European Therapy

The week that is drawing to its end has shown possible effects primarily of European diplomacy. Like in some other previous cases in the Balkans, it proved to be mercilessly true again that those who might wish to find a solution cannot do it, and those who could still act as onlookers

AIM Skoplje, March 23, 2001

Head of Macedonian diplomacy Srdjan Kerim spent the first day of the working week in Brussels where he attended the ministerial meeting of the "fifteen" which was actually an official and unofficial announcement that in what is increasingly acquiring the form of the "crisis in Macedonia" the initiative is taken by the European Union. Some time later this meeting of foreign ministers of the European Union members was joined by George Robertson, Secretary General of NATO, which was meant to underline the significance that the international community was attributing to this problem. In the seat of the European Union Kerim received such a quantity of support that it was hard for him to take it all home on his own, so High Representative of EU for security and foreign policy Javier Solana helped him. That is how in jut two years, from the personification of sturdiness of the most powerful military alliance in the case of bombing FR Yugoslavia, don Javier turned into a peace-maker.

There were moments in Solana's visit that have not been clarified to the last detail, such as the secret dinner at President Trajkovski's where all the leaders of political parties were present, at least that is what is assumed, and where things were discussed that were confidential. What was at that moment important for the Macedonian public was that Solana had not brought a proposal of the EU on federalisation or cantonisation of the country; Robertson also spoke along these lines in Brussels that Monday. The distinguished guest from Brussels had not brought the proposal for cease-fire either, although as it turned out later, nobody would dare vow that the ultimatum to the extremists was not the result of reflections of European diplomacy. The greatest profit from that visit was certainly signing of the prepared Declaration by two parliamentarian parties of the Albanians - the Democratic Party of the Albanians and the Party of Democratic Prosperity - in Solana's presence. The following is stated in the Declaration: "We are in favour of peace together.

We appeal on the groups that have taken up arms on the territory of our country to lay them down and return home! We condemn the use of force for the achievement of political goals. There is no room for force in a democratic country. It makes political dialogue impossible and blocks the way to Europe. We believe that when peace is re-established, dialogue can also be re-established among all political protagonists in Macedonia". In the declaration there is an appeal on Macedonian Government to accelerate the reforms which refer to inter-ethnic relations and the European Union is asked to help in carrying them out. "This was just the initial indicator that will two or three days later, when Solana returns to Skopje, resemble an embryo of EU's policy in the crisis: to prepare the ground among political parties of the Albanians in both Macedonia and Kosovo, and in Albania for creating a special quarantine for the extremists who are waging war in Macedonia.

Following in Solana's footsteps, head of Russian diplomacy Igor Ivanov arrived in Skopje. The media immediately connected his mission with Moscow's offer to supply Macedonia with arms. In diplomatic sense nothing much was expected from that visit, because in the past decade Macedonia has never managed to establish a serious dialogue. As maliciously concluded by certain Western diplomats, with Ivanov's visit Moscow has demonstrated that it still has better intelligence officers than it has diplomats: Ivanov stated to the journalists that the Liberation National Army had 5 thousand combatants which is an estimate much bolder than any of the ones stated in Western media; nobody says that it is not true.

On Wednesday United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1345 which refers to the situation in the south of Serbia and Macedonia; certain diplomatic circles assessed that it was passed somehow as a matter of routine, almost reluctantly. The Resolution demands from the extremists to lay down arms and start a political dialogue. A little more subtlety would not have hurt because the situation in Macedonia is significantly different from the one in the south of Serbia, the problems have their specific characteristics which the diplomats in the East River should have devoted more attention to. But for the government in Skopje it is important that the Resolution was passed unanimously which eliminated fear that the Chinese would make it clear that they had not forgotten the rash recognition of Taiwan by Macedonia two years ago.

On Thursday Javier Solana returned to Skopje. This time in the company of the “European three” consisting of Swedish foreign minister Anna Lind, her Belgian colleague Louis Michelle, and European commissioner for foreign affairs Chris Pattin. The press conference held after the talks was interesting for the messages it conveyed.

The chairman of the Union Anna Lind said that the European three had arrived in Skopje to express strong support to democratic and multi-ethnic Macedonia and to help it in its integration into European institutions, and the first step in it would be signing of the Agreement on Association and Stabilisation, on April 9. “It must be perfectly clear that there is no room for extremism and violence in Europe nowadays. The message is very clear: the extremists will not achieve anything by violence. We wish to see an all-inclusive dialogue between selected representatives in Macedonia, and the EU will support that both politically and economically”, said Ms. Lind. She added that her country, Sweden, had reached a decision to reinforce KFOR with its 200 soldiers in order to make infiltration across the border more difficult.

Chris Pattin promised assistance and money to Macedonian government in building a multi-ethnic society. He announced that the Union would allocate five million euros for the university in Albanian language. “It will be difficult for me to explain to the members of the European Union why I am asking for so much money for reconstruction of Kosovo. I am not threatening anyone, but if the leaders of the Albanians in Kosovo do not condemn violence anywhere, it will be difficult for me to explain to the countries of the EU and to European parliamentarians why their money is given for reconstruction of Kosovo”, said Pattin. And indeed, he repeated a similar message in Pristina...

On Friday, President Trajkovski participated at the summit of the European Union in Stockholm where he repeated the stand of his government. The European leadership repeated once again its support to Macedonia and passed a short Declaration in which it appealed on the citizens of Macedonia to choose Europe and cooperation and not violence and isolation.

European activities have shown all the power (and impotence) of diplomacy whose main principle seems to be to “put out fire” solely by means of financial donations and not quite clear diplomatic pressure, when it is already too late. Only now has someone remembered that the European Union has, in relation to the whole region, invested the least into Macedonia in the past crisis-affected decade: out of 5.5 billion euros only 380 million!

Those who could (or at least believe they could) do more in this phase are disinterestedly looking on – the Unites States and NATO. Obviously caught by surprise by the attitude of Washington, the Europeans justify it as the result of the change of the administration in the White House and learning of Bush Junior. The most powerful political and military alliance on the planet is just elaborating its plan of action manifesting the sluggishness of the its-decade old bureaucratic machinery. Some countries are promising that they would help with troops in order to enable better control of the border from the side of Kosovo, others are announcing aid to Macedonia in military equipment. But all that takes time... And Macedonia is in a hurry; the assistance better arrive today than tomorrow! Because, tomorrow may be too late.

AIM Skopje

ZELJKO BAJIC