Expectations, Apprehension, and Disappointment

Serbia:

AIM Belgrade, October 8, 2001

FRY in War against Terrorism

From the war against international terrorism announced on Sept. 11 and now already under way, official Belgrade expects more understanding for the problems of Kosovo Serbs, and simultaneously fears that financial aid necessary for the strengthening of emerging Yugoslav democracy could be delayed or reduced.

The news of the attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon reached Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica in Podgorica, during a session of the Supreme Defense Council which, among other issues, debated the security of state borders. After a separate meeting with Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, Kostunica condemned the terrorist attack as something that "shook the entire world and showed that both in good and bad manifestations the world is a global village indeed." He also stressed that the concept of terrorism will unavoidably change and continue to cause essential concern. "Furthermore," he said, "we live in the region which is very exposed to terrorist attacks."

Two weeks later, in an incomprehensible statement, Milo Djukanovic accused Belgrade of hypocrisy in expressing condolences over the misfortune that hit the U.S. There, however, seems little apparent justification for that: neither in the first reactions nor later, in the various public analyses and comments of the military situation on the day the attack against Afghanistan, Belgrade's "reserves" concerning the announced global war against terrorism did not differ much from warnings of other international experts in regard to the objectives, methods, and the eventual effects of such an enterprise. The Yugoslav government immediately expressed its readiness to assist in discovering and punishing the perpetrators of terrorist crimes, stressing that "violence cannot and must not be the way of resolving any political problem in the world" and that "the FRY, as a victim of terrorism, has always expected the international community to be more forthcoming against any form of terrorism anywhere in the world, since terrorism is one of the greatest plagues of our age, which deserves to be resolutely curbed."

The first practical measures were undertaken as early as Sept. 11, by stepping up security of the U.S. and some other embassies in Belgrade, as well as the residences and apartments of foreign diplomats. Still, on Oct. 5 -- the first anniversary of the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic -- the U.S. embassy had to be evacuated because of a bomb threat. A unit of the Serbian Interior Ministry special police intervened: no bomb was discovered, but an Embassy spokesperson, who stressed that is was not the first such threat, expressed gratitude to the Yugoslav authorities for their prompt action. The same day security was upgraded at the Belgrade Surcin Airport -- one flight to Tel Aviv was cancelled as well as some connecting flights with ultimate destinations in the U.S. and Canada, in all instances because these countries' air space was closed. Otherwise, it was announced that the Yugoslav national carrier JAT has tightened security on all its flights, to a level greater than ever since 1994, and greatly beyond the international requirements for such situations.

Coincidentally, on Sept. 15, four days after the attack on the WTC and the Pentagon, Podgorica hosted the first meeting of interior ministers of Albania and all the countries that made up the former Yugoslavia. In addition to fighting illegal immigration and organized crime, cooperation in curbing terrorism was also agreed upon. As far as Serbia is concerned, besides the cooperation offered in discovering the terrorists involved in the attack on the U.S., an unnamed Interior Ministry official said on Sept. 18 that the Ministry could offer intelligence on the activities of Islamic fundamentalists during the wars in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. "The State Security Service has a group that has been monitoring the mujahedeen activities in the Balkans," the Belgrade-based Radio B92 was told. Federal Interior Minister Zoran Zivkovic confirmed the government's readiness to cooperate, adding that Bosnian police could provide even more pertinent data. The media outlets kept reporting on Osama bin Laden's alleged Bosnian passport, the Middle-Eastern mujahedeen residing in Bosnia and Kosovo, arrests of Islamic militants in Bosnia... The Belgrade Politika daily published an article claiming that the offices of certain humanitarian organizations in Kosovo and Metohija were reducing or suspending their operations, as well as articles disclosing the location of various terrorist bases. It has also been announced that the French intelligence agents in the KFOR Sector North asked the Yugoslav authorities to provide them with more detail on the activities of the Abu Bakir Sidik Mujahedeen Unit, operating under the command of Ekrem Avdiju (aka Abu Suheib) in the region of Drenica, Metohija, and Podujevo.

Serbian Interior Minister Dusan Mihailovic said on Sept. 17 that the Serbian Interior Ministry has plenty of information on the activities of Osama bin Laden on the territory of former Yugoslavia. "His organization has two bases in Bosnia-Herzegovina, he has been present in Albania, and has two additional bases in Kosovo and Metohija," Mihailovic said. "We know the names of the people in charge of the organization, and this global terrorist group has many branches. There are three additional specialized groups also present in the region, including Macedonia," said the minister. The statement was indirectly confirmed by a report of the Voice of America, according to which Bin Laden, at that moment already marked as the chief culprit of the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, had a well-developed network in the Balkans, with his main stronghold in Albania - where the U.S. embassy in Tirana had to be evacuated in 1998, and a visit by the then U.S. defense secretary, William Cohen, cancelled. The station said the other Bin Laden stronghold was in Bosnia, where several hundred mujahedeen took up residence during the 1991-1995 war -- some of them remaining there to the present day.

On Sept. 20, the possibility of terrorist attacks in Serbia was mentioned for the first time. The head of the coordinating center for Kosovo and Metohija and Serbia's vice premier, Nebojsa Covic, announced that there was information on two terrorist groups, Black Eagles of Nuredin Ibisi, and Cobra of a certain Commander Kusaetra, whose fighters blew up a bus last spring near Podujevo, killing 11 Serb passengers -- including women and children -- as well as injuring 40 other. The Cobra also planted explosives under the car of the head of the FRY office in Pristina, Aleksandar Petrovic. Covic claimed these two groups were ready to carry out similar attacks in Belgrade, and named as their chief financier the well-known Albanian expatriate from Switzerland, Bexhet Paqolli, adding that the Yugoslav authorities have requested their arrest by UNMIK, since "terrorist attacks in Kosovo, southern Serbia, and Macedonia are carried out by the same people, who are directly linked to the groups who struck New York and Washington."

The head of the Belgrade police linked the possibility of terrorist attacks in Belgrade to the fact that "Bin Laden was in Kosovo and helped terrorists there, as he did earlier in Bosnia and Herzegovina, that is, in the Muslim-Croat Federation. This is why we have few illusions that all of them have left the area, or have given up the idea of carrying out similar deeds in the future. But, they will be prevented." The same day, however, when asked by journalists in London whether the government in Belgrade had any data on the continuing presence of Bin Laden's supporters in Bosnia, Kosovo, or Albania, Yugoslav Minister of Defense Slobodan Krapovic curtly replied that he had no such information. Several days later, the head of the Serbian Interior Ministry's Department for Fighting Organized Crime, Radovan Knezevic, said, "For the time being, there is no operative information confirming the possibility of terrorist attacks in Serbia," but that, nevertheless, all measures had been taken to prevent any such attacks.

Despite this, Nebojsa Covic repeated on Sept. 27, in an interview to the Belgrade NIN magazine, that such attacks could indeed happen: "I didn't say anything just for the sake of saying it. My warning has been based on data provided by the Interior Ministry. They mention a figure of about one hundred people split in smaller groups and trained to carry out terrorist attacks." Covic further sees the general elections in Kosovo, scheduled for Nov. 17, as an opportunity for numerous additional uncertainties and risks. Growing international pressure on the government in Belgrade to "encourage" the Serbs to participate in the vote has lost much of its rationale and force after Sept. 11. Belgrade now has even stronger arguments to insist on upgraded and effective basic security for the Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija, if their "inclusion in the Kosovo political institutions is expected."

According to Covic, there are no guarantees that the newly-elected Assembly will not proclaim Kosovo and Metohija independent: "If the Serbs continue to move out of Kosovo, as an outcome of the fact that over two-thirds of the murdered Serbs were murdered after June 20, 1999, and over two-thirds of the abducted non-Albanians have been abducted after KFOR and UNMIK arrived in the province, and since violence has not been curbed, and since there is no freedom of movement, and not even token approach towards integrating the Serbs under the auspices of the international community, why should the people trust international peacekeeping and military forces?" he asked. And added: "New police forces accept former KLA guerrillas as recruits, though the KLA was an obvious terrorist organization, and no one is bothered by that, but when former Serbian police officers want to join, everyone is immediately very concerned." He said he hoped the U.S. attitude towards terrorism would change: "It should never again seem strange to us that someone may be regarded as a terrorist in New York, and only an extremist or a freedom fighter here." Covic quoted an example of a suspect in the bombing of the bus full of Serbs near Podujevo who "escaped" from the U.S. base in Kosovo: "No one can escape from Bondsteel. You can only be released from there. This is what I flatly told KFOR generals and UNMIK people."

On the other hand, the carrot offered to the Belgrade authorities did not become any more enticing. The U.N. Security Council and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan publicly assessed the situation in Kosovo following Sept. 11 as unsatisfactory, and said the Serbs and other non-Albanians lack basic safety, calling on Kosovo Albanian leaders to join the struggle against extremism and terrorism, and publicly condemn all sorts of ethnic violence. UNMIK head Hans Haekkerup said he knows nothing about ties between ethnic Albanian extremists and Osama bin Laden. Still, he removed from the ballot candidates Emrush Xhemaili, Gafur Elsani, and Sabit Gashi, three Albanians considered by the U.S. administration a threat to the international community's efforts to advance peace and stability, as well as a potential danger to the military forces of the U.S. and the other countries supporting the peace efforts.

Taking over as KFOR commander, Gen. Thorsten Skiaker said that the international community "will not see Kosovo as it saw it in 1999 - as an oppressed people under a tyrannical regime -- but as people who have frittered away world support through bickering and pettiness of mind." In his view, the events of Sept. 11 have changed the dynamics of world policy, bringing to the forefront a constant need to fight extremism regardless of its ethnic background. "No longer," said Skiaker, "is anyone willing to consider extremists as people whose grievances should be understood."

As far as the approved and/or expected financial assistance to FRY's and Serbia's fragile democracy goes, the first statements from Belgrade caused some concern. Milan Pajevic, the director of the G17 Plus group of experts which authored the new government's economic program, said shortly after the attacks on New York and Washington that it was too early to speak of all their potential consequences, "but if we are pessimistic, we could say that the entire world could experience certain unpredictable, very adverse developments, which would inevitably affect the economy, finances, turning most things from bad to worse." A week later, the former head of G17, Yugoslav Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub Labus, described the perspectives of foreign assistance in somewhat more favorable terms, saying he expected the US$1.3 billion approved by the June donors' conference in Brussels to arrive by the end of the year: "Regardless of all problems in the wake of the New York tragedy, the U.S. administration did not abandon its plan to send US$150 million to Yugoslavia," he said, adding that the future of the country does not hinge on donations, but on direct investment.

Simultaneous statements from abroad were equally appeasing: "The possible consequences of what has occurred might reflect on the entire world economy and cause some problems in the distribution of donations," said the chief coordinator for the Donors' Conference for Yugoslavia, adding that the key issues remains whether Belgrade "will succeed in making its reform plans work and whether it will make proper decisions, whether privatization will be carried out, the banking system reformed and whether the Parliament will pass decisions on reforms. At this point, all this is more important for Yugoslavia than the events in the U.S." A similar message was sent by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs, Janet Bough indicating the level of Belgrade's importance in the world-wide drive to ensure support in the anti-terrorism war: "We haven't lost interest. To the contrary: we are ready to continue cooperating and assisting in the political and economic reforms."

The Belgrade media paid great attention, without commenting, to the Sunday Times interview by the new U.S. ambassador to London, William Farris. Farris said that the U.S. administration plans an important and long-range increase of its military presence in the Balkans, which it sees as a potential buffer zone to the terrorist threat from the East." Needless to say, this is a radical change, probably prompted by the Sept. 11 attack. Instead, therefore, of withdrawing from Bosnia, Kosovo, and Macedonia, NATO will strengthen its presence in the region, turning the Balkans into its training ground and an operational zone. Lord Russell Johnston, the Chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, expressed Europe's stance -- or one of its stances -- by saying that "in a global campaign of suppressing terrorism the same standards should be applied regardless of whether Afghanistan, Kosovo or Macedonia are in question." He added, however, that he has no information on the links between the Kosovo Liberation Army and Osama bin Laden. The former NATO spokesman and current director of the NATO Information Sector, Jamie Shea, told the Ljubljana Delo newspaper that "because of Afghanistan we cannot let the Balkans slip out of our hands and risk having a new Afghanistan move into our front yard."

It is equally difficult to estimate what effect this mixture of differing views and statements will produce in Yugoslavia, or in Serbia, as it is to try to predict how long "the first war in the 21st century" will last. Serbian Justice Minister Vladan Batic once more urged the Hague Tribunal Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte to arrest Hashim Thaci, Ramush Haradinaj, and Agim Ceku because "it is clear to everyone" that they are war criminals, and "after the events in America you are even more obliged to do so, because what is at stake now is not Kosovo and Metohija, or the Hague Tribunal, but the future of the international struggle against terrorism." Ibrahim Rugova labelled Covic's statements on the terrorists in Kosovo and Metohija "Serb propaganda," which was slightly softer than his earlier views of Belgrade's diplomatic activity as "a new occupation of Kosovo." In his note of congratulations to Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica, sent on the occasion of the first anniversary of Milosevic's overthrow, U.S. President George W. Bush expressed expectations of Yugoslav cooperation in the struggle against terrorism. In a note sent simultaneously to Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic, Bush added that Milosevic's extradition to the Hague court "will forever be an inspiration to all of us." Faced with the turbulent history of labor strikes, and an even more adversarial labor force in the future - in the conditions of stagnation or backsliding in production, and growing popular dissatisfaction -- Zoran Djindjic told the London Daily Telegraph he was disappointed with the West which had promised a much greater economic assistance: "Two years ago Madeleine Albright promised us two billion dollars if we toppled Milosevic, and so far we have received hardly US$100 million." End of report.

Aleksandar Ciric (AIM Belgrade)

First on: 11010-006-trae-beo