Serbia a Year After the October Revolution

Better a Quarreling House than a Madhouse

Those who in a moment of weakness allow themselves to be disappointed with the effects of one year of DOS government have no other choice but to remember what kind country they used to live in one year ago; they used to call it a "madhouse" and it appeared to them that Serbia's chances of emerging from the Milosevic system equalled those of Planet Earth leaving the Solar System.

AIM Belgrade, October 5, 2001

Experts of the G17 Institute recently announced that Serbia's first year without Milosevic was ending with only 10 percent of the population saying that they live better today than a year ago, when after 13 years of undisputed rule the former autocratic regime was toppled. One-half of the population says that with DOS in power nothing has changed in their lives, because their wallets are as empty as they used to be in the past. According to the same survey as many as 40 percent of the people polled said that their standards of living have deteriorated since last October. Simultaneously a growing number of people are gradually losing hope that something could improve in their lives and are ever less believing promises that from month to month their rising standards of living are going to surpass those of all neighboring countries. Particularly at a moment when DOS leaders keep wasting their energy on mutual bickering.

Let us recall that one of the chief slogans DOS used to attract votes ahead of last year's elections was general welfare (although with no specific deadline) -- "we win, everybody gains." A year later the gain consists more in a lack of mental pollution, than in some tangible embetterment. Playing on the betrayed hopes of better life, opponents of the new government have for the past several months been using large quantities of spray paint to write on empty walls: "Everything is the same, only he is gone," suggesting that Oct. 5, 2000, was one huge scam.

If everything DOS had promised when coming to power is taken into account (especially its "Contract with Serbia" signed by all DOS candidates in a pledge of what they will do after they come to power in a day, in a month, and in a year) it turns out that saying that things are the same apart from his being in The Hague is not that far from the truth. Those who for a moment are overwhelmed by disappointment with the effects of one year of DOS government have no other choice but to remember what sort of country (which they used to call a "madhouse") they used to live in exactly one year ago when Serbia's chances of emerging from the Milosevic system equalled the possibility of Planet Earth leaving the Solar System. And immediately they will feel better, even if they belong to the category of those whose wallets are emptier than they were a year ago. The Serbia with Milosevic, Seselj and the Yugoslav Left in power was a nation that had lost all hope. Today's Serbia, with Kostunica and Djindjic at odds and hardly on speaking terms, who have reached a point where any compromise between them seems impossible, still leaves room for some hope. That hope is that we will never again live in an undemocratic state, internationally isolated and with no friends, involved in wars, losses of territory, and in the midst of economic crisis.

A summary of the effects of the year-long rule of the new government shows that in addition to failing to keep its promise of a quick improvement in standards of living, the DOS government has done little to dismantle the criminal apparatus that as a rule accompanies impoverished societies. Many of those who over the past ten years either thanks to their close links to the former regime or through crime (to which the police turned a blind eye) amassed enormous wealth, are now trying to adjust to the new circumstances, to modernize their methods and preserve and augment their crime-business empires. The past year did nothing to reduce the danger of them becoming the main winners in the privatization process and of Serbia not learning its lesson from the example of other countries in which some dozen families, through dirty money and politicians they control, actually rule the country. Meanwhile, Serbia hasn't become less corrupt, and this doesn't appeal to foreign investors who want to sink their money in secure businesses.

The DOS government is far behind with preparations for changing the Serbian Constitution. The signatories of the "Contract with Serbia" promised that they would immediately embark on structural reforms of everything around us, and a year later are still on square one, promising once more that legislation changing the system will be passed by next January, which, all delays included, is a record for a country in transition. At this point the judiciary is just one bit more reliable than when it used to be directly controlled by the former government, as well as the schooling system, whereas in the area of health care it is noteworthy to report that hospitals do not ask a patient to bring bandages and medicine when being admitted. At last year's election campaign rallies officials also promised that the federal state would be immediately put in order through an agreement with Montenegro. The situation here is much worse than it was a year ago, although the blame for that should be mostly laid on the changed attitude of the Montenegrin government. Yugoslavia's borders are still not fully determined, which is also a poor recommendation for anyone seeking long-term economic and other ties or stable international relations.

The DOS government also failed in proving that over the past year the concept of government has radically changed. Much like the former rulers, the current ones frequently cannot conceal their desire for absolute power, and they have wasted precious time in deploying their trusted people in key positions, mostly through a policy of political suitability. The crisis centers which on behalf of the new government used to break into state run companies recalled Milosevic's purges from the "anti-bureaucratic revolution" period. As of several months ago it all stopped, but particularly in smaller towns the impression is that DOS was struggling for power for power's sake and not for the common good.

Even for those not wishing to press for details, the list of things DOS promised and failed or avoided to do (either because of incapability, or its overly broad coalition that makes agreements rather difficult) is quite impressive. Still, it would be wrong to say that between two Octobers nothing has been done to lead Serbia out of the category of hopeless societies. The country's opening toward the world was carried out impeccably, all international blockades have been removed, a significant diplomatic success has been attained in southern Serbia, the domestic currency has been stabilized, the issue of the enormous foreign debt has been brought up at the Paris and London Clubs of creditors, and the privatization process (albeit rather uncertain) has been initiated.

In today's Serbia criminals are still engaging in gunfights in the streets, but people no longer fear losing their lives because of their political views. The news media, although not very different and falling short of the basic principles of the profession, are no longer spreading hatred and paranoia, are not dividing the people into "patriots" and "traitors," into "better" or "worse" Serbs. The intolerance which once used to dominate TV screens is today exhibited only by perverts and authors of spray-paint messages on the city walls under the cover of darkness.

When summing up the results of a year of DOS government one should take into account the previous situation. A year ago Serbia was land covered with nuclear fallout from which nothing healthy could sprout. Everything was destroyed -- from the economy, to state institutions, to moral values, and then power was taken by Europe's least successful opposition after years of licking its wounds from clashes with Milosevic. DOS has come to power in a country where the secret police chief was suspected of involvement in political murders, in a country whose president was the prime suspect of an international court, in a country were the constitutional court consiste d of peoplewho were involved in election fraud, whose ministers were reputed to like being bribed...

Over the past year Serbia has changed from a "madhouse" everyone wanted to leave, from a country with the "worst possible opposition" into an arena of political quarrels in which opposition does not exist. Judged by European standards that might not be much, but is still a step forward, when what the start looked like is taken into account. DOS is now pledging that it will get closer to Europe by doing its best to find a good opposition for Serbia, splitting its own ranks.

Nenad Lj. Stefanovic

(AIM)