A Government With or Without PDP?

On Sunday night, after much complications the Macedonian Parliament finally managed to elect a "Government of political unity", which in the first place, should bring peace to the country and then establish a true and efficient inter-ethnic dialogue. But, according to the proverb that "such beginning such ending", chances for something like that to happen are rather slim.

AIM Skoplje, May 15, 2001

Macedonia has finally got a Government in which almost all Parliamentary parties participate. After having faced the war for two times in the past three months, the country is expecting this new Governm ent to firstestablish some kind of peace and then try to make up for what has been left undone after the situation calmed down around Tetovo - to establish a true and effective inter-ethnic dialogue as one solution for problems that have piled up over the last twenty years.

At the time when a true war was going on between members of the Macedonian NLA or National Liberation Army (NOA) and the Macedonian security forces around Kumanovo villages, which many civilians were caught in, Macedonia was in a serious dilemma how to pull the country out of this extremely critical situation. The Macedonian top state leadership played a card of the state of war, in other words: by relying on the strength of its security forces it wanted a war resolution of conflicts with NOA being of the opinion that this was a classical aggression which had come from Kosovo. On the other hand, this was the first time that the Albanian parties and Macedonian opposition were on the same side, considering the introduction of the state of war as counter-productive for halting the war conflicts and, on the other, as an interlude into dictatorship because the public and political life in the country would be practically suspended.

Negotiations about the new Government between the authorities and opposition took a long time and without any prospects of ending soon until the idea on the declaration of the state of war appeared - a drop that made the cup of European diplomats' patience run over. Immediately after that they sent Xhavier Solana and George Robertson to Skoplje to exert pressure on President Boris Trajkovski and Prime Minister Ljubco Georgijevski to abandon the idea on introducing the state of war and finally agree to form a Government of broad or great coalition.

In the days that followed, foreign diplomats in Skoplje, in the first place the British Ambassador Mark Dickinson, the American Ambassador Mike Ainick and the OSCE Special Envoy Robert Frowick put additional pressure on both sides (the authorities and opposition alike) in order to remove the last obstacles to the formation of the new Government. Particular pressure was brought to bear on the Albanian opposition Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP), which demanded the cessation of war operations around Kumanovo as a precondition for its joining the Government. At one moment, Prime Minister Georgijevski even said that "the Government will be formed with or without the PDP". When PDP's demand were met with the introduction of a 24-hour tacit ceasefire at the front around Kumanovo villages, as a result of inter-party conflicts because of the (non)acceptance of negotiations with the competitive Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) and division of offices, this party got into new troubles which seemed impossible to resolve. Finally, Prime Minister Georgijevski accepted for the PDP to directly negotiate with him instead with the DPA representatives, who were authorised to negotiate on behalf of the ruling coalition. Those well versed say that on the day the new Government was put to the vote, the PDP's "list of appointees" arrived to the party headquarters directly from the American Embassy. At that moment it seemed that the election of the Government of political unity would be only a formal act in Parliament.

But, on Sunday afternoon a new drama happened in the Macedonian Parliament. Prime Minister Georgijevski delivered a statement on the formation of new Government at the Parliament session, which according to protocol was attended by representatives of all segments of public life and practically the entire diplomatic corps. For reason only known to him personally, from the rostrum he changed the address the text of which had already been distributed to those assembled. Instead of a general term "extremist forces", which was agreed for use in Parliament already at the time of Tetovo conflicts, Georgijevski mentioned "terrorists", "para-military groups" and announced the establishment of new security forces so as to finally settle accounts with them. The PDP parliamentarians demanded a recess so that they could analyse Georgijevski's speech and announced the withdrawal of their agreement to join the new Government.

After that foreign diplomats moved from the Parliament's gallery into the premises where PDP delegates were and after hours of talks persuaded the indignant parliamentarians to participate in the session and vote for the new Government. However, the British and American Ambassadors to Skoplje and the OSCE Special Envoy did not succeed in persuading the PDP members who had been proposed new Government members (Abdurahman Aliti as Deputy Prime Minister, and Naser Ziberi as Justice Minister) to accept the appointment, nor delegate Ismet Ramadani to accept the post of Vice President of Parliament. Instead of them and at such short notice, the PDP had to nominate practically anonymous members from its ranks as new Government members.

After everything was said and done, the new Government was elected (new Ministers and their Deputies), as well as two new Presidents of Parliament from the opposition ranks. Foreign diplomats were able to breathe more easily, but it seems not for long. For, the tone of Prime Minister's speech created new dilemmas. Georgijevski is certainly sufficiently politically experienced to be aware that his remarks would provoke the reaction of PDP parliamentarians who had agreed to join the Government with much difficulty. The Skoplje "Morning News" (Utrinski vesnik) rightfully asked whether what had really happened was "an intentional harshness on Georgijevski's part or perhaps an alibi for the PDP".

The answer is that, by the looks of it, both things happened. Namely, at that session of Parliament Georgijevski was not the only to use harsh words. Chief of his party's parliamentary group also did it. And both before and after the session the media, controlled by his party, used and continued using the same vocabulary.

In that situation the PDP opted for an alternative that is at the very least problematic. It submitted to foreign diplomatic pressures to participate in the new Government and expressed its disagreement with what its Prime Minister considered to be its mandate, by sending the "second team" to his Government. Thus, the new Government is de facto "the Government both with and without the PDP". It includes this party's representatives, but compared to those who at the last moment decided against joining it, their capacities are vastly disadvantageous for the PDP. This will undoubtedly be a handicap for the PDP and an advantage for the opposing parties in Government, at least in Government's deliberations. PDP will have to assume the responsibility for mistakes and inexperience of its members in the new Government who will not be able to react quickly, but will have to consult with party leadership in "protecting party interests", which will both take time and prove ineffective in most situations.

But, the new Government will not be the problem only for the PDP. What the Parliament session at which it was elected undoubtedly showed, points to the old-new polarisation of parties in it. There is an impression that for Georgijevski personally, the formation of the new Government will mark the beginning of troubles both within his own party (those who lost positions they got used to, are dissatisfied because they will lose all benefits and it is also impossible to predict the effects of removing the rather strong Dosta Dimovska from the Government), as well as on the general political level (with the approaching extraordinary parliamentary elections to be scheduled for next January, the hitherto opposition leader Branko Crvenkovski will certainly bring to surface the old scandals like the "bugging affair" or the part of Georgijevski and VMRO-DPMNE's leadership in corruption). In this way, it seems that Georgijevski has resorted to the strategy "the worse the better".

On the one hand, it will serve to prove that the new Government, which has only partial responsibility, will be no more efficient than his previous one and, on the other, it will open a way for the return to "fundamental party politics". Namely, evident are Georgijevski's efforts to present himself and his party as protectors of "Macedonian national interests" - a strategy, which by definition, has Albanians and their political representatives on the opposing side. In that context even the generally accepted solution of the problem with Albanian extremists acquires the dimension of a showdown with the Albanians as the ones responsible for all troubles in the region. It is not hard to guess how will this affect the establishment and results of the still uninitiated inter-ethnic dialogue. For, the opening of old-new inter-ethnic fronts and inefficiency of the new Government will only strengthen the NOA positions and homogenise the Macedonian bloc.

That is why Western diplomats here do not hide their fear that the potential of this Government of political unity has melted away even before it started functioning. The announced visits of Solana and Swedish Foreign Minister, Ms. Ann Lind, as EU Chairperson in Office, are just a part of European efforts at keeping things under control and at continuing to persuade local politicians not to turn the events into direction from which there is no return.

ISO RUSI

(AIM)