How Many Inhabitants Does Bosnia Have?

The Only Country Without a Population Census

AIM Sarajevo, April 28, 2001

How many inhabitants does B&H have? The only correct answer would be: No one knows! Namely, B&H is the only European country which has not and will not organise a population census this year. The consequence that follows is that in the next ten years no one will be able to know precisely the basic figure - the exact population of B&H, let alone a more detailed demographic picture of Bosnians and Herzegovinians. Incidentally, all over the world population censuses are regularly conducted once every ten years, i.e. in the first year of the decade.

The official explanation of the reasons why B&H will not conduct a population census this year boils down to - "there is no money". According to rough estimates, population census in B&H would cost some DM 10 million and, at first sight, this explanation sounds reasonable. But, knowing that in the past five years dozens of millions of dollars of state money were spent in B&H for all sorts of rubbish, then the cost of census is negligible. The authorities somehow thought it normal that the international community would cover the census costs, while foreigners did not show any particular interest of joining the "game of counting Bosnians and Herzegovinians" with additional funds.

Essentially, various political and quasi-national interests are behind postponing the counting of B&H population for another ten years. Protectors of national interests, who until few months ago held all levers of power in their hands, had their reasons for avoiding the census. The Bosniac representatives feared that at this moment it could serve as a key argument to advocates of the "current situation on the ground" created by ethnic cleansing during the war. And since, even five years after the end of war, the process of the return of refugees and exiled is progressing slowly, the 1991 situation (when the last population census was conducted in B&H) is taken as a starting point for all "national quotas" in the division of power at the local level.

The census was also unacceptable for the up-to-recently-ruling HDZ. The current number of Croats in B&H, as well as of all other nationalities in B&H for that matter, is manipulated in accordance with the needs of everyday politics. If this figure is needed for securing the money, for example from the budget of the neighbouring Republic of Croatia, then by "inflating" the actual number of Croats in B&H, especially of war invalids and families of killed persons, it is possible to get more money. Until now, the HDZ managed these funds at its own discretion. If the usual domestic competition "who has suffered more in the war" is in question, then it is desirable to reduce the number of Croats in B&H as much as possible so as to corroborate the thesis on their large-scale exodus.

Basically, the same principle goes for the until recent political representatives of Serbs and Bosniacs in B&H who assessed the number of their "flock" by applying the "rule of thumb". According to demographic experts, authorities in Republika Srpska also increased on paper the actual number of people living in this entity. Therefore, there are great reservations in relation to the official statistical data of Republika Srpska according to which almost 1.4 million of people currently live in this entity. According to somewhat more reliable estimates of statisticians from F B&H, approximately 2.8 million people currently reside in this entity. One of the reasons why the authorities had been tacitly tolerating the reporting of a larger number of inhabitants in B&H than is actually the case is partly the external debt of B&H. During earlier negotiations with foreign creditors a gentlemen's agreement has been reached that over USD 100 million of pre-war debt would be repaid when per capita gross domestic product exceeds USD 1,150. In this case that means: the more inhabitants "on paper" the lower "per capita" gross domestic product so that the repayment of these debts will have to wait.

And while motives behind the fact that B&H will not have a population census this year are rather debatable, direct and indirect damages are quite evident. The population census was expected to provide answers to another precise question: how many people have been killed in B&H during four-year war. Such data have never been officially published, but only manipulated in line with the purposes of everyday politics. Determining the truth about the war in B&H, which also implied establishing the actual number of casualties, is one of the key preconditions for a happier future of these parts. If anything could be learned from past history of these regions, then it is a fact that manipulations with numbers of killed members of one nation in the past war were always an introduction into a new war in which "accounts were being squared" and which brought hundreds of thousands of new victims.

The only chance for B&H to determine the actual number of its inhabitants - the number of those waiting abroad to return home and the number of those who have definitely decided to start a new life in USA, Australia, Canada or some other country of immigration - was this year's population census, which would not be organised.

The data on the number of B&H citizens, the number of those who chose to live somewhere else, as well as on their age structure and skill pattern might represent the most devastating balance of the ten-year rule of national soul- curators and their care for their subjects. Besides, by its failure to conduct a population census, Bosnia and Herzegovina, as a country in economic transition and in desperate need of fresh money, i.e. direct foreign investments, has brought itself in a very unfavourable position, primarily in relation to its closest neighbours - Croatia and Yugoslavia. Before investing a considerable sum of money every serious inve stor will first want to know the size of the market he is dealing with, i.e. how many people live there; what is their age and gender structure; how many of them are illiterate and how many literate, how many have university degree and how many only elementary education; do they live in their own houses or are subtenants. He will also want to know many other similar things that give a precise picture about a country and its population. Not to mention the more sophisticated indicators, such as the number of inhabitants who use PC and Internet. Unfortunately, B&H will not be able to provide these figures in the coming 10 years, while 1991 data after all war and post-war population migrations are practically useless.

Instead, those interested can speculate with incomplete figures, because until 2011 no one in B&H will be able to answer with certainty that banal question: "How many inhabitants do you have"?

Drazen SIMIC

(AIM-Sarajevo)