The Government and DOS in A Crisis

Shocks in the "Unfinished" State

AIM Belgrade, July 3, 2001

The departure of former FRY President Slobodan Milosevic for the Hague brought Belgrade a host of commendations from Western capitals and, if the donors keep their promises, this could in the long-run alleviate the extremely unfavourable economic position of Yugoslavia. At the same time, Milosevic's departure for the Hague destabilised the national political scene and intensified numerous smouldering misunderstandings which, until now, the DOS leaders managed to cover-up more or less successfully. This time it turned out that all crises and dilemmas in an "unfinished state" such as FRY might easily turn into a rather serious state crisis.

Thus, the decision of the Serbian Government to send Milosevic packing to the Hague brought down the Federal Government and intensified the dilemmas about the survival of the federal state. In the next couple of days it will become somewhat clearer whether this same stone will bring down DOS too and consequently Djindjic's Cabinet and whether this summer Serbia will once again go through a period of exhausting election campaigns and indefinitely postpone reforms, which have not even seriously started.

Rather heated discussions (which might last indefinitely and which obviously decrease mutual trust within the DOS) whether Slobodan Milosevic's extradition to the Hague Tribunal was the only possible solution or, from the legal point of view, was a "disastrous move", might be pushed to the background early this week when the FRY President, Vojislav Kostunica, starts consultations with representatives of different parties on the formation of the new Government. Slobodan Samardzic, Ph.D, President Kostunica's Advisor hinted at the possibility that the new Government might start working in ten days and such a short period might have something to do with very few "combinations" that exist at the federal level.

Stability and certain survival of FRY could be only achieved through DOS-DPS coalition, but naturally, something like that doesn't fit in Djukanovic's plans for independent and internationally recognised Montenegro. It is widely believed that at this moment only powerful international pressure could force Djukanovic back into serious negotiations and some combinations on the future of the federal state. That is why it is hard to believe that Kostunica will invite anyone from the DPS to consultations on the formation of the new Government, since that party last year boycotted elections for the Federal Parliament. In recent weeks, by its refusal to agree on the Law on Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, the SNP has made it easier for DPS to persuade Montenegrin citizens that Yugoslavia as such has become meaningless.

In such a situation Kostunica will most probably try to patch up the Federal Government relying on the Montenegrin Coalition for Yugoslavia. According to some sources, such Government would have a new quality and greater political legitimacy than the previous one consisting of DOS an SNP, because it would include those who won 42 percent of votes at the April elections in Montenegro. In that government a special role (perhaps even a Prime Minister's post which should be filled by someone from Montenegro) might be played by representatives of the National Party, who claim to have "excellent relations with the DOS, DPS and international community and can bring these three factors together in a political agreement". Such a Cabinet would most probably have several months to start discussions on relations between Serbia and Montenegro and to define new principles for the functioning of the Federation, after which the federal elections would be called. Naturally, all this applies only if the ruling DPS agrees to any kind of serious talks on the survival of the federal state. An "anonymous" source from the National Party claims that the formation of the new Federal Government will make sense only if this time DPS "joins the game".

Judging by all appearances (after bad experience with the SNP), a large part of the DOS will join in the project of forming the new Federal Government with much less enthusiasm than before and, one might even say, much less faith in the future of the federal state. This is true especially after the rare and failed experiment in which the concept of the future state was agreed between the ruling coalition from one and the opposition coalition from the other federal unit.

The Belgrade sociologist, Vladimir Goati, calls such an experiment "making holes in the water" and doesn't believe that it has any future, being of the opinion that the way out of the present crisis exclusively lies in the attempt of the Governments of Serbia and Montenegro at reaching an agreement on a joint state in direct negotiations. True, no one from DOS speaks of this openly. In a newspaper interview Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic recently observed (rather unwillingly) that a "paint job" of the same front is all that will be done at the federal level, which means that once again the DOS will have to rely on SNP's personnel who, in his opinion, have already shown that they are not outstanding partners.

Few are those in the DOS who believe that holding of new federal elections would change much. Without Djukanovic's DPS such elections would most probably only speed up the end of Yugoslavia because once again a minority option from Montenegro would form a Federal Government with the majority option from Serbia. On the day FRY President Kostunica started consultations on the composition of the new Government, representatives of the organisation G-17 publicly demanded the formation of an expert Government with Miroljub Labus, Ph.D. at its head. Representatives of G-17 gave a similar proposal last October when SNP, nevertheless, got the Prime Minister's function.

Extradition of Slobodan Milosevic to the Hague Tribunal has already strained relations within the DOS itself. Dissatisfied with the fact that the former FRY President ended up in the Hague against the will of DSS, leaders of this party have already made the first move by separating their parliamentary group from the until-recent integral DOS delegate club in both Parliaments. As its second step, the DSS has announced its demands for the reconstruction of Djindjic's Cabinet which immediately started various speculations whether Kostunica's party intends to control the internal affairs and justice departments in the future. One of the named, Justice Minister Vladan Batic, already rejected every possibility of changes within the Serbian Government and warmly recommended to the DSS to "reshuffle" its own ranks, obviously having in mind Health Minister Obren Joksimovic.

Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic also doesn't appear elated by the idea on the reconstruction of the Government and in numerous interviews he gave these days, suggested to the DSS to try to exert greater influence on the Government's work by proposing concrete bills, which this party had not done before. According to Djindjic, the other option is DSS's greater physical presence in the Government "which can be subject of discussion". Member of this party's Presidency, Filip Golubovic recently indicated the DSS negotiating stand in future talks within the DOS by saying that this party only symbolically participated in the executive branch of Government. According to Golubovic, this didn't exclude the possibility of DSS being one day accused of irresponsibility of those who are not under control and who are on DOS's behalf taking various centres of power. According to the DSS, a way out of this situation is the division of responsibilities or disintegration of this coalition.

As many times before, disputes will most probably be resolved in the DOS Presidency, which many are calling the "Serbian Politburo". Many troubles of the new authorities result directly from the fact that important state decisions are adopted at the sessions of the DOS leadership and informal talks between political leaders, which are subsequently processed formally in the (still) fragile and uninfluential institutions of the system. The DOS leaders will start the new negotiating round with the latest results of the public opinion poll (which did not take into account the effects of Milosevic's extradition to the Hague), according to which, individually taken, the DSS is still the strongest party on the Serbian political scene. Nevertheless, the advantage of this party over other DOS parties is not enough for the DSS to decide to risk new elections for the Republican Parliament since that would mean only the reshuffling of the same cards. The same public opinion poll unavoidably leads to the conclusion that of all available options: the break up, new elections or more patience - the last one would be most beneficial for this country's future.

Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic compares the current situation with the overtaking of cars and claims that there are some in the DOS who are applying the brakes while others are gunning the engine, which is naturally bad for the car, but he also fears that at this moment the new elections might prove disastrous for the initiated reforms. The fact that at this moment no one wants nor wishes the elections naturally doesn't exclude the possibility that Serbia, perhaps even FRY, can expect them.

Nenad Lj.Stefanovic

(AIM)