in his negotiations with the EU troika - Geoan, Solana and Patin - that Javier Solana left Skopje in a hurry, without bothering to say his good-byes. And so on and so forth. When the glass finally spilled over, EU Foreign Policy and Security High Commissioner Chris Patin made it known that the donors' conference set for October 15 is being postponed until further notice. What he left unsaid was: "Have it your way and enjoy!"

The joint anti-terrorist campaign against Afghanistan led by the US and the UK has shifted the focus of the international community's interest away from Macedonia. Although the Macedonian government finally proclaimed the long awaited amnesty for members of the self-disbanded NLA forces, apart from a few lower ranking officials of the international community acknowledging the fact, the announcement was met without the usual enthusiastic taps on the back. After all, it was merely the fulfillment of a promise long overdue. So, what was next on the agenda?! If the global community was interested in Macedonia at all at the time, it amounted to the issue of the controversial constitutional amendments being adopted by Sobranje, thus clearing the way for the implementation of President Traikovski's peace agreement. The message was repeated by the EU, dispersing all hope of a possible slackening in the stand taken by the international community. That is how the parting statement of the Chairwomen of the EU parliamentary delegation to southeast Europe Doris Pack, given after her talks with the major local political players, was to be understood.

Alas, the desired act of the Parliament failed to materialize. MPs of the ethnic Albanian Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP) refused to take part in any parliamentary session convened before the President of the Republic presented Sobranje with the last amendment proposed. The PDP leadership openly voiced its suspicions that a parliamentary maneuver was in effect with the purpose of enabling the Macedonian parliamentary block to elude proposed changes to the preamble leading to the dropping of the constitutional provision defining Macedonia solely as a state of the Macedonian nation. A leading PDP figure even likened Speaker Andov and Prime Minister Georgievski to "Macedonian Taliban intent on isolating the country from the international community". And, to be honest, at no point in time before had Macedonia been as isolated as at the moment.

President Trajkovski reacted to the parliamentary abstention of PDP MPs rather nervously: according to him, this amounted to the undermining of the Ohrid Agreement (as if what had preceded might in any way be defined as beneficial)!? Perhaps precisely due to this, after their meetings with the party's top brass in Tetovo, both American ambassador Mike Hoenick and EU envoy to Macedonia Francois Leotard seemed to have come to a somewhat deepened understanding of the stand taken by PDP.

Speaker Stojan Andov is unable to determine when the parliamentary session on proposed constitutional amendments is to be expected. "When the necessary parliamentary majority is obtained" ran his vague assessment. President Trajkovski has made it known that three additional amendments are forthcoming from his cabinet this week... As for the international community, it seems to be as interested in wrapping things up in a hurry as taking its time. It does not wish to lose a minute when the start of Operation Silver Fox and the deployment of international observers paving the way for the return of international forces to crisis areas are concerned. In the meantime, set time-limits are being constantly violated, while the mandates of NATO troops and OSCE and EU observers are nearing their date of expiry, New Year's Eve 2002. As things stand at the moment, there is reason to believe both will find themselves in Macedonia as late as spring of next year. Brussels is in no hurry to give away money at some donors' conference. As far as that is concerned, Macedonian "war lords" may be tranquil. At their own expense, of course.

The decision of the Macedonian government to allow the use of two airports in the country for airplanes engaged in the strike on Afghanistan went by virtually unnoticed in the international community. But, in some critically minded sections of the Macedonian society, the gesture was interpreted as being almost paramount to outright toadying and elbowing the way into the international coalition against terrorism. According to PDP leader Imeri, the American ambassador to Macedonia left no doubt as to how the "global community" perceived this gesture of the Macedonian government: "The largest possible contribution Macedonia could make to the endeavor of uprooting global terrorism is its adoption of the proposed amendments to its constitution".

After all said and done, it seems the Macedonian government is where it was at the outset of the whole story. In the past few weeks it has proved that it consents to what it rather would not consent to of its own free will only after being cornered into a tight spot. Old news, as far as diplomatic games concerning the Balkan "barrel of gun powder" are concerned. In other words, a great lot of benevolence will be needed if the recent frolics of the local politicians are to be forgotten. Otherwise, Macedonia may well find itself taking the wrong path to the long anticipated "brighter future". Paying the understood price on its own, naturally.

ZELJKO BAJIC

(AIM Skopje)