Sinking Deeper into Trouble

Two simultaneous events are presently threatening Macedonia: the war near Kumanovo and the ever deeper polarization between the Macedonian and ethnic Albanian political parties inside the recently formed national unity coalition government. If not stopped, both will have devastating consequences

AIM Skopje, May 28,2001

It has been five days since the newest Macedonian army and police offensive began. It aims at taking control of the villages near Kumanovo which for almost one month have been held by the ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA). Macedonian security forces representatives initially explained the offensive as an operation to evacuate civilians, but soon began calling it a "struggle against terrorists."

The offensive began last Friday (May 24), in the morning, after a relatively peaceful period in which security forces sporadically shelled NLA positions from a safe distance and used helicopter gunships, and the NLA occasionally responded with small arms fire. Before the offensive the Macedonian public and political leaders were confused over what needed to be done: should every opportunity for a peaceful resolution be used to resolve the crisis or should a strong offensive be immediately launched on the villages held by the NLA. The dilemma was caused by the fact that several thousand civilians were caught in the crossfire and forced to spend their time in cellars. The International Red Cross managed to evacuate several dozen villagers, mostly elderly people and children, every day, amid growing shortages of food and water.

At the beginning of last week the idea of forming a corridor for the NLA guerrillas to leave Macedonia was first announced and almost immediately abandoned. The idea was proposed by Robert Frowick, an OSCE special representative, as a way to eliminate one major obstacle to starting the inter-ethnic dialogue -- the presence of armed people shooting at Macedonian security forces and controlling parts of the country's territory. The author of the idea said it was abandoned due to the danger of possible incidents occurring during the NLA's withdrawal and the problems the arrival of the guerrillas in Kosovo would create for KFOR and UMNIK. Several days later it turned out that Frowick had certain indirect contacts with NLA political representatives, and the Macedonian authorities were so displeased with his plan that they asked him to leave the country. At that time the Skopje-based TV A-1, quoting a member of the Macedonian president's security council, reported that the Macedonian army chief of staff, General Jovan Andrevski, via a retired U.S. two-star general assisting in "NATOizing" the Macedonian army, was delivering intelligence data to the NLA, helping it avoid any dangerous confrontation with Macedonian forces.

At that time the news media carried statements such as that of Macedonian President Boris Trajkovski that "we would not find it a problem to deal with the terrorists militarily. But they are using civilians as human shields and are trying to engage the army and police, which would cause a bloody civil war with many civilian casualties." He added that "there is a military and a political solution to the crisis, and Macedonia is trying to find the right one, one that will last." There was also a statement by Branko Crvenkovski, the leader of the Social Democratic Alliance which until recently was at the helm of the opposition and is as of recently a partner in the new government, who said that the military solution was the last option, after all others are exhausted, "because the price of the life of a woman or a child is great as a mountain." But the latest developments in relations between the Macedonian and ethnic Albanian political parties taking part in new coalition government, seem to offer another explanation for the sudden decision to launch the offensive before all other possibilities for a peaceful end to the crisis were exhausted, to protect civilians caught in between the two warring parties.

First the Macedonian Information Agency reported that the leaders of the party of Democratic Prosperity and the Democratic Party of Albanians, Imer Imeri and Arben Xhaferi, respectively, had signed in Pristina a document with NLA political representative Ali Ahmeti obliging them to cooperate and take joint action. An avalanche of public condemnations followed: "Xhaferi and Imeri sign document betraying Macedonia?" said the Nova Makedonija newspaper, and the Vest newspaper reported that "Xhaferi and Imeri force Macedonia to chose between war and capitulation. "Disappointed that trust was betrayed," President Trajkovski concluded that "if Xhaferi and Imeri do not renounce the platform, cooperation with them will be impossible."

The leaders of the ethnic Albanian parties, particularly Imer Imeri, believing that the Macedonian public failed to properly understand the platform he signed together with Xhaferi, tried to explain that its aim was establishing badly needed peace and despite all denials still claims that the president was informed that they were to meet with Ahmeti.

Initially, foreign diplomats also strongly responded to the signing of the declaration stressing that they disapproved of any attempts to promote the NLA into a political factor.

In doing so, no one even bothered to see what the much demonized Declaration of Albanian Leaders in Macedonia in Regard to the Peace and Reform Process in the Republic of Macedonia actually said. This paper stresses that the ethnic Albanian leaders in Macedonia, aware of the historic moment before the Republic of Macedonia, agree to act together on the basis of a broad national and social consensus aiming to reform the Republic of Macedonia into a democratic state of all its citizens and all its ethnic communities; that the consensus of the leaders is based on the acknowledgement of the fact that reforms proposed by the ethnic Albanians aim at preserving the integrity and multi-ethnic character of Macedonia; that they are aware that "ethnic territories" and "ethnic division" do not offer a solution and are detrimental to ethnic Albanians and peace in the region; that there is no military solution for the problems in the Republic of Macedonia; that the process of the country's transformation should go i the direction of Euro-Atlantic integration, and that they are aware that a solution should be sought through the political process inside the country, with the mediation of the U.S. and the EU. The agenda and its demands do not differ from what has been already agreed on in Macedonia and under EU pressure, except for an annex requiring that current NLA members should be reintegrated and re-socialized, destroyed villages rebuilt, and the victims of war given assistance. The process of dialogue is envisaged to take place through round table debates between the members of the current coalition government, chaired by the incumbent Macedonian president.

In such an atmosphere in which the public and the government were clearly split along ethnic lines, the Macedonian leadership opted for "an operation to save civilians" from the Kumanovo villages controlled by the NLA. As early as the first day, foreign news agencies reported that a dozen members of the Zimberi family were either killed or wounded. In the following days the number of casualties soared to about 60, and the death toll should be expected to continue to grow since the offensive is still in progress. The villages entered by Macedonian forces entered are now deserted; most of the villagers left for Kosovo or found refuge in the largest ethnic Albanian village in Macedonia, Aracinovo, near Skopje. On the evening of May 27 fierce fighting was reported near the village of Matejce. Thus the war and the increasing polarization of Macedonian and ethnic Albanian parties from the current coalition government, with the news media fueling the tension, are pushing the country deeper into trouble, from which its leaders are increasingly unlikely to pull it out of. All hopes are again turned to mediation or foreign pressure. EU senior official Javier Solana is supposed to again arrive in Skopje today, and yesterday Xhaferi and Imeri met at the U.S. embassy in Skopje with U.S. ambassador to Macedonia Mike Einik and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Europe James Sweigert. It is said that a new U.S. and European initiative was announced at the meeting.

Iso Rusi (AIM)