To Hope Is Human

For several days Macedonian President Boris Trajkovski and the leaders of four strongest Macedonian parties have been negotiating the agenda of the Macedonian-Albanian dialogue. The news media, somewhat nervously, have been saying all sorts of things about the talks. Despite this, however, the public is mostly optimistic because a week ago it looked as if there was no way out

AIM Skopje, June 18, 2001

Conditions in Macedonia are relatively peaceful. War is no longer raging around Kumanovo. The cease-fire declared by both sides is more or less being observed, humanitarian workers, after a week, have entered the region around the village of Lipkovo controlled by the Macedonian wing of the UCK, also known as the National Liberation Army (NLA), bringing medicine and other necessities to civilians who have been isolated between the two warring sides for 50 days. Water supplies in Kumanovo, a town of 100,000 people, will return to normal now that the valves at Lake Glaznje were opened, and talks between president Boris Trajkovski and the leaders of four largest political parties have been in progress behind closed doors since June 14, to define the agenda of the Macedonian-Albanian dialogue...

In the absence of information on the talks in Trajkovski's office, which is the first step in realizing his peace plan, the news media, somewhat nervously, are carrying all sorts of reports. Thus, today's front page of the Vecer newspaper featured the following headline: "Dialogue at President Trajkovski's Continues: Instead of Civic Constitution Albanians Demand Right to Veto!"

Dnevnik said: "Summit: No End in Sight;" "Albanian Parties Radicalize Their Demands: Democratic Party of Albanians Wants a Vice President Veto Power" (Utrinski Vesnik); "State Administration Continues Going Partisan: OSCE To Train Police on DPA and PDP Lists" (Vest); "Why Did Ali Ahmeti Declare a Cease-Fire Until June 27? War To Spread to Albania?" said the pro-government Nova Makedonija, linking the war in Macedonia to elections in Albania, claiming that "Many NLA 'fighters' from Macedonia and Kosovo were transferred to Albania to assist Sali Berisha in elections due on June 24. If Berisha fails to win, Albania could face war (!?)..."

These headlines are reactions to the details of a proposal for amending the Macedonian Constitution, made by the leader of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), Imer Imeri, and backed by DPA president Arben Xhaferi, which leaked despite an agreement between the participants of the talks not to go public with anything until some kind of consensus is reached. Those responsible for the leak, of course, immediately went public with their views of the Albanian proposals.

The leader of the Social Democratic Party of Macedonia, Branko Crvenkovski, said the Albanian proposal was unrealistic and "unacceptable because it contradicts the civic concept of Macedonia." He said the leader of the VMRO-DPMNE and Macedonian premier, Ljupco Georgijevski, shared his opinion, and announced their joint counter offer.

This was nothing new, and the public should realize that it was in the spirit of the declared inter-ethnic "tolerance" and political activity based on party platforms and not the ethnic background of political parties, as has been demonstrated during the last four months, in which the country had been engulfed by ethnic war.

But only a week ago, on June 11, the situation appeared as if there was no way out. The fighting around Kumanovo was in full swing, the NLA was opening another front or activating an old one, near Tetovo, some 10,000 civilians were caught near Lipkovo in the crossfire between Macedonian security forces and the NLA, about 100,000 Kumanovo residents did not have a drop of water... Several days earlier Premier Georgijevski and his VMRO-DPMNE called on the Macedonian president to make good on his promises that military operations against the NLA will last until they are completely routed, they openly spoke in favor of declaring a state of war and wanted Trajkovski to introduce it, reminding him that he was their presidential candidate, and that there should be no dialogue while fighting is in progress...

Newspaper headlines showed that only too openly: "NLA Wants To Shell Skopje:" One Soldier Killed, Three Wounded During Attempt To Enter Slupcane" (Vecer); "Capital City a Hostage: Terrorists from Aracinovo Take Aim at Skopje!" (Dnevnik); "Macedonian Security Forces Launched Offensive Three Days Ago on Villages Near Kumanovo and Lipkovo: Hand to Hand Fighting near Orizare" (Utrinski Vjesnik); "Civil War Scenario for Macedonia: Skopje under Siege" (Vest); "Population Leaves Largest Albanian Village in Macedonia in Panic, Only Albanian Terrorists Remain" (Nova Makedonija)...

The difference from a week ago is quite obvious. It is no marvel, therefore, that mild optimism is now the prevailing mood among Macedonia's population, despite attempts by some, believed to be under the influence of Prime Minister Georgijevski, who promote fighting as the sole answer to ethnic Albanian threats. Thus the Macedonian Orthodox Church spoke in favor of preserving the existing conditions in an open letter to Macedonian top leaders. The whip of the VMRO-DPMNE caucus in the Macedonian Parliament, Cedo Kraljevski, sent a message to Macedonian party leaders, including his favorite, Georgijevski, and his until recently greatest adversary, Crvenkovski, not to yield to the Albanians' demands too much as they are representatives of the Macedonian people. Romanian Foreign Minister Mircea Geoana, as current OSCE chairman, visited Skopje on June 11, and said that the coming week was probably of crucial importance to Macedonia. At a press conference he stated that retired U.S. diplomat Robert Frowick was not asked to leave Macedonia (as the new Macedonian Foreign Minister, Ilinka Mitreva, had said), but did make mistakes in promoting his peace plan due to poor coordination at the end of his mission to Macedonia.

Frowick -- whose plan obviously envisaged the signing of the Prizren declaration, already given preliminary support by the leaders of ethnic Albanian parties in Macedonia, Imeri and Xhaferi, and NLA political representative Ali Ahmeti -- returned to the U.S. without accomplishing his goal.

But the Trajkovski plan, clearly displaying a strong influence of NATO, Javier Solana and George Robertson, is in many respects in the spirit of the Prizren Declaration. Namely, both the declaration and the Trajkovski plan envisage a cease-fire, which indeed happened. Furthermore Georgijevski's war option seems out of the game, as well as its author, at least as far as Western officials and diplomats are concerned. Dialogue, according to Trajkovski, means that all open issues will be on the table. The Macedonian political block's greatest fear is that the thin line separating Macedonia from federalism could be crossed. In the negotiations at Trajkovski's office, ethnic Albanian representatives are far from demanding federalization or cantonization; they, in fact, agreed with Ahmeti and signed a paper saying that "ethnic territories" are not a solution to Macedonia's problems...

Foreign diplomats in Macedonia, particularly U.S. Ambassador Mike Einik and British Ambassador Mark Dickinson (who is also Solana's representative in Macedonia) are closely monitoring the talks at Trajkovski's office. Cynics say they are carefully supervising them. Either way, this means that international monitoring of the Macedonian-Albanian dialogue exists, something the NLA had called for since the very outset. Reporting on a possible Macedonian-Albanian misunderstanding over the changes to the Macedonian Constitution and its ethnic or civic character, Skopje-based A-1 TV quoted unnamed foreign diplomats as saying that the negotiations would be truly successful if they resulted in an agreement on how to rephrase the preamble of the Constitution so that it does not mention any ethnic group. It would mark sufficient progress and a result which Prime Minister Georgijevski could offer to EU representatives in Luxembourg, on June 25, when another test for Macedonian politicians and their readiness to resolve all problems through dialogue is scheduled to take place. The continuation of dialogue leaves less and less room for the war option. Maybe excessive optimism is slightly out of place here, but to hope is human, is it not?

Iso Rusi

(AIM)