Federation on Feet of Clay

SNP Guarding Milosevic

Due to its economic collapse and severe social circumstances the authorities in Serbia are forced to seek salvation in foreign donations and financial investments. In order to be able to rely on foreign aid Yugoslavia must meet its international obligations primarily to the Hague Tribunal. But the key to passing of this law, and the destiny of Yugoslavia are in the hands of the Montenegrins.

AIM Belgrade, June 4, 2001

The new authorities in Yugoslavia managed to normalise the relations with the world faster than Serbia succeeded to find a common language with Montenegro, the other member of the joint federal state. After parliamentary elections in Montenegro this job has become even more difficult and uncertain, because neither of the coalitions got a sufficiently powerful support of the electorate to be the reliable representative of its Republic in the talks with federal authorities and Serbia concerning the future of Yugoslavia. With the consent of the Liberals, “Victory of Montenegro” coalition will be able to form a minority government, which is therefrom insufficiently reliable, while the other coalition, “For Yugoslavia”, thanks to its rising rating in the Republic, has become a tough nut to crack on the federal level and it is therefore increasingly making it clear to its coalition partner in executing federal power that it has no intention to support Serb interests at all costs.

Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) which is in power in Serbia is doing its best to preserve Yugoslavia, but it has not a sufficiently powerful political partner in Montenegro that would guarantee a reliable and lasting agreement. Even in case of possible talks on the abolishment of the federal state the situation would be identical. That is how Serbia found itself with the double Montenegrin knot around its neck which it knows not how or with whom to disentangle.

Due to the catastrophic situation in its economy and the still undeveloped institutions of power which would give it the characteristics of a stable state, Serbia is in a hurry, but it is unable to resolve two key questions: the destiny of Yugoslavia and the cooperation with the Hague Tribunal – without Montenegro. It cannot resolve the former question individually with neither of Montenegrin coalitions which do not manifest the intention to begin talks on this topic with the Serbian party, and concerning the latter, it depends on the choice of Socialist People's Party (SNP) whose political leadership is not ready to accept the offered legal solution which prescribes extradition of the indicted for crimes committed in the wars on the territory of former SFRY to the Hague Tribunal.

Tightened by the double grip the authorities in Serbia are in a very difficult situation, because the date of the donors' conference is approaching and Yugoslavia expects to get aid of about 1.2 billion dollars from it, but the hopes may greatly turn out to be futile if the law on cooperation with the Hague Tribunal is not passed before the conference. Hardly a day passes without a warning arriving from the donors that the success of the donors' conference depends on the readiness of Yugoslavia to extradite the persons indicted for war crimes to the Hague. Primarily, they have in mind former president of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic, but apart from him, there are quite a few persons on the public and on the secret lists.

Montenegrin party (SNP) which is in power with DOS on the federal level is resisting extradition of the indicted explaining it with the stand of its membership which, as its leaders claim, must not be betrayed. Although SNP within the “For Yugoslavia” coalition won greater confidence of Montenegrin electorate than in previous elections, nowadays it is in a paradoxical situation in which if it persists in the inflexible stand concerning provisions of the drafted law on cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, it will endanger the survival of the existing federal government which operates thanks only to the money Serbia is allocating for the federal budget.

In its calculations DOS relies on the assumption that SNP will not sacrifice its power on the federal level and that in the end it will give its consent to passing of this law. If such political combinations turn out to be correct DOS will have to “pay” a certain price. It has already been included in the reached agreement that in reconstruction of the existing federal state, “For Yugoslavia” coalition would not be left out.

In the past three years the authorities in Montenegro have managed to transfer all state duties from the federal to the Republican level. It just lacks international recognition to become completely separate from Serbia, which would be the end of the third Yugoslavia. Although the authorities in Serbia are keen on preserving any form of Yugoslavia, accepting even the so-called minimum functional federation, the decision on the destiny of the federal state is left to Montenegro where the elections have shown that the electorate is divided into two.

For Serbia time is of crucial significance, and in Montenegro they see no reason to hurry, so that even the referendum on whether this Republic will remain in Yugoslavia or not was postponed for the beginning of next year. For the authorities in Serbia that is much too long, because for as long as the status of Yugoslavia is not resolved the accumulated problems in the economy cannot be efficiently tackled, nor can the borders be defined within which its decisions are effective.

Apart from the donors' conference into which big hope is invested, the Government of Serbia hopes that through privatisation of its economy it will collect the money needed for economic revival, but these expectations can also fail because Yugoslavia was proclaimed the most risky country for financial investments. With Montenegrin coalitions, regardless of whether they are in favour of Yugoslavia or advocate independence of Montenegro, the authorities in Serbia are in the position of a person around whose neck the noose is tightening, because the key to its way out of the difficult economic situation and the almost unbearable social position of majority of the population is in Montenegrin hands.

Ratomir Petkovic

(AIM)