Chaos and War, or a Protectorate?

The Macedonian prime minister has announced that a state of war could be introduced by the middle of the week. According to the Macedonian Constitution, a state of war can be declared in the event of an attack by another country, if there is a danger of such an attack, or if a country had decided to attack. If two-thirds of Macedonia's Parliament votes in favor of declaring a state of war, that will de jure mean it has accepted the prime minister's claim that an attack is coming from Kosovo. Thus the U.N. and NATO, in the form of UNMIK and KFOR, will be marked as aggressors against Macedonia!

AIM Skopje, May 6, 2001

On May 5, while entering and leaving a meeting between top state officials and President Boris Trajkovski upon his return from the U.S., Macedonian Prime Minister Ljupco Georgijevski told journalists gathered in front of the parliament building that what is going on in Macedonia is war, that it is a direct confrontation with "the Albanian factor" and aggression from Kosovo. He underlined this by stating that incidents were happening on the northern border, that ethnic Albanian extremists forces were under the command of individuals from Kosovo, and that foreign mercenaries were fighting side by side with them. He added that a declaration of a state of war could be expected by the middle of next week, that is, May 8 or May 9. He called on ethnic Albanians to demonstrate their loyalty and to "finally decide which side they are on."

The session of Parliament that was scheduled for May 4, during which he was supposed to deliver a report on political and security conditions, was postponed for May 8 at his request. President Trajkovski was also supposed to address Parliament, immediately upon his return from a visit to the U.S. and a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush.

According to certain media outlets, at the session Prime Minister Georgijevski was to also reveal to the public a file on the activities of the ethnic Albanian National Liberation Army, the Macedonian KLA, which a part of the public understood as a final split between the chief coalition partners in the government composed of the VMRO-DPMNE and the Democratic Party of Albanians. The day the session was to be held, a VMRO-DPMNE spokesman said that the coalition was seriously shaken and that there was no communication between the major coalition partners. Most Macedonian media outlets reported that the opposition SDSM, in negotiations on the forming of a new government with the VMRO-DPMNE that would included the opposition as well, insisted that ties between the current coalition partners not be severed. In other words, it meant that the DPA was about to leave the government, which was threatening to add to the chaotic situation.

After the killing of eight Macedonian soldiers and police near the village of Vejce, near Popova Sapka, on April 28, in an area which, according to the Macedonian authorities, was supposed to be free of extremists, chaos appeared to have gained the upper hand in Macedonia. After the funeral of four police officers in Bitolj, locals attacked some 40 stores and restaurants owned by ethnic Albanians and Macedonian Muslims. The riots continued the next day. Similar events occurred in Skopje as well: several private stores were torched, and one person was killed when masked gunmen attacked the Lozana restaurant, owned by an ethnic Albanian. Attacks also took place in several other towns in Macedonia...

Following an incident in which NLA guerrillas murdered two Macedonian soldiers and abducted one on May 3, Macedonian security forces launched a campaign in the region of 12 villages near Kumanovo which is still in progress. Forces located outside of the villages are pummeling the region with heavy artillery, then dispatching helicopters to continue the assault, after which tanks are called in. According to reports, the army has not entered these villages, which Macedonian security forces say are controlled by the NLA.

Despite several calls by Macedonian authorities, the local population, mostly ethnic Albanians, did not leave the villages. According to the Macedonian side, NLA guerrillas are using the population as a "living shield," but DPA vice president Menduh Thaci said the population does not trust Macedonian security forces. According to official estimates, there is at least 3,000 people in four of the villages (Vaksince, Slutcane, Orizare and Otlja) alone.

Macedonian Army General Staff Spokesman Col. Blagoj Markovski said the army is shelling "strictly selected and profitable (!?) targets," meaning "command posts, machine-gun, mortar and sniper bunkers, and positions of special operations and terrorist forces." The other side, however, says houses full of local people are being systematically shelled. Speaking on a local Skopje TV station Col. Markovski summed up the effects of the offensive -- Macedonian army forces have destroyed 14 various positions, eight mortar sites, seven sniper bunkers, three ammunition dumps and one mortar battery. Markovski explained that ground troops have not been used because this could cause "numerous casualties on both sides." The head of the OSCE office in Macedonia, Carlo Ungaro, said that there were at least seven civilian casualties in the villages in question, and Menduh Thaci said the figure was at least 10, including a 9-year-old girl.

In the afternoon of May 6 the Office of the Macedonian president issued a news release saying that the developments of the past two to three months realistically required that a state of war be introduced, and that the president will start consultations with the heads of political parties and other relevant factors. A press conference was held at the Kumanovo barracks and government spokesman Antonio Milososki said the government will urge Parliament to declare a state of war on May 8, adding casually that it will consult the international community, but, Macedonia being a sovereign state, it will have the final say.

The release and the press conference were publicized after the news that came from Sweden. From Norrkoping, where a meeting of EU foreign ministers was held, an appeal was sent to the Macedonian authorities not to introduce a state of war. At the time this report is being written, EU foreign policy and security official Javier Solana is expected to arrive in Skopje, followed by NATO Secretary General George Robertson.

According to the Macedonian Constitution a state of war can be declared by the Parliament, by a two-thirds majority vote and on a proposal from the Macedonian president, government, or 30 MPs. If conditions are such that Parliament cannot convene, a state of war can be declared by the president. The Constitution envisages three situations warranting such a move: if there is a danger of an attack by a foreign country, if the country has been attacked by another, or if a country has decided to attack Macedonia. If a state of war is declared, all power is assumed by the government and the president, who is also the commander in chief of the armed forces.

During the last several months the authorities have severely violated the Constitution. Namely, the army was used inside Macedonia although a state of war was not declared, despite present conflict. If a state of war is declared, it would de jure confirm the claims of the Macedonian prime minister that the clashes are due to "aggression from Kosovo." Currently, Kosovo is ruled by UNMIK (civilian matters) and KFOR (military matters). Thus, the U.N. and NATO would for the first time be declared aggressors against a sovereign country.

Despite all this however rumor has it that regardless of the chaotic situation in the country, a national unity government that will include the opposition will be formed following visits by various foreign officials. In other words, the DPA will not leave the government, and the coalition will be expanded to include other political parties.

Therefore Macedonia faces two options: either a minority government (without the DPA which has said it will step down if a state of war is declared) and the Macedonian president will say "No" to the West and introduce a state of war, or Solana and Robertson will support the forming of a national unity government (or help find some other solution).

When at the end of last week the latest issue of the Albanian-language Lobi weekly urged the establishment of an international protectorate in Macedonia, which it said was on the verge of complete chaos, a few believed that to be a serious way to overcome the paralysis plaguing the government (the polarization between the VMRO-DPMNE and the DPA made it impossible for either the government or Parliament to function, and the president does not have any special powers in times of peace). But in a matter of days, an international protectorate or some other solution based on the greater involvement of the international community, has become one possible way out of the crisis in Macedonia.

Iso Rusi

(AIM)