Belgrade Reactions to Montenegrin Elections

Suppressed Satisfaction

AIM Belgrade, April 27, 2001

Since they took over power in Serbia, leaders of Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) have never been so united like last Monday when it became clear that Djukanovic's option which advocates independence of this republic had not won an outright victory in parliamentary elections in Montenegro. At least not outright enough to enable it to think about organising a referendum without it being a first-class political adventure. In official reactions from Belgrade there was no excessive malice, but mostly suppressed and controlled satisfaction because of the fact that the elections seems to have brought Montenegro closer to the negotiating table and talks on redefining the federal state and at the same time removed it further away from the long desired seat in the United Nations which belongs only to sovereign states. Only in occasional statements mostly of the people from lower echelons of DOS, one could discern certain gloating over the outcome of the elections – allegations that Djukanovic's option was “totally defeated”, and that the other option “won morally and in a sublime manner”.

Repeating in one way or another the thesis that Montenegrin elections have confirmed the “vitality of the idea of a joint state” and the feebleness of the project on independence, leaders of DOS mostly stressed in their statements that time was coming for negotiations, and later on (most probably in autumn) for new federal elections. President of FRY Vojislav Kostunica believes, for instance, that it is necessary after such an obvious split of the electorate in Montenegro that political protagonists in this republic first reach an agreement which would then open the possibility for negotiations with Yugoslav and Serbian authorities. In his second reaction to the past elections in Montenegro, Kostunica officially proposed to Podgorica talks on the joint state that would be “acceptable for both federal units and all ethnic communities”. At the meeting with the president of the Swiss confederation he described such a federal state as a “minimum, but operational federation”. Later that day, while congratulating the Day of the State to all the citizens of FRY (which, by the way, is a holiday only in Serbia, not in Montenegro), Kostunica appealed on all the relevant political protagonists to begin preparations for the amendment of the federal Constitution as soon as possible. According to the opinion of the President of FRY, necessary investments will not arrive either to Serbia which does not know what its status is, or to the divided, at daggers drawn, Montenegro, but only to a stable and firm joint state.

One of those who has also appealed for a dialogue in the past few days was federal foreign minister Goran Svilanovic. His appeal seems to have contained more caution than those of others from DOS. Svilanovic most probably had in mind the difference between the two current platforms (Serbian and Montenegrin) when he warned in the first statement after the elections: “If the result of the dialogue is a construction that will have no chance to actually operate, I think that we should not promise a community in advance because it is not the interest of the citizens of Serbia”. With this statement Svilanovic just reminded that long and tedious negotiations await Belgrade and Podgorica and uncertain rapprochement, and that despite new signs of stamina of the federal state, nobody was relieved after the elections in Montenegro. Based on some unofficial reactions of the politicians in Belgrade one could reach the conclusion that the outcome of the elections does not suit anybody and that many important issues concerning the destiny of the federal state may for a long time remain blocked because of the current stalemate in Montenegro. In negotiations that will follow everything will rotate around the question of the seat in the UN. Belgrade is against disassociation in order to later formally make a new state community, while Podgorica rejects everything less than full independence and its own seat at the East River.

The only one who in his comment of the outcome of the voting in Montenegro did not fit into the suppressed and controlled satisfaction of DOS was Nenad Canak, chairman of the assembly of Voivodina. One could describe Canak's reaction as “controlled disappointment” with the news from Podgorica. According to him the elections in Montenegro have shown that in this space “it will be necessary for a long time to come to fight with the relics of Milosevic's false Yugoslavism, which is in fact the platform of Greater Serbia”. The elections have shown, however, Canak added, that the beating about the bush of the ruling coalition in Montenegro will be limited by the sharp stand of the Liberal League and its advocating the independent state. The chairman of the Assembly of Voivodina also expressed conviction that the referendum would be scheduled soon, that Montenegrin road to independence would be quite “velvet” and that it would then bring about independent Serbia. In that case, the question of Voivodina would also be raised, Canak claimed arriving in fact at his favourite and eternal topic.

Unity of DOS in the evaluation of the outcome of the past elections is quite understandable when one has in mind that the “Montenegrin issue” was considered for a long time as one of the most dangerous ones for further survival of this political organisation. In case of a clearcut victory of the pro-Montenegrin option it would have been quite realistic to expect dissolution of FRY perhaps as soon as the end of this year. A quick disappearance of Yugoslav community would automatically block or at least postpone negotiations with foreign partners on financial arrangements without which quick recovery of the economy would be impossible. Many of these negotiations have already begun and foreign partners (like indeed local negotiators, too) would at least have to know the borders of the state and stability of institutions of those who they intend to help. Possible independence of Montenegro would inevitably cause new elections in Serbia which would be in quite a new situation and in quite different state framework. And new elections at the moment when serious reforms are just beginning are something many in DOS would like to avoid. DOS quite certainly would not run in these new elections as a whole, its split would come too soon from the standpoint of the jobs it has started. In political struggle between different factions of DOS that would inevitably take place a lot of time and energy would be wasted and Serbia would have to wait again for the reforms and new laws which must be passed. The results of the elections in Montenegro have temporarily set aside all these fears and raised hopes in DOS that with the help of the international community which still insists on the formula of “democratic Montenegro as part of democratic Yugoslavia”, through negotiations FRY could become quite a decent and stable state.

What after last week's elections lies ahead in the relations between Podgorica and Belgrade was quite picturesquely put in a single sentence by Zoran Zivkovic, federal mister of internal affairs: “We are in the field, waiting for the other team, the ball is on their part of the field”. If it is true that Milo Djukanovic, President of Montenegro, has secretly dropped by Belgrade on Thursday evening in order to talk to Serbia's Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, it could mean that after all the “other team” will some day agree to come out into the filed.

Nenad Lj. Stefanovic

(AIM)