With A Little Help from Our Friends

After a 15-day pause, which is almost inconceivable for a country at war, leaders of four major political parties of Macedonia continued their talks through the mediation of President Trajkovski. They are expected to find a way out of the war that the country has been caught in. The optimism, which is despite everything still present, is not based on possible results of these talks, but on the fact that EU and USA President have sent their men who will serve as "form-masters" for local politicians.

AIM Skoplje, July 3, 2001

Without any previous announcement, same as he previously interrupted his contacts with four major parties, the Macedonian President quite unexpectedly resumed his meetings with their leaders, who are expected to achieve political agreement and thus create space for the implementation of President's peace plan which would save the country from war chaos into which it is rapidly sinking. After 15-day break (which incompetent politicians in a country with normal circumstances might have allowed themselves) leaders of parties which represent the backbone of the Government of political unity continued their negotiations where they left off, after the Macedonian parties rejected Constitutional amendments proposed by their Albanian counterparts.

Many things happened in the meantime: the offensive of Macedonian security forces for the "liberation" of Aracinovo, the largest Macedonian village near Skoplje, which was under the control of members of the Macedonian UCK (NLA-National Liberation Army); popular revolts and protests of fully armed police reserve corps who fired shots in front of Parliament building demanding from the President of the state to explain what had actually happened in Aracinovo (the events, which according to President himself, for a country that is already at war with the "terrorist", might mean the beginning of a civil war). They wanted to know whether the great "victory" of the Macedonian security forces was annulled under the pressure of EU and NATO by pulling out of "defeated" NLA members (in American military air-conditioned buses) or by the failure to get the village free within the 6-hour "promised deadline".

It seems as if both the time and events are standing since the events in front of the Parliament building, President Trajkovski's address to the nation and Prime Minister's interview for the TV in that connection. It seemed as if a cease-fire speard over the battlefields, politicians were silent, while only foreign guests appeared busy.

First to arrive to Macedonia at the invitation of the state leadership was Rober Badinter, French expert for constitutional matters. At one time, a commission of the European Communities named after him had assessed that of all SFRY Republics Slovenia and Macedonia were the ones which, primarily on the basis of their Constitutions, deserved to be internationally recognised as independent. To the Macedonian public Badinter was presented as a sensible reply to "unacceptable maximalistic demands of Albanian parties aimed at establishing the consensus-based democracy which would mean the end of the Macedonian state", as Macedonian political parties assessed constitutional amendments proposed by the Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA). Leaders of four major parties will have to inform the President of their opinion of Albanian suggestions given in the form of principles relating to future constitutional problems. Although Badinter's document is not very long (page and a half), there are already different interpretations of its contents. Namely, some think that there is no chance for the establishment of a consensus-based democracy and two-ethnic state, others think that the document essentially proposes what is already envisaged by the current Macedonian Constitution (the Macedonian side), yet others that Badinter's offer would satisfy two thirds of Albanian demands (in the opinion of DPA), then that Badinter is offering a solution which would prevent majorisation because it envisages that the laws on the status of minorities have to adopted by two-thirds majority or at least by 50 percent of votes of Albanian parliamentarians(according to the PDP).

Also, Francoise Leotard, EU representative and former French Defence Minister, and James Pardew, President Bush's special envoy, recently held intensive individual and joint discussions with local political leaders and state leadership as part of preparations for their mediating role in reaching a political agreement. Leotard will hold four-month consultations, while Pardew is believed to have an open return air-ticket for the States. Although Western diplomats expect quick results, July 15 is mentioned as a date by which Macedonia should give proof to EU Ministers on "substantial progress" achieved in inter-ethnic dialogue. But, the fact that summer holidays are approaching should not be forgotten, because it is certain that Western diplomats will not postpone their vacations for anyone, so that talks might easily drag on until September.

The latest idea on the way of reaching a political agreement between leaders of parliamentary parties proceeds from their assumed agreement that Badinter's document can be used as frameworks for talks, while foreign mediators represent a "facilitating" factor for its interpretation. Western diplomats in Skoplje claim that NATO representative Peter Faith maintains an open line with NLA representatives with a view to ensuring a cease-fire. Formally speaking, cease-fire is not a precondition for talks on political agreement, but is certainly welcome for its realisation. According to the same sources, now that the cards are on the table it is easy to see who is against the political agreement: "The negotiating parties will be driven into a corner and forced to state their concrete opinion about possible solutions". Western diplomats think that the Albanians are also fed up with this situation and that they can hardly wait for it to end, which is why the Macedonian side should avoid any wrong moves that might force the Albanians to join the NLA. For these same sources, the fact that "the NLA political representative, Ali Ahmeti has handed over Aracinovo as he had promised", serves as a proof that this Army is much better organised than it was originally thought. On the other hand, that could be a good sign because if they manage to persuade Ahemti to demilitarise NLA, he will fulfil his promise.

On the other hand, British Prime Minister Tonny Blair from London and Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou from Athens launched an initiative on convening an international conference which would be dedicated to the finding a solution for Macedonia. At his meeting with President Trajkovski James Pardew rejected the idea of an international conference as a forum for finding future solutions because he thought that, with the assistance of foreign mediators, it is possible to find a solution which has to be adopted within the institutions of the Macedonian system. Such American stand is explained by a change in the American foreign policy strategy, because international conferences of the Dayton type were a part of strategy of Clinton's administration.

Incidentally, today very few people in Macedonia believe that local politicians will be able to reach a concrete agreement. Had there been political will and had they been capable of doing it, they would have done it long ago. The optimism regarding expectations from Trajkovski's meetings is the result of the public belief that foreign pressure will help politicians work out some kind of agreement.

At today's press conference, Defence Minister Vlado Buckovski expressed his opinion that the situation was getting worse which was why it was necessary to intensify President Trajkovski's meetings so as to reach concrete results as soon as possible and create conditions for the implementation of the plan on NLA's demilitarisation. At that same press conference Buckovski said that the NLA probably had some 2 thousand well-trained members and twice as many members who joined either voluntarily or were mobilised. Although the media still mention "terrorists' provocations" to which "the Macedonian security forces usually respond with all their power", the conflicts are spreading to new Macedonian regions. It seems that these days the NLA took over the village of Radusa, near Skoplje, while according to foreign press agencies it has already taken at least 4 smaller villages in the region of Mt.Sara. Because of Radusa combat helicopters are constantly flying over Skoplje, which seem like a trademark of the Macedonian war, but do not have a reassuring effect on the denizens of Macedonian capital.

AIM Skoplje

ISO RUSI