More Weapons are Coming

Not even after three months of conflict in northwestern parts of the country has the Macedonian leadership resolved its dilemma of whether to defeat the National Liberation Army by force of arms or in some other way. Still, new weapons are beginning to arrive, just in case

AIM Skopje, June 7, 2001

According to the June 5 issue of the Skopje daily Dnevnik, the Macedonian Defense Ministry has confirmed its purchase of two K-52 Alligator helicopters, informing the public that they are state of the art pieces of Russian military hardware, another four Mi-24 helicopters, six medical helicopters of U.S. make, and four Su-25 aircraft. The army has not ruled out the possibility of acquiring two modern T-84 tanks, missile systems and armored personnel carriers. It is assumed that Ukraine, whose defense minister, Aleksandar Kusmuk, recently visited Skopje, is playing an important role in procuring this equipment.

The report in Dnevnik was published on the day when the head of the Pentagon, Donald Rumsfield, arrived in Skopje for a 30-minute conversation with the Macedonian defense minister. The press has learned (or maybe assumes) that the guest from Washington protested behind closed doors Macedonia's returning to its "old love" -- Soviet and Russian technology. True, he didn't promise anything, or offered a better deal, at least not publicly.

The story of U.S. weapons is otherwise quite vague. Certain retired Macedonian generals recently said that top country officials shortly after Macedonia became independent had tried to decide whether to purchase military equipment from East-European or Western countries. Both options had their adherents. The facts spoke in favor of Eastern Europe: Macedonian officers coming mostly from the former Yugoslav People's Army were used to and trained on military equipment from the former Warsaw Pact, which was cheap and easily accessible on international arms markets. To turn towards the West, on the other hand, was useful for several reasons: officers would be acquainted with international military trends; integration into NATO structures, which was greatly desired, would be much easier; the future would come within reach... There was only one minor problem: the price! The West was not giving its weapons away, and Macedonia was strapped for cash.

As of recently, Macedonia seems to have turned to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Bulgaria in search of arms. On June 4, Yugoslav Defense Minister Slobodan Krapovic said at a press conference after a meeting with his Macedonian counterpart, Vlado Buckovcki, in Skopje, that his country's military industry "is ready to accommodate Macedonia." The offer stands a greater chance of acceptance given the fact that Macedonia would be able to use its share of the former Yugoslavia's assets to pay.

"It is no secret that at this point in the crisis we need both defensive and offensive arms. We spoke primarily of defensive weapons and equipment currently available in Yugoslavia," Buckovski said. He added that the two countries' "expert teams will immediately begin reviewing all possibilities for cooperation in the area of armament, and not only through the defense ministry but all other ministries, for the purpose of purchasing military equipment. "This is to say," Buckovski stressed, "there would be no mediators, and the prices would be favorable and fair."

The press frequently claimed that, throughout the past decade and despite an international arms embargo against Belgrade, Macedonia and Yugoslavia secretly showed a lot of mutual affection when the arms trade was in question. One case is still fresh: a number of local police, headed by the incumbent defense minister, Buckovski, scored an own goal by busting a Ministry of Defense's deal developing between the Serbian town of Cacak and the Macedonian town of Prilep. The blunder was widely publicized and certain military intelligence agents had to be dismissed.

Bulgaria's top officials also displayed considerable generosity during President Boris Trajkovski's visit to Sofia this week. A gift consisting of 150 tanks the Bulgarian government made to Macedonian Prime Minister Georgijevski in the winter of 1999, during his first visit to Bulgaria, is still well remembered. The Bulgarian news media now claim that another gift might follow, although an unfortunate circumstance -- the fact that Parliament was disbanded on the eve of elections -- prevents it from legally proceeding right away. The readiness of Bulgarian President Stojanov, Defense Minister Noev, and other officials, to give Macedonia military assistance is expected to continue.

At the beginning of the crisis there were reports that Croatia also played a certain role in this sector by shipping Oganj rocket launchers to the Macedonian front. The Croatian side confirmed this in its press but Macedonia denied the reports. Several days ago Macedonian Interior Minister Ljube Boskovski found himself under fire in connection to allegations that as a Croatian citizen (which is a possibility not recognized by law) he is suspected as having played a "certain role" in these arms deals.

The Western press, much more that the local, claims that, since the outset of the crisis, the army was feverishly procuring military equipment so that the annual defense budget (17 percent of DM1.7 billion) had already been used up by April. This is why Finance Minister Nikola Gruevski simultaneously announced budget cuts in all other sectors in favor of the army and police and an imminent recession. Experts warn, on the other hand, that if the current trend continues over the next six months, inflation will be out of control with unforeseeable consequences. But, that is an entirely different aspect of the problem...

According to available data, the army was totally unprepared for the current crisis: it had 93 operational tanks manufactured in Bulgaria and Eastern Europe, 112 howitzers, 40 M-48 light artillery pieces, several thousand grenade launchers but -- if Western sources are to be trusted -- not a single sniper rifle! At that time four Mi-24 helicopters were bought, pompously dubbed the "air cavalry" by both official and unofficial military sources. And that was about it.

As far as those supplies were concerned, they were mostly donations, and their quality was such that one could only take comfort in the proverb which said that gift horse should never be looked into mouth. Western donors sent completely obsolete radar equipment. The former, dismissed defense minister, Ljuben Paunovski, immediately before leaving office in mid April, presented some rather sorrowful facts: stocks of uniforms, protective equipment and food were almost nil. It remained unclear how much he contributed to such a state of affairs.

For days, weeks, and even months top state officials cannot agree on whether they should do away with the National Liberation Army by force of arms or in some other way. Western diplomats and military experts doubt Macedonia's security forces are up to the task.

Zeljko Bajic

(AIM)