RS in the Wake of Milosevic:

A Refuge for Suspects

AIM Banja Luka, July 3, 2001

The extradition of former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague has worried international officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina as much as it has worried officials in Republika Srpska. The former fear that the Serb entity could turn into a safe haven for war criminals and the latter will have to choose either to arrest Karadzic and Mladic or face isolation and disappearance. For them, both options are political suicide.

The head of the OSCE Mission in B-H, Robert Bicroft, best expressed the fear felt by international officials. "None of those who have to be extradited to the Hague court should think that they will be able to find refuge in Republika Srpska," he said, and intimated that both Croatia and Yugoslavia "will help in resolving the problem." The international community high representative in Bosnia, Wolfgang Petritsch, in his first reaction sent a clear message to the RS leadership that "Republika Srpska cannot be the only entity not cooperating with the tribunal and in which war crimes suspects can move freely."

Fears that the resolve shown by the government in Belgrade in cooperating with the war crimes tribunal could turn Republika Srpska into a safe haven for war crimes suspects from RS who until recently were hiding in Serbia, and those from Yugoslavia who believe they could be potential suspects, are not at all unfounded. It is widely known that a number of suspects and potential suspects moved from RS to Yugoslavia after the war ended, where they hoped to enjoy Milosevic's protection. The change of government in Belgrade left them with only one way out: to return to Republika Srpska and hope for salvation under the mantle of the Serb Democratic Party, which has a major say in government. They will seek shelter in the municipalities firmly controlled by the nationalists, whose number significantly increased following the last elections. Even if the central authorities begin cooperating with the Hague court, local officials are still strong enough and their cooperation should not be expected.

This is why both Petritsch and Bicroft are rightly concerned about the implications of Milosevic's extradition in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

RS responses to the extradition of the former Yugoslav president have shown that the Serb entity should not be expected to follow the example of Belgrade that readily. The events in the Yugoslav capital were received in Republika Srpska with disbelief. This was confirmed by initial reactions of RS officials, and the silence that followed.

The RS member of the Bosnian presidency, Zivko Radisic, avoided as is customary for him, to say what Milosevic's extradition means for Republika Srpska. However, he did not forget to say that this act implies that "the people who extradited (Milosevic) could be held responsible." RS President Mirko Sarovic attempted to explain that nothing more than legislation for cooperation with the Hague court was necessary. He admitted that arrests were possible in RS as well, and did not rule out the possibility of direct application of the tribunal's statute, but also spoke in favor of passing a cooperation bill.

RS Premier Mladen Ivanic was the most direct in commenting on the extradition. "In the next two or three days the RS government should take a clear stand in regard to cooperation with the Hague international court and the extradition of war crimes suspects," he said. He expressed his expectation that the RS Assembly and all relevant political parties will take a clear stand on the issue as well.

As opposed to Radisic and Sarovic who were rather evasive, Ivanic said Milosevic's extradition had faced Republika Srpska with a major political challenge. He is obviously aware that RS's future political positions depend on cooperation with the Hague court and extradition of suspects to this institution.

Ivanic's strong warning was primarily meant for the RS Assembly, in which the Serb Democratic Party, the coalition partner of his Party of Democratic Progress, has a majority. The office of the assembly speaker however, made no response to Milosevic's extradition, which could be a very bad signal given that Dragan Kalinic is the Serb Democratic Party president and probably still under the strong influence of Radovan Karadzic.

Ivanic's first move will be a visit to the Hague court, announced for July 5, during which he and court officials will discuss methods of cooperation, which tribunal spokeswoman Florance Hartmann said did not exist. The RS delegation, which will also include Justice Minister Biljana Maric and the RS premier's advisor for relations with the Hague court, Sinisa Djordjevic, is expected to offer concrete forms of cooperation. This could be RS officials' last chance to take an actual step in that direction, instead pressing on with their legal debates about the constitutionality of extradition and the need for a special bill.

Ivanic has no one else to pass this urgent issue to. The worst case scenario is dispute over the matter between Ivanic's Party of Democratic Progress and the Serb Democratic Party. This could lead to a parliamentary crisis and a clash between the government and the assembly. Ivanic's party could then seek to form a coalition with Dodik's Social Democrats and certain other minor parties, which could paralyze the Serb Democrats, but would not kill them.

In other words, Milosevic's departure for The Hague could result in major upheaval on the political scene if the Serb Democrat Party, fearing for the fate of its influential members and former officials, continues to obstruct cooperation with the U.N. court. The position of the Serb Democrats will be known in the next couple of days, when the RS Assembly will sit in a regular session. If the issue of cooperation is not placed on the agenda, or if it is tackled declaratively, that will be a sure sign RS is heading for serious political disturbances.

Branko Peric

(AIM)